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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 28 items for :

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  • Empirical Studies of Trade x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
World Trade in Services: Evidence from A New Dataset
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Ke Wang
Using a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014, this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an increasingly important component of global production. A detailed analysis of patterns and stylized facts reveals that exports of services are not only gaining strong momentum and catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could also trigger a new wave of trade globalization. Research applications of the trade in service dataset on structural transformation, resilience, labor reallocation, and income distribution are outlined.
Keywords:
WP; export; service export; fce4d6; developing country; value; Trade in services; sector-level data; technology; globalization; economic growth; export growth; export service; goods export; export data; export value; global economy; Service exports; Exports; Export performance; Services sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Newly Industrialized Economies in Global Value Chains
Dominik Boddin
In light of increased vertical specialization and the dominance of trade in intermediates rather than final goods, this paper seeks to raise awareness of the limitations of traditional trade measures on a gross output basis. To do so, this paper uses the WIOD, a world input output table, as an alternative trade measure to analyze the role of six newly industrialized economies in global value chains. The differences between measures on a gross output basis and value added basis are striking. Export shares measured by both methods differed by more than 20 percent for some industries. These findings highlight the need for more sophisticated world input output data to form a better understanding of global trade dynamics and country interdependencies.
Keywords:
WP; value added; Global Value Chains; Vertical Specialization; Newly Industrialized Economies; export industry structure; export share; export vector; trade connection; export value; consumption share; Exports; Consumption; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Price and Income Elasticity of Indian Exports—The Role of Supply-Side Bottlenecks
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
and
Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
This paper estimates the short-term and long-run price and income elasticity of Indian exports, and investigates the role of supply-side bottlenecks in shaping India’s export demand relationship. We use disaggregated export volume data for 45 Indian industries over the period 1990-2013, as well as industry-specific international relative prices, for estimation. Our results indicate that Indian exports are sensitive to international relative-price competitiveness, world demand, and energy shortages. In addition, binding supply-side constraints (notably energy shortages) dampen price responsiveness in the short-term.
Keywords:
WP; export; price; product; elasticity; India; export demand; manufacturing; income and price elasticity; energy shortages; export demand equation; merchandise export data; goods export; volume indices; elasticity estimate; industries export; export demand function; export destination; income elasticity; disaggregated export datum; export basket; India's export basket; Exports; Export performance; Price elasticity; Personal income; Export prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Emerging Market Heterogeneity: Insights from Cluster and Taxonomy Analysis
Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
and
Miss Yuan Gao
This paper studies growth patterns in Emerging Market Economies (EMs) from the perspective on clusters and taxonomies. First, it documents developments over the past five decades in EMs and uses a cluster analysis to better understand convergence and the investment-growth nexus. Second, it looks at the performance of EMs since 2000 and develops a taxonomy to classify countries according to their factor endowments as well as their real and financial external linkages. The taxonomy offers insights on growth dynamics pre and post the global financial crisis. Results highlight the high degree of heterogeneity in EMs and the need for more granular and targeted near and long-term policy advice.
Keywords:
WP; cluster; growth rate; EMs; growth cluster; emerging markets; growth; heterogeneity; cluster analysis; taxonomy; net commodity export deficit; groups EMs; unemployment rate; commodity price booms; investment-growth-unemployment nexus; terms of trade shock; investment share; commodity-exporting EMs; EMs group; Total factor productivity; Consumption; Terms of trade; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?
Rahul Anand
,
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
, and
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
Structural transformation depends not only on how much countries export but also on what they export and with whom they trade. This paper breaks new ground in analyzing India’s exports by the technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of the export basket. We identify five priority areas for policies: (1) reduction of trade costs, at and behind the border; (2) further liberalization of FDI including through simplification of regulations and procedures; (3) improving infrastructure including in urban areas to enhance manufacturing and services in cities; (4) preparing labor resources (skills) and markets (flexibility) for the technological progress that will shape jobs in the years ahead; and (5) creating an enabling environment for innovation and entrepreneurship to draw the economy into higher productivity activities.
Keywords:
WP; product space; export basket; service export sophistication; export product; Indian export; merchandise export; service exports exhibit; India; Exports; Manufacturing; Services; Growth; Trade; Innovations; product space network; vis-a-vis peer EMs; network map; network map of merchandise export; space network map of merchandise export; Service exports; Comparative advantage; Personal income; Global; East Asia; Middle East; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
Research Bulletin, June 2014
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; bulletin; journal website; policy relevance; author guideline; debt challenge; sample content; Current account deficits; Trade balance; Income inequality; Current account; Personal income; Global; Caribbean; Baltics; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance: An Assessment and Way Forward
Muneesh Kapur
and
Rakesh Mohan
The macroeconomic policy response in India after the North Atlantic financial crisis (NAFC) was rapid. The overshooting of the stimulus and its gradual withdrawal sowed seeds for inflationary and BoP pressures and growth slowdown, then exacerbated by domestic policy bottlenecks and volatility in international financial markets during mid-2013. Appropriate domestic oil prices and fiscal consolidation will contribute to the recovery of private sector investment. Fiscal consolidation would also facilitate a reduction in inflation, which would moderate gold imports and favorably impact real exchange rate and current account deficit.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; current account; central bank; inflation expectation; WPI inflation; Capital Flows; Exports; Fiscal Policy; Gold; Growth; India; Monetary Policy; Oil Demand; Savings; wholesale price index; consumer inflation; balance of payments; short-term debt; headline WPI inflation; private sector investment; Inflation; Imports; Deposit rates; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Emerging Economy Business Cycles: Financial Integration and Terms of Trade Shocks
Rudrani Bhattacharya
,
Ila Patnaik
, and
Madhavi Pundit
This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle.
Keywords:
WP; Macroeconomics; real business cycles; emerging market DSGE models; volatility; terms of trade; terms of trade shock; business cycle volatility; terms of trade fluctuation; terms of trade volatility; net barter terms of trade; volatility decrease; tot shock; current account volatility; a number of emerging economies; Financial integration; Trade balance; Business cycles; Current account; Africa; East Asia; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012, Asia and Pacific
Managing Spillovers and Advancing Economic Rebalancing
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Barring the realization of downside risks to the global economy, growth in the Asia and the Pacific region is expected to gain momentum over the course of 2012, according to this report, and now projected at 6 percent in 2012, rising to about 6½ percent in 2013. Stronger economic and policy fundamentals have helped buffer the region's economies against the global financial crisis, by limiting adverse financial market spillovers and ameliorating the impact of deleveraging by European banks, but a sharp fall in exports to advanced economies and a reversal of foreign capital flows would have a severe impact on the region. The region's policymakers now face the difficult task of calibrating the amount of insurance needed to support stable, noninflationary growth. Some Asian and Pacific economies can afford to lengthen the pause in the normalization of their macroeconomic policies that was initiated when the global recovery stalled late in 2011; others may need a faster return to more neutral policy stances. Similarly, the pace of fiscal consolidation should be calibrated to country-specific circumstances. Additional chapters in the report discuss whether China is rebalancing and the particular challenges facing Asian low-income and small island economies.

Keywords:
REO; economy; China; FDI inflow; Asia; systemic economy; FDI growth; financial market spillover; FDI pattern; IMF staff calculation; Exports; Imports; Credit; Foreign direct investment; Foreign currency exposure; Asia and Pacific; Global; East Asia; Australia and New Zealand; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
India's Growth Spillovers to South Asia
Ms. Iyabo Masha
and
Ding Ding
This study investigates the role of India's economy in explaining the observed growth in South Asia, taking into consideration other sources of growth endogenous to the countries in the region. Since a review of key variables indicates that India's bilateral trade and financial linkages with South Asian countries (SAC) are relatively weak, the paper analyses the spillover effects by focusing on growth more generally with India's growth as an explanatory variable. The results of the panel growth regressions suggest that India's growth has good explanatory power for growth in other SAC after 1995.
Keywords:
WP; India; trade; South Asian country; economy; growth spillover; Spillovers; growth linkages; regional integration; South Asia; aggregate FDI outflow; spillover impact; India's growth; transformation Europe; ASEAN-China Free Trade Area; China-ASEAN trade; trade restrictiveness; Exports; Imports; Foreign direct investment; Trade balance; Southern Africa; Africa; East Asia; Asia and Pacific