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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 99 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Price of De-Risking Reshoring, Friend-Shoring, and Quality Downgrading
Diego A. Cerdeiro
,
Parisa Kamali
,
Siddharth Kothari
, and
Dirk V Muir
This paper estimates the costs of ‘de-risking’ scenarios between China and OECD members at the aggregate and sectoral levels. Aggregate large-scale de-risking – reshoring by increasing reliance on domestic production and friend-shoring by reducing imports from specific foreign countries – is quantified with the IMF’s GIMF model, suggesting significant permanent effects on the global economy. Returning integration to 2000 levels translates into long-term global GDP losses of 4.5 percent under reshoring and as much as 1.8 percent under friend-shoring. Friend-shoring does not necessarily deliver a boon to third countries as trade diversion benefits might be largely offset by contractions in China and OECD members. Sectoral de-risking, where all trade between rivals is eliminated in specific products, is quantified through empirical estimation of the scope for quality downgrading. The results demonstrate the potential for significant losses in input quality should there be an escalation in export bans. Losses are asymmetric against China in the specific case of semiconductors but can be significant for both sides in other sectors—including in critical areas such as environmental goods.
Keywords:
De-risking; fragmentation; reshoring; friend-shoring; export bans; quality downgrading.; GIMF model; quality downgrading; trade diversion benefit; OECD member; OECD economy; Global value chains; Exports; Imports; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy
Reda Cherif
and
Fuad Hasanov
Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged competition, economies of scale, innovation, and local integration and provided market signals to policymakers. Even in a large market such as India, import substitution policies in the automotive industry failed because of micromanagement and misaligned incentives. We also analyze the risk tradeoffs involved in various industrial policy strategies and their implications on the 21st century industrial policies. While state interventions may be needed to develop some new capabilities and industries, trade protectionism is neither a necessary nor a sufficient tool and will most likely be counterproductive.
Keywords:
Industrial policy; export orientation; import substitution; growth; diversification; innovation; technology; import substitution policy; D. export orientation; risk tradeoff; policies in India; Policy strategy; Exports; Manufacturing; Imports; Tariffs; Competition; Global; Caribbean; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Selected Issues paper discusses United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) focus on reforms for productive and greener growth. This paper aims to quantify the potential long-term growth and productivity gains from ongoing structural reform efforts. Facilitating green and sustainable private finance would reduce the direct fiscal burdens of investment needs and help promote a smooth transition to a lower carbon future. The UAE has recently signed or started negotiations for Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with eleven countries. Depending on the UAE’s ability to further attract foreign direct investment, the reduction of tariffs, especially on intermediate inputs, can significantly lift long-term growth through stronger competition, access to a higher number of varieties and quality of inputs, and transfer of technology. Developing and scaling up private green and sustainable finance, as well as creating an enabling environment for smooth energy transition, would reduce direct fiscal costs, increase efficiency of green investments, and preserve public financial wealth while delivering on growth and Net Zero ambitions.
Keywords:
UAE government; ICT investment outcome; FDI restrictiveness index; quantifying gains from trade liberalization; productivity gain; Climate finance; Digital economy; Foreign direct investment; Sustainable growth; Global
Cover South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth
South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth

Abstract

South Asia’s Path to Resilient Growth highlights the remarkable development progress in South Asia and how the region can advance in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steps include a renewed push toward greater trade and financial openness, while responding proactively to the distributional impact and dislocation associated with this structural transformation. Promoting a green and digital recovery remains important. The book explores ways to accelerate the income convergence process in the region, leveraging on the still-large potential demographic dividend in most of the countries. These include greater economic diversification and export sophistication, trade and foreign direct investment liberalization and participation in global value chains amid shifting regional and global conditions, financial development, and investment in human capital.

Keywords:
South Asia; sustainable growth; structural reforms; macro-financial management; IMF staff calculation; poverty head count ratio; health outcome; government of India; infrastructure investment; technical efficiency; value chain; teachers' wage; Exports; Climate change; Employment; Inflation targeting; East Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia
Cover Analytical Notes
Subsidies, Trade, and International Cooperation
International Monetary Fund
,
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
, and
World Bank
The international organizations (IOs) authoring this report can strengthen their individual and joint work to support governments in this endeavor. While the brunt of this work lies with finance ministries, trade ministries, and sectoral and specialized agencies of national governments, international organizations have key roles to play. The four authoring institutions are examining ways to help, individually and jointly, such as by collecting, organizing, and sharing data, coordinating analytical work agendas to develop methodologies to assess the cross-border effects of different forms of subsidies, and supporting inter-governmental dialogues. This will involve reaching out to and working with other international institutions as well.
Keywords:
OECD matrix; D. OECD export credit provision; WTO secretariat; data IMF Library; B. support measure; publication order; WTO member; Secretary-General of the OECD; Export credits; Government subsidies; Competition; Agricultural sector; Trade systems; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
trade diversification; B. trade composition; trade logistics; fuel subsidy; conversion plan; exchange rate shock; Energy subsidies; Inflation; Labor force; Exports; Fuel prices; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Asia and Pacific
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

Keywords:
vaccine rollout; GVC trade; vaccine deployment; pandemic cycle; trade openness; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Trade barriers; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Border Carbon Adjustments: Rationale, Design and Impact
Mr. Michael Keen
,
Ian W.H. Parry
, and
Mr. James Roaf
This paper assesses the rationale, design, and impacts of border carbon adjustments (BCAs). Large disparities in carbon pricing between countries raise concerns about competitiveness and emissions leakage. BCAs are potentially the most effective domestic instrument for addressing these challenges—but design details are critical. For example, limiting coverage of the BCA to energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries facilitates administration, and initially benchmarking BCAs on domestic emissions intensities would ease the transition for trading partners with emission-intensive production. It is also important to consider how to apply BCAs across countries with different approaches to emissions mitigation. BCAs alone do not solve the free-rider problem in carbon pricing, but might be a step to an effective international carbon price floor.
Keywords:
border carbon adjustment; climate mitigation; carbon pricing; competitiveness; emissions leakage; allowance allocation; design issues; World Trade Organization rules.; emissions mitigation; design detail; impacts of border carbon adjustments; EITE industry; Greenhouse gas emissions; Tariffs; Competition; Export subsidies; Global
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Carbon Pricing: What Role for Border Carbon Adjustments?
Ian W.H. Parry
,
Mr. Peter Dohlman
,
Mr. Cory Hillier
,
Mr. Martin D Kaufman
,
Florian Misch
,
Mr. James Roaf
,
Mr. Christophe J Waerzeggers
, and
Miss Kyung Kwak
This Climate Note discusses the rationale, design, and impacts of border carbon adjustments (BCAs), charges on embodied carbon in imports potentially matched by rebates for embodied carbon in exports. Large disparities in carbon pricing between countries is raising concerns about competitiveness and emissions leakage, and BCAs are a potentially effective instrument for addressing such concerns. Design details are critical, however. For example, limiting coverage of the BCA to energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries facilitates administration, and initially benchmarking BCAs on domestic emissions intensities would help ease the transition for emissions-intensive trading partners. It is also important to consider how to apply BCAs across countries with different approaches to emissions mitigation. BCAs are challenging because they pose legal risks and may be at odds with the differentiated responsibilities of developing countries. Furthermore, BCAs provide only modest incentives for other large emitting countries to scale carbon pricing—an international carbon price floor would be far more effective in this regard.
Keywords:
Border carbon adjustment, climate mitigation, carbon pricing, competitiveness, emissions leakage, allowance allocation, design issues, World Trade Organization rules; IMF staff climate note; border carbon adjustments; climate mitigation; emissions leakage; BCA to energy-intensive; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Imports; Export subsidies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade and Inclusive Growth
Ms. Valerie Cerra
This paper surveys the literature on the relationship between international trade and inclusive growth. It examines claims that the rise in inequality in many countries can be attributed to the concurrent rise in trade competition, especially from EMEs like China, spurring trade tensions and protectionist measures. The paper investigates the conflicting literature showing the aggregate benefits of trade versus the adverse and persistent impact of trade, especially import competition, on specific industries and local communities. The paper then reviews the evidence for using trade policies and other complementary policies for adjustment and compensation to those groups adversely affected by trade.
Keywords:
trade; inclusive growth; inequality; globalization; growth; poverty; gender; labor; productivity difference; export-led growth; wage inequality; trade facilitation; trade cost; firm productivity difference; liberalization episode; superstar firm; adjustment policy; trade theory; size firm; trade openness; Exports; Imports; Wages; Tariffs; Trade policy; Global