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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Business Fluctuations; Cycles x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Sector and Economic Growth in India
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
and
Ms. TengTeng Xu
India’s financial sector has faced many challenges in recent decades, with a large, negative, and persistent credit to GDP gap since 2012. We examine how cyclical financial conditions affect GDP growth using a growth-at-risk (GaR) approach and analyze the link between bank balance sheets, credit growth, and long-term growth using bank-level panel regressions for both public and private banks. We find that on a cyclical basis, a negative shock to credit or a rise in macro vulnerability all shift the distribution of growth to the left, with lower expected growth and higher negative tail risks; over the long term, the results indicate that higher credit growth, arising from better capitalized banks with lower NPLs, is associated with higher GDP growth.
Keywords:
India; Credit and Leverage; Macro-financial Linkages; Growth-at-Risk; Panel Regressions.; credit growth; cyclical financial conditions; economic growth in India; GDP gap; bank capitalization; Credit; Bank credit; State-owned banks; Debt financing; Financial statements; Global; NPL ratio; bank equity; bank assets; growth from bank
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies
Davide Furceri
,
Jun Ge
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
, and
Mr. Giovanni Melina
We construct unanticipated government spending shocks for 103 developing countries from 1990 to 2015 and study their effects on income distribution. We find that unanticipated fiscal consolidations lead to a long-lasting increase in income inequality, while fiscal expansions lower inequality. The results are robust to several measures of income distribution and size of the fiscal shocks, to an alternative identification strategy, across expansions and recessions and across country groups (low-income countries versus emerging markets). An additional contribution of the paper is the computation of the medium-term inequality multiplier. This is on average about 1 in our sample, meaning that a cumulative decrease in government spending of 1 percent of GDP over 5 years is associated with a cumulative increase in the Gini coefficient over the same period of about 1 percentage point. The multiplier is larger for total government expenditure than for public investment and consumption (with the former having larger effect), likely due to the redistributive role of transfers. Finally, we find that (unanticipated) fiscal consolidations lead to an increase in poverty.
Keywords:
WP; government spending shock; Fiscal policy; Fiscal shocks; Inequality; Income distribution; inequality multiplier; net income inequality; government spending response; government-spending ratio; growth shock; government spending contraction; government expenditure forecast; Income inequality; Total expenditures; Public investment spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Lending Standards and Output Growth
Mr. Divya Kirti
While some credit booms are followed by economic underperformance, many are not. Can lending standards help separate good credit booms from bad credit booms contemporaneously? To observe lending standards internationally, I use information from primary debt capital markets. I construct the high-yield (HY) share of bond issuance for a panel of 38 countries. The HY share is procyclical, suggesting that lending standards in bond markets are extrapolative. Credit booms with deteriorating lending standards (rising HY share) are followed by lower GDP growth in the subsequent three to four years. Such booms deserve attention from policy makers.
Keywords:
WP; HY share; lending standard; credit boom; Lending standards; credit cycles; risky debt share; behavioral finance; share help; share of bond issuance; GDP gap; share of issuance; Credit booms; Credit; Consumer credit; Bank credit; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Frictions, Underinvestment, and Investment Composition: Evidence from Indian Corporates
Miss Sonali Das
and
Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
This paper studies private investment in India against the backdrop of a significant investment decline over the past decade. We analyze the potential causes of weaker investment at the firm level, using both firm-level financial statements and a novel dataset on firms’ investment project decisions, and find that financial frictions have played a role in the slowdown. Firms with higher financial leverage invest less, as do firms with lower earnings relative to their interest expenses. Consistent with the notion of credit constraints leading to pro-cyclical investment, we also find that firms with higher leverage are (i) less likely to undertake new investment projects, (ii) less likely to complete investment projects once begun, and (iii) undertake shorter-term investment projects.
Keywords:
WP; firm; investment; investment rate; financial leverage; Corporate Leverage; India; investment project; Project length; firm investment; investment expenditure; investment decision; investment slowdown; Stocks; Exports; Capital adequacy requirements; Financial frictions; Private investment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?
Mr. Paul Cashin
,
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
, and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.
Keywords:
WP; China’s slowdown; global financial market volatility; international business cycle; Global VAR; financial market volatility; world commodity market; GVAR model; slowdown pose; volatility shock; trade weight; growth spillover; commodity price linkage; China slowdown; Vector autoregression; Oil prices; Financial soundness indicators; Long term interest rates; Plurilateral trade; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Emerging Market Heterogeneity: Insights from Cluster and Taxonomy Analysis
Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
and
Miss Yuan Gao
This paper studies growth patterns in Emerging Market Economies (EMs) from the perspective on clusters and taxonomies. First, it documents developments over the past five decades in EMs and uses a cluster analysis to better understand convergence and the investment-growth nexus. Second, it looks at the performance of EMs since 2000 and develops a taxonomy to classify countries according to their factor endowments as well as their real and financial external linkages. The taxonomy offers insights on growth dynamics pre and post the global financial crisis. Results highlight the high degree of heterogeneity in EMs and the need for more granular and targeted near and long-term policy advice.
Keywords:
WP; cluster; growth rate; EMs; growth cluster; emerging markets; growth; heterogeneity; cluster analysis; taxonomy; net commodity export deficit; groups EMs; unemployment rate; commodity price booms; investment-growth-unemployment nexus; terms of trade shock; investment share; commodity-exporting EMs; EMs group; Total factor productivity; Consumption; Terms of trade; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications
Mr. Ron Alquist
and
Mr. Olivier Coibion
We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
Keywords:
WP; commodity price; palm oil; Commodity prices; comovement; factor models; commodity shock; commodity-price movement; productivity shock; factor loading; forecast evaluation period; Agricultural commodities; Commodity price fluctuations; Oil; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Emerging Economy Business Cycles: Financial Integration and Terms of Trade Shocks
Rudrani Bhattacharya
,
Ila Patnaik
, and
Madhavi Pundit
This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle.
Keywords:
WP; Macroeconomics; real business cycles; emerging market DSGE models; volatility; terms of trade; terms of trade shock; business cycle volatility; terms of trade fluctuation; terms of trade volatility; net barter terms of trade; volatility decrease; tot shock; current account volatility; a number of emerging economies; Financial integration; Trade balance; Business cycles; Current account; Africa; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies
Rudrani Bhattacharya
and
Ila Patnaik
How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. We address this puzzle in the framework of an emerging economy model in which households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction of them are credit constrained. Unconstrained households can respond to shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more than rise in current income. Financial reform increases the share of such households, leading to greater relative consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre and post financial reform in India provides support for the model's key predictions.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; closed economy; Macroeconomics; real business cycles; emerging market business cycle stylized facts; financial development; consumption volatility; labour productivity; aggregate consumption; consumption cycle; volatility rise; volatility of consumption; Consumption; Financial sector development; Income; Income shocks; Africa; Eastern Europe; East Asia; South Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India
Muneesh Kapur
and
Michael Debabrata Patra
This paper empirically evaluates the operational performance of the McCallum rule, the Taylor rule and hybrid rules in India over the period 1996-2011 using quarterly data, with a view to analytically informing the conduct of monetary policy. The results show that forward-looking formulations of both rules and their hybrid version - setting a nominal output growth objective for monetary policy with an interest rate instrument - outperform contemporaneous and backward-looking specifications, especially when targeting core components of GDP and inflation, and combine the best parts of efficiency and discretion.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; policy instrument; reverse repo; India; McCallum Rule; Monetary Policy; Monetary Policy Reaction Function; Neutral Interest Rate; Taylor Rule; policy rule; reaction function; principle result; real rate of interest; WPI inflation; rate of growth; inflation gap; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Monetary base; Output gap; Personal income; Global