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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Working Papers
A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis
Allan Dizioli
,
Daniel Rivera Greenwood
, and
Aneta Radzikowski
This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.
Keywords:
COVID-19; epidemiology modelling; vaccines impact; virus variants and testing; vaccine hesitancy; vaccination data; Google mobility; virus variant; vaccination assumption; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Aging; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review — Overview Paper
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Fund surveillance needs to evolve to face the economic and financial challenges that will shape the global landscape for years to come. This paper first takes stock of the current economic and financial landscape. To better serve the membership in this context, Fund surveillance should be prioritized around four key priorities: (i) confronting risks and uncertainties: policymakers will need to actively manage the risks of a highly uncertain outlook; (ii) preempting and mitigating adverse spillovers: shifting patterns of global economic integration will bring about new channels for contagion and policy spillovers; (iii) fostering economic sustainability: a broader understanding of sustainability to better account for the impact of economic and non-economic developments on stability; and (iv) unified policy advice: better accounting for the trade-offs and synergies among different policy combinations in the face of limited policy space and overlapping priorities, tailored to country-specific circumstances. These priorities should further enhance the traction of Fund surveillance.
Keywords:
Fund surveillance; policy advice; IMF surveillance; Policy reaction; surveillance activity; Spillovers; Climate change; COVID-19; Income inequality; Financial sector risk; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Offshore Currency Markets: Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) in Asia
Jochen M. Schmittmann
Non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets in many Asian emerging market currencies are large, rapidly growing, and often exceed onshore markets in transaction volume. NDFs tend to price significant depreciation during market stress episodes including COVID-19. Spillovers from NDFs to onshore markets are a policymaker concern. Our analysis shows that influences tend to run both ways after controlling for differences in timezones between markets. For the COVID-19 pandemic there is some evidence of NDFs leading onshore markets for a few currencies. Policy approaches to NDFs vary widely across Asia from close integration with onshore markets to severe restrictions on NDF trading.
Keywords:
WP; NDF market; onshore market; NDF pricing; NDF trading; NDF volume; Philippine peso; Currency Markets; Offshore Markets; Non-Deliverable Forwards; NDF; DNDF; Indian rupee; transaction volume; trading hub; MYR NDF trading; NDF data; emerging market; DNDF position; Currencies; Depreciation; Spillovers; Global; East Asia; South Asia; DNDF liquidity; COVID-19; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Risks and Collective Action Failures: What Can the International Community Do?
Ms. Inci Ötker
Abstract What do climate change, global financial crises, pandemics, and fragility and conflict have in common? They are all examples of global risks that can cross geographical and generational boundaries and whose mismanagement can reverse gains in development and jeopardize the well-being of generations. Managing risks such as these becomes a global public good, whose benefits also cross boundaries, providing a rationale for collective action facilitated by the international community. Yet, as many public goods, provision of global public goods suffer from collective action failures that undermine international coordination. This paper discusses the obstacles to addresing these global risks effectively, highlighting their implications for the current juncture. It claims that remaining gaps in information, resources, and capacity hamper accumulation and use of knowledge to triger appropriate action, but diverging national interests remain the key impediment to cooperation and effectiveness of global efforts, even when knowledge on the risks and their consequences are well understood. The paper argues that managing global risks requires a cohesive international community that enables its stakeholders to work collectively around common goals by facilitating sharing of knowledge, devoting resources to capacity building, and protecting the vulnerable. When some countries fail to cooperate, the international community can still forge cooperation, including by realigning incentives and demonstrating benefit from incremental steps toward full cooperation.
Keywords:
WP; country; risk; international community; authority; financial crisis; Global risks; Collective action; Climate change; Crises; Pandemics; Globalization; assists country; climate change risk; risk-management capacity; risk awareness; contagion risk; mismanaged risk; public goods; pool resource; low income; health risk; poverty risk; International cooperation; Communicable diseases; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks
Rakesh Mohan
and
Muneesh Kapur
The unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) pursued by the advanced economies (AEs) have posed macroeconomic challenges for the emerging market economies (EMEs) through volatile capital flows and exchange rates. AE central banks need to acknowledge and appreciate the spillovers resulting from such UMPs. Central banks of the AEs, who have set up standing mutual swap facilities, should explore similar arrangements with other significant EMEs with appropriate risk mitigation measures. These initiatives could do much to actually curb volatility in global financial markets and hence in capital flows to EMEs, thus obviating the need for defensive policy actions on the part of EMEs.
Keywords:
WP; emerging market; central bank; monetary policy; economy; interest rate; Capital flows; central banks; coordination; emerging markets; unconventional monetary policy; spillovers; capital account; EME authority; EME authorities; fast-growing emerging market economies; monetary policy coordination; Fed's monetary policy; deficit EMEs; support emerging market economies; Fed chairman Bernanke; EME need; Unconventional monetary policies; Financial sector stability; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2012
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; IMF fellowship program; JCR impact factor; policy; IMF fellow; work of the IMF; journal impact factor; IMF research; Capital flows; Bank credit; Spillovers; Zero lower bound; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
, and
Mrs. Sarwat Jahan
This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyze the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners' growth is high for LICs in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the emerging market leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks.
Keywords:
WP; EM leader; LIC growth prospect; LICS in SSA; MNA region; LICS in Asia; Growth Spillovers; Low-Income Countries; Economic Integration; Decoupling; Vector Autoregression; Panel Estimate; commodity exporter; Spillovers; Exports; Foreign direct investment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Convergence and Spillovers among Indian States: What Matters? What Does Not?
Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon
and
Sanjay Kalra
Convergence and spillovers across countries and within countries are old, but recurrent policy concerns, and India is no exception to this rule. This paper examines convergence and spillovers across Indian states using non-stationary panel data techniques. Results on convergence among Indian states are generally found to be similar, but more nuanced, than previous studies. Generally speaking, there is evidence of divergence over the entire sample period, convergence during sub-periods corresponding to structural breaks, and club convergence. There is strong evidence of club convergence among the high- and low-income states; the evidence for middle-income states is mixed. Dynamic spillover effects among states are small.
Keywords:
WP; low income; growth rate
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2008, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2008, Asia and Pacific
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

2008 is shaping up as a challenging year for Asia. Activity in most economies remains fairly buoyant, but growth in the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe is slowing sharply. Given its extensive trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world, Asia is unlikely to delink. At the same time, inflation pressures are picking up across much of the region. Moreover, the still-unfolding global financial crisis adds a dimension of uncertainty to the picture, and the balance of risks remains on the downside. However, most countries in the region are well-placed to undertake counter-cyclical policies should these prove necessary.

Keywords:
REO; Asia; trade exposure; recession; price; exposure to the United States; recession-event study; U.S. dollar; recession in the United States; spillovers from the United States; Inflation; Exports; Oil prices; Export performance; Credit; Asia and Pacific; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Middle East; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations
Miss Cigdem Akin
and
Mr. Ayhan Kose
This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization?the phenomenon of rising international trade and financial flows. We use a comprehensive database of macroeconomic and sectoral variables for 106 countries over the period 1960- 2005. We consider the South to be composed of two groups of countries, the Emerging South and the Developing South, based on the extent of their integration into the global economy. Using a panel regression framework, we find that the impact of the Northern economic activity on the Emerging South has declined during the globalization period (1986-2005). In contrast, the growth linkages between the North and Developing South have been rather stable over time. Our findings also suggest that the Northern and Emerging Southern economies have started to exhibit more intensive intra-group growth spillovers.
Keywords:
WP; globalization period; Emerging South group; Emerging South economy; growth spillover