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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Bayesian Analysis: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Mr. Damien Puy
,
Mr. Yiqun Wu
, and
Ms. Longmei Zhang
The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.
Keywords:
WP; economic growth; per capita income; simple average; growth; slowdown; middle income trap; Bayesian Model Averaging; rate of growth; physical capital; time series; relative frequency; middle-income economy; fertility rate; Income; Capital inflows; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Infrastructure; Regional integration; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Future of Oil: Geology Versus Technology
Ms. Marcelle Chauvet
,
Mr. Jack G. Selody
,
Mr. Douglas Laxton
,
Mr. Michael Kumhof
,
Mr. Jaromir Benes
,
Mr. Ondrej Kamenik
, and
Susanna Mursula
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; supply shock; Oil prices; exhaustible resources; fossil fuels; oil depletion; Hubbert’s Peak; Bayesian econometrics; price elasticity; price mechanism; elasticities of demand and supply; cost share; price effect; price channel; long-run price elasticities of oil demand and supply; adjustment cost; share of energy; oil price growth rate; price elasticities of oil demand and supply; price elasticities of demand and supply; Oil; Oil production; Output gap; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?
Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides
This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Averaging to explicitly account for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that: (i) in addition to initial conditions, various economic factors such as higher investment, lower inflation, lower government consumption, better fiscal stance, improved political environment, exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and fixed geographical factors are robustly correlated with growth; (ii) what is good for growth around the world is, in principle, also good for growth in Africa; and (iii) political and institutional variables are particularly important in explaining African growth.
Keywords:
WP; Economic growth; growth regressions; Bayesian model averaging; dynamic panel estimation; physical capital; Africa sample; repayment ability; growth determinant; land market; panel data systems GMM estimator; civil war; country's authorities; Income; Government consumption; Debt service; Population growth; Africa