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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 20 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Price of De-Risking Reshoring, Friend-Shoring, and Quality Downgrading
Diego A. Cerdeiro
,
Parisa Kamali
,
Siddharth Kothari
, and
Dirk V Muir
This paper estimates the costs of ‘de-risking’ scenarios between China and OECD members at the aggregate and sectoral levels. Aggregate large-scale de-risking – reshoring by increasing reliance on domestic production and friend-shoring by reducing imports from specific foreign countries – is quantified with the IMF’s GIMF model, suggesting significant permanent effects on the global economy. Returning integration to 2000 levels translates into long-term global GDP losses of 4.5 percent under reshoring and as much as 1.8 percent under friend-shoring. Friend-shoring does not necessarily deliver a boon to third countries as trade diversion benefits might be largely offset by contractions in China and OECD members. Sectoral de-risking, where all trade between rivals is eliminated in specific products, is quantified through empirical estimation of the scope for quality downgrading. The results demonstrate the potential for significant losses in input quality should there be an escalation in export bans. Losses are asymmetric against China in the specific case of semiconductors but can be significant for both sides in other sectors—including in critical areas such as environmental goods.
Keywords:
De-risking; fragmentation; reshoring; friend-shoring; export bans; quality downgrading.; GIMF model; quality downgrading; trade diversion benefit; OECD member; OECD economy; Global value chains; Exports; Imports; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics
Vu Chau
,
Marina Conesa Martinez
,
Taehoon Kim
, and
John A Spray
We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.
Keywords:
Inflation; global value chains; network; pandemic; spillovers; inflation dynamics; lockdown shock; producer price inflation; reopening policy; PPI inflation; Supply shocks; Fiscal stimulus; COVID-19; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America; Northern Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, June 2019: The IMF at 75
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development presents success and works of IMF in the past 75 years since its formation. The IMF’s financial firepower must be increased substantially, particularly in a world of relatively free capital flows. If the world of cooperative globalization is to survive and the IMF is to maintain its role within it, a great deal must change. Some of these changes are within the IMF’s control. The most important challenges for the IMF of tomorrow are, however, those created by the changing world. Global cooperation is needed to reap the benefits and avoid the pitfalls of cross-border capital flows. Cross-border capital flows are neither an unmitigated blessing nor an undoubted curse. Used judiciously, they can be beneficial to recipient countries, making up deficiencies in the availability of long-term risk capital and reducing gaps in local corporate governance. Many emerging market economies have understood that they should build foreign exchange reserves. The IMF model suggests that fluctuations in the exchange rate are the main reason for fluctuations in corporate liquidity in receiving countries.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; China; country; economy; swap line; IMF of today; central bank swap lines; Bretton Woods conference; IMF quota; IMF Headquarters; Carbon tax; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global value chains; Currencies; International monetary system; Global; Africa; Central Asia; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Newly Industrialized Economies in Global Value Chains
Dominik Boddin
In light of increased vertical specialization and the dominance of trade in intermediates rather than final goods, this paper seeks to raise awareness of the limitations of traditional trade measures on a gross output basis. To do so, this paper uses the WIOD, a world input output table, as an alternative trade measure to analyze the role of six newly industrialized economies in global value chains. The differences between measures on a gross output basis and value added basis are striking. Export shares measured by both methods differed by more than 20 percent for some industries. These findings highlight the need for more sophisticated world input output data to form a better understanding of global trade dynamics and country interdependencies.
Keywords:
WP; value added; Global Value Chains; Vertical Specialization; Newly Industrialized Economies; export industry structure; export share; export vector; trade connection; export value; consumption share; Exports; Consumption; Imports; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015
Stabilizing and Outperforming Other Regions
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Asia and the Pacific remains the global growth leader, albeit with a moderated pace of expansion since the global financial crisis. There is considerable diversity across the region: growth in China is slowing to a more sustainable pace, while in Japan a pickup in growth is expected. Non-oil commodity exporters have experienced sharply falling prices, while net importers have benefited from large changes in terms of trade. The April 2015 Regional Economic Outlook examines the volatility risks from this regional diversity, as well as Asia and Pacific’s role in global value chains and the factors affecting financial integration in Asia.

Keywords:
REO; economy; Asia; U.S. dollar; GVC participation; lower world oil price; inflation condition; portfolio investment; GVC pie; Financial integration; Inflation; Global value chains; Oil prices; Real effective exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand; Southeast Asia; participation index subcategory; IMF staff calculation; source country's portfolio asset holding; bank claim; electronics gvcs; Caribbean
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2009
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about policy options for emerging market countries (by Marcos Chamon, Chris Crowe, and Jun Il Kim); research summaries on “Does Trade and Financial Globalization Cause Income Inequality?” (by Chris Papageorgiou) and “The Current Account of Oil-Exporting Countries (by Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho); an article on the launch of the IMF’s new research journal, IMF Economic Review, and the contents of the upcoming IMF Staff Papers, which the new the new journal will succeed in 2010; an article on the upcoming Tenth Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference; a listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during July–September 2009; and listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.
Keywords:
IRB; UCLA Anderson School of Management; conference program; staff position note; current account Sustainability; Policy consideration; kajal Lahiri; research Journal; current account fluctuation; policy option; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Income inequality; Current account balance; Oil; Current account; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This special issue brings together world-renowned experts to provide a systematic and critical analysis of the costs and benefits of financial globalization. Contributors include Kenneth Rogoff, Maurice Obstfeld, Dani Rodrik, and Frederic S. Mishkin.
Keywords:
SP; financial globalization; country; emerging market country; globalization pose; banking globalization; banking sector globalization; Financial integration; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial sector development; Foreign banks; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; North Africa; Central Asia; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations
Miss Cigdem Akin
and
Mr. Ayhan Kose
This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization?the phenomenon of rising international trade and financial flows. We use a comprehensive database of macroeconomic and sectoral variables for 106 countries over the period 1960- 2005. We consider the South to be composed of two groups of countries, the Emerging South and the Developing South, based on the extent of their integration into the global economy. Using a panel regression framework, we find that the impact of the Northern economic activity on the Emerging South has declined during the globalization period (1986-2005). In contrast, the growth linkages between the North and Developing South have been rather stable over time. Our findings also suggest that the Northern and Emerging Southern economies have started to exhibit more intensive intra-group growth spillovers.
Keywords:
WP; globalization period; Emerging South group; Emerging South economy; growth spillover
Cover IMF Survey
Boletin del FMI Vol.36, No.13 noviembre 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Solicitud de fortalecimiento del FMI, Perspectivas de crecimiento mundial, Strauss-Kahn asume como nuevo Director Gerente del FMI, Comunicado del CMFI, Globalización, Ciclo económico mundial, flujos de capital, Seminarios durante las Reuniones Anuales, Perspectivas de la economía asiática, Perspectivas de economía africana, Notas breves.
Keywords:
SV; IMF publication service; economy; market; IMF study
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 36 Issue 13
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Calls for stronger IMF, World Growth Outlook, Strauss-Kahn Takes Over as New IMF Head, IMFC Communique, Globalization, Global Business Cycle, Capital Flows, Annual Meetings Seminars, Asian Economic Outlook, African Economic Outlook, News Briefs.
Keywords:
SV; IMF publication service; economy; market; IMF study; IMF survey; trade globalization; FDI inflow; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Capital inflows; Climate change; Income inequality; Personal income; Global; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa