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Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Ke Wang
Using a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014, this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an increasingly important component of global production. A detailed analysis of patterns and stylized facts reveals that exports of services are not only gaining strong momentum and catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could also trigger a new wave of trade globalization. Research applications of the trade in service dataset on structural transformation, resilience, labor reallocation, and income distribution are outlined.
Mr. Malhar S Nabar
and
Mr. Murtaza H Syed
Ensuring stable growth in the postcrisis world economy will require a rebalancing of economic activity in several countries. In Asia’s export-dependent economies, this entails relying more on private domestic demand as a driver of growth. While some countries need to raise consumption, several need to raise investment or reorient it from tradable to nontradable sectors. These changes in investment could be facilitated by financial reforms that enhance domestically oriented firms’ access to credit, stronger incentives for corporate restructuring, policies to bolster the business climate and reduce uncertainty, and by improvements in infrastructure that raise the returns to private investment.
Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon
and
Sanjay Kalra
Convergence and spillovers across countries and within countries are old, but recurrent policy concerns, and India is no exception to this rule. This paper examines convergence and spillovers across Indian states using non-stationary panel data techniques. Results on convergence among Indian states are generally found to be similar, but more nuanced, than previous studies. Generally speaking, there is evidence of divergence over the entire sample period, convergence during sub-periods corresponding to structural breaks, and club convergence. There is strong evidence of club convergence among the high- and low-income states; the evidence for middle-income states is mixed. Dynamic spillover effects among states are small.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper highlights the Philippine growth performance led by the services sector. Average GDP growth is higher in the post-Asian crisis period in the Philippines, while the majority of the Philippines’s regional peers have experienced substantially lower growth in the post-Asian crisis period compared with the pre-crisis period. Trade and transport, storage, and communications services have been growth drivers while private and financial services have started to add new momentum. Various transfer programs are identified that would be much better targeted than across-the-board energy tax cuts.
Mary Amiti
and
Shang-Jin Wei
The recent media and political attention on service outsourcing from developed to developing countries gives the impression that outsourcing is exploding. As a result, workers in industrial countries are anxious about job losses. This paper aims to establish what are the hypes and what are the facts. The results show that although service outsourcing has been steadily increasing it is still very low, and that in the United States and many other industrial countries "insourcing" is greater than outsourcing. Using the United Kingdom as a case study, we find that job growth at a sectoral level is not negatively related to service outsourcing.
Mrs. Poonam Gupta
and
Mr. James P. F. Gordon
This paper analyzes the factors behind the recent growth of India's services sector. The high growth of services output in the 1990s was mostly due to the rapid expansion of communication, banking, business services (including the IT sector) and community services. While factors such as a high income elasticity of demand for services, increasing input usage of services by other sectors, and rising exports, were important in boosting services growth in the 1990s, supply side factors including reforms and technological advances also played significant roles. Going forward, the growth potential of Indian services exports is well known, but the paper also finds considerable scope for growth in the Indian service economy provided that deregulation continues. In addition, the paper shows that employment growth in the Indian services sector has been quite modest, thus underscoring the need for industry and agriculture to also grow rapidly.
International Monetary Fund
A summary of India’s dissemination practices relative to the special data dissemination standard (SDDS) is provided. This report is based on the information provided by Indian authorities and data users prior to and during a staff mission from May 13–30, 2002, as well as publicly available information. The assessment of India’s data dissemination practices against the SDDS is also provided. A summary assessment of the quality of the principal macroeconomic datasets is also discussed. Finally, the report sets out recommendations to achieve further improvements in India’s statistics.