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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
India’s financial system has withstood the pandemic well and has become more resilient since the 2017 FSAP. Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)—especially nonbank financial companies (NBFCs) providing credit with wholesale financing—and market financing have grown, making the financial system more diverse and interconnected. The role of the state has diminished, yet it remains significant, including in using the financial system to pursue social and public finance goals.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In August 2024, at the request of the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA), the IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) conducted a Technical Assistance (TA) mission in Thimphu. The mission aimed to assist the RMA in establishing an interest rate corridor (IRC) and operationalizing related instruments, liquidity forecasting, and collateral frameworks. The mission identified that the RMA lacks necessary monetary policy instruments to effectively address changing systemic liquidity conditions and financial stability challenges. It emphasized the need to move away from reliance on administrative controls, as the absence of appropriate price incentives reinforces the preference for foreign exchange among Bhutanese residents, increasing pressures on the peg. To tackle these issues, the mission proposed a phased approach to introduce the IRC. Initially, relevant external and internal documents should be finalized, followed by mock operations. The first phase involves introducing a one-week main Open Market Operation (OMO), conducted weekly at the policy rate with full allotment. Automatic access to the IRC's standing facilities should be ensured. Later, fixed-quantity, variable-rate OMOs should be utilized, relying on liquidity forecasting to calibrate operations. Additionally, the mission recommended reinstating sweeping arrangements for government accounts and enhancing coordination with the Treasury to improve liquidity forecasting. These measures aim to strengthen the RMA's operational framework and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines monetary policy transmission via three lenses in Australia. The paper finds that while macroeconomic dynamics in Australia in the current tightening cycle have not differed significantly from historical experience and from experiences in other major AEs, the resilience of Australia’s economy in recent years is remarkable, as evidenced by persistently tight labor markets. Second, several features of the Australian housing market, most notably the high prevalence of variable rate mortgages, may strengthen monetary policy transmission to households relative to other AEs. Lastly, we find that firm investment in Australia’s nonextractive sector is strongly sensitive to monetary policy changes; the sensitivity is more pronounced for firms with less liquidity, higher leverage, and higher reliance on bank and short-term financing. We highlight how resilience in Australian corporate balance sheets in recent years may have helped soften monetary policy transmission to investment in the current cycle.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The paper briefs the Executive Board on the further considerations on CBDC. These cover the positioning of CBDC in the payments landscape, cyber resilience of the CBDC ecosystem, CBDC adoption, CBDC data use and privacy protection, implications for monetary policy operations, and cross-border payments with retail CBDC.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report summarizes the content and findings of a technical assistance (TA) mission that was reviewing and evaluating the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s stress test model suite. The RBI’s model suite was found to be strong and well developed in numerous respects. The most noteworthy recommendations pertain to credit risk, market risk, and macro-financial scenario design. A detailed list of recommendations spanning all areas was left with the RBI.
Manisha Patel
,
Safari Kasiyanto
, and
Andre Reslow
The IMF is frequently approached by central banks seeking guidance on the balance between central bank digital currency (CBDC), fast payment systems (FPS), and electronic money (e-money) solutions. Common questions arising include: Do central banks need a CBDC when already equipped with other well-established digital payments systems? For central banks with less-developed solutions: Should central banks establish one system over the other? This discussion is then compounded by the reality of constrained resources. This note focuses on the comparison of retail CBDC—that is, the presence of digital central bank money available to the general public—with FPS and e-money systems from a payments perspective, and how CBDC may support a jurisdiction’s vision on payments in the digital age. The note does not seek to advocate for CBDC over an FPS or e-money. The balance of arguments for any one system may change over time, and the choice may not be mutually exclusive in many jurisdictions. In the future, it is possible to envisage the coexistence of an FPS, e-money, and CBDC in many payment landscapes across the world. Through good design, all three systems could meet central bank objectives such as payments efficiency and supporting financial inclusion; some benefits are unique to CBDC, such as maintaining access to central bank money in an increasingly digitalized age. While central banks will make choices unique to their circumstances, it remains important for central banks to establish a strategy that allows them (at minimum) to monitor trends and core benefits of multiple solutions as developments occur, to allow them to plan, adapt, and drive developments in their payments landscape.
Tayo Tunyathon Koonprasert
,
Shiho Kanada
,
Natsuki Tsuda
, and
Edona Reshidi
Among the countries that have launched central bank digital currency (CBDC) or are conducting large-scale pilots, adoption remains slow and limited due to various challenges such as lack of public awareness and trust, preference for existing payment methods, and inadequate incentives for intermediaries. Central banks cannot take it for granted that CBDC, once launched, will be adopted and scaled up easily. Forming part of the CBDC Virtual Handbook, this paper aims to encourage policymakers to consider CBDC adoption early on, by arguing that successful CBDC adoption hinges not only on technical readiness and operational robustness, but also on strategic policy and design choices that target end-user and intermediary involvement from the outset. The paper introduces The REDI Framework which outlines various regulatory strategies, education/communication initiatives, design/deployment choices, and incentive mechanisms to prepare for CBDC adoption.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bhutan achieved significant improvements in social conditions during the last decade, raising living standards. Poverty and inequality have declined, while extreme poverty has been eliminated. Growth is projected to accelerate over the medium term as a large hydro-project is commissioned and capital spending is boosted with the support of external grants. Pull factors are expected to slow down emigration, thereby reducing pressures on the supply side. A gradual fiscal consolidation based on revenue mobilization and accompanied by some spending restraint is needed to increase fiscal space and to reduce reliance on external grants in the longer term. Structural policies should focus on fostering high-quality private sector jobs, as well as diversifying exports. There is scope to strengthen the Royal Monetary Authority’s governance framework, as well as to step up anti-money laundering/countering the financing of terrorism efforts. Improvements in data quality have been significant, but further actions are needed to address remaining weaknesses. These include a need for greater transparency on crypto assets operations.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Nepal’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Nepal has made good progress with implementation of the program, despite a challenging political environment. With growth below potential, executing the planned increase in capital spending, as envisaged in the FY24/25 budget, while maintaining fiscal discipline through domestic revenue mobilization and rationalization of current spending remains critical to boost growth and preserve medium-term fiscal sustainability. Monetary policy should maintain the current cautious, data-driven approach to preserving price and external stability. Avoiding further boom-bust credit cycles is critical to establish a more stable, pro-growth equilibrium. Continued progress on the structural front remains needed to foster investment and more inclusive growth. These include improving the business climate, building human capital, and continuing to improve social safety nets, in particular aiming for full execution of the child grant budget, followed by an expansion of the program to all districts in Nepal.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Union of Comoros’ Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. Performance under Comoros’s economic reform program continues to be broadly satisfactory, and the authorities remain committed to the economic policies and reforms underpinning the ECF-supported program. Reforms are beginning to bear fruit, with visible signs of macroeconomic stabilization. However, Comoros continues to face the challenges of a small, fragile island state which requires steadfast program implementation and continued support from international partners. Monetary policy has contained inflation and ensured sufficient external buffers for Comoros and the stability of the peg. Continued efforts to stabilize the financial sector, including through the restructuring of the state-owned postal bank, addressing credit quality in the banking system, and strengthening banking supervision and resolution capacities are welcome. Support from international partners continues to be important for addressing the country’s large development needs and climate-related risks.