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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 43 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Informal Economy: An Augmented Factor Model Approach
Jiaxiong Yao
This paper develops a new approach to estimating the degree of informality in an economy. It combines direct yet infrequent measures of the informal economy in micro data with an augmented factor model that links macro indicators of the informal economy to its causes. We show that the prevailing model used in the literature, the multiple indicators multiple causes model, is a special case of the augmented factor model and depicts an incomplete picture of the informal economy. Using the augmented factor model approach, we show that the dynamics of the informal economy is shaped by the strength of overall economic activity as well as the interplay between the formal and informal economies. Contrary to previous work that typically finds declining informality for most countries, we find that the degree of informality has increased for low-income countries for the past two decades.
Keywords:
Informality; augmented factor model; MIMIC model; survey data; indicators of the informal economy; WBES data; D. adding nighttime; nighttime Light; component analysis; Informal economy; Factor models; Monetary base; Electricity; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Framework for Climate Change Mitigation in India
Jean Chateau
,
Geetika Dang
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
John A Spray
, and
Sneha D Thube
Climate change poses challenging policy tradeoffs for India. The country faces the challenge of raising living standards for a population of 1.4 billion while at the same time needing to be a critical contributor to reducing global GHG emissions. The government has implemented numerous policies to promote the manufacturing and use of renewable energy and shift away from coal, but much still needs to be done to reach India’s 2070 net zero goal. Reducing GHG emissions will almost certainly have a negative impact on growth in the short run and have important distributional consequences for individuals and communities who today rely on coal. But with the right policies, these costs—which are non-negligible but dwarfed by the cost of climate change over the next decade if no action is taken—can be significantly curtailed. This paper provides an in depth review of the current climate policy landscape in India and models emissions trajectories under different policy options to reduce GHG emissions.
Keywords:
Climate; IMF-ENV; India; net zero; climate policy landscape; research department; cost of climate change; emissions intensity; demand management; Greenhouse gas emissions; Renewable energy; Climate finance; Non-renewable resources; Electricity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Jobs Impact of Green Energy
Jaden Kim
and
Mr. Adil Mohommad
This brief paper accompanies the Green Energy and Jobs tool, which is a simple excel-based tool to estimate the job-creation potential of greening the electricity sector. Specifically, it calculates the net job gains or losses from increasing the level of energy efficiency, and from increasing the share of clean and renewable electricity generation in the total electricity output mix. The tool relies on estimates of job multipliers in the literature, and adds evidence from firm-level data on the job-intensity of different energy sources. The paper illustrates applications of the tool using data from the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario compared to business-as-usual. This tool is intended to help country teams engage further on climate change issues in bilateral surveillance.
Keywords:
Renewable energy; jobs; sustainable development; jobs tool; net job gain; job multiplier; electricity sector; electricity generation; Electricity; Non-renewable resources; Job creation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Spending Challenge of Achieving the SDGs in South Asia: Lessons from India
Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
,
Ms. Tewodaj Mogues
,
Marian Moszoro
, and
Mauricio Soto
South Asia has experienced significant progress in improving human and physical capital over the past few decades. Within the region, India has become a global economic powerhouse with enormous development potential ahead. To foster human and economic development, India has shown a strong commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda. This paper focuses on the medium-term development challenges that South Asia, and in particular India, faces to ensure substantial progress along the SDGs by 2030. We estimate the additional spending needed in critical areas of human capital (health and education) and physical capital (water and sanitation, electricity, and roads). We document progress on these five sectors for India relative to other South Asian countries and discuss implications for policy and reform.
Keywords:
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); Human Capital; Infrastructure; India; spending estimation; health outcome; spending challenge; physical capital; SDG sector; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Electricity; South Asia
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals
Mr. Simon Black
,
Ian Parry
,
Mr. James Roaf
, and
Karlygash Zhunussova
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions. The world is currently not yet on track so there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy. Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2oC. And additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed. This IMF Staff Climate Note presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps. It shows purely illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity. The Note also presents country-level analyses of the emissions, fiscal, economic, and distributional impacts of carbon pricing and the trade-offs with other instruments—comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key.
Keywords:
Climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, ambition gap, policy gap, mitigation pledges, abatement costs, carbon pricing, feebates; IMF staff climate note; IMF Staf Climate Notes; mitigation ambition; ambition gap; Paris temperature goal; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Global
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2021
World Economic Outlook, October 2021
Recovery During a Pandemic
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex.

Keywords:
global outlook; growth projections; economic outlook; GDP growth; inflation expectation; commodity market development; inflation risk; inflation pressure; policy priority; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; COVID-19; Consumer prices; Global; Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; Central America; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Quality Upgrading and Export Performance in the Asian Growth Miracle
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
,
Fidel Perez-Sebastian
, and
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
We explore the contribution of product-quality upgrading to the export performance of six fast-growing Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand. We focus on measuring the impact of quality upgrading on the changes in these countries’ sectoral export shares during 1970–2010. We build a multisector Ricardian trade model which allows for changes in product quality, and calibrate it to generate predictions about export volumes. Unlike previous literature, our approach allows estimation without employing domestic production data. Our results point to quality upgrading being a key driver of export shares.
Keywords:
WP; marginal product of labor; export share; product quality; quality upgrading; export volume; export change; exports data; product export; Exports; Export performance; Manufacturing; Agricultural commodities; Oil; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Russian Federation: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; State's share; bank; SOB
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Russian Federation: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Russian state’s footprint in the economy. Available cross-country employment data suggests that the Russian state's is relatively large, like that of Scandinavian countries. In sectors where the state's share is high, economic concentration is larger, but concentration is large even in sectors where the state's share is low. Existing policies to protect and promote competition, including in state procurement, need to be strengthened. The IMF Staff estimates suggest that the state represented about one third of Russia’s value added (VA) in 2016, smaller than in the mainstream narrative but nonetheless large. The Russian state represents close to 40 percent of formal sector activity and 50 percent of formal sector employment. State-owned-enterprises (SOE) are present in most sectors of activity. The state’s share in VA was approximated by its share in sales for market activities, and by employment for nonmarket activities. SOEs appear to underperform relative to non-state firms in a variety of economic activities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; State's share; bank; SOB; state conglomerate; procurement legislation; State entity; development bank; state support; government procurement; State equity participation; Commercial banks; Competition; State-owned banks; Employment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Losing to Blackouts: Evidence from Firm Level Data
Daniel Gurara
and
Dawit Tessema
Many developing economies are often hit by electricity crises either because of supply constraints or lacking in broader energy market reforms. This study uses manufacturing firm census data from Ethiopia to identify productivity losses attributable to power disruptions. Our estimates show that these disruptions, on average, result in productivity losses of about 4–10 percent. We found nonlinear productivity losses at different quantiles along the productivity distribution. Firms at higher quantiles faced higher losses compared to firms around the median. We observed patterns of systematic shutdowns as firms attempt to minimize losses.
Keywords:
WP; production function; productivity loss; Power disruption; Shutdowns; time index; productivity shock; firms shutdown; grid-power consumption; firm age; panel data; state utility company; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Electricity; Labor productivity; Capacity utilization; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa