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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 32 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Financial regulation and supervision x
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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
India: Review and Evaluation of the Reserve Bank of India’s Stress Test Model Framework
Marco Gross
and
Wei Sun
This report provides a brief summary of the purpose and findings of a technical assistance (TA) mission that was intended to review and evaluate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s stress test model suite, which took place in April 2023. The RBI’s model suite was found to be strong and well developed in numerous respects. The most noteworthy recommendations pertain to credit risk, market risk, and macro-financial scenario design. A detailed list of 28 recommendations spanning all areas was left with the RBI. A detailed TA report accompanies this brief summary report.
Keywords:
Bank solvency risk analysis; liquidity risk analysis; contagion analysis; stress test model framework; IMF team; RBI's model suite; TA mission; summary report; Stress testing; Market risk
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
India: Technical Assistance Report-Review and Evaluation of the Reserve Bank of India’s Stress Test Model Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report summarizes the content and findings of a technical assistance (TA) mission that was reviewing and evaluating the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s stress test model suite. The RBI’s model suite was found to be strong and well developed in numerous respects. The most noteworthy recommendations pertain to credit risk, market risk, and macro-financial scenario design. A detailed list of recommendations spanning all areas was left with the RBI.
Keywords:
Bank solvency risk analysis; liquidity risk analysis; contagion analysis; India.; IMF TA mission member; CD recipient; revaluation calculation; stress test model framework; executive director Dr. O. P. Mall; Stress testing; Market risk; Credit risk; Nonperforming loans; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monitoring Privately-held Firms' Default Risk in Real Time: A Signal-Knowledge Transfer Learning Model
Jorge A Chan-Lau
,
Ruofei Hu
,
Luca Mungo
,
Ritong Qu
,
Weining Xin
, and
Cheng Zhong
We develop a mixed-frequency, tree-based, gradient-boosting model designed to assess the default risk of privately held firms in real time. The model uses data from publicly-traded companies to construct a probability of default (PD) function. This function integrates high-frequency, market-based, aggregate distress signals with low-frequency, firm-level financial ratios, and macroeconomic indicators. When provided with private firms' financial ratios, the model, which we name signal-knowledge transfer learning model (SKTL), transfers insights gained from 35 thousand publicly-traded firms to more than 4 million private-held ones and performs well as an ordinal measure of privately-held firms' default risk.
Keywords:
Default risk; Corporate sector; Privately-held firm; Gradient boosting; Transfer learning; signal-knowledge transfer learning model; publicly-traded firm; gradient-boosting model; transfers insight; held firm; Financial statements; Debt default; Solvency; Credit risk; Europe; North America; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Andrea Deghi
,
Mr. Salih Fendoglu
,
Tara Iyer
,
Mr. Hamid R Tabarraei
,
Yizhi Xu
, and
Mustafa Yenice
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the relationship between sovereigns and banks—the so-called sovereign-bank nexus—in emerging market economies to the fore as bank holdings of domestic sovereign debt have surged. This paper examines the empirical relevance of this nexus to assess how it could amplify macro-financial stability risks. The findings show that an increase in sovereign credit risk can adversely affect banks’ balance sheets and credit supply, especially in countries with less-well-capitalized banking systems. Sovereign distress can also impact banks indirectly through the nonfinancial corporate sector by constraining their funding and reducing their capital expenditure. Notably, the effects on banks and corporates are strongly nonlinear in the size of the sovereign distress.
Keywords:
Sovereign-bank nexus; emerging markets; financial stability; sovereign risk; COVID-19; banking sector; corporate investment; outcome variable; Annex I. data description; summary statistics; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Credit default swap; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility -Press Release; Staff Report; Debt Sustainability Analysis; Staff Supplement; Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted Nepal’s economy. Tourist arrivals collapsed, domestic activity plummeted, and remittances have been volatile. As a result, balance of payments and fiscal financing gaps emerged. After growth was lower than expected in 2019/20, a gradual resumption in economic activity and a corresponding surge in imports and related tax receipts led to higher growth and improved fiscal outturns in 2020/21. However, important fiscal and external financing needs remain to support the COVID-19 response, facilitate a continued recovery, and maintain a comfortable level of reserves.
Keywords:
financing gap; procurement contract; ECF arrangement; November data; import surge; consumer price inflation; COVID-19; Debt relief; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Capital and the Cost of Equity
Mohamed Belkhir
,
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
, and
Anis Semet
Using a sample of publicly listed banks from 62 countries over the 1991-2017 period, we investigate the impact of capital on banks’ cost of equity. Consistent with the theoretical prediction that more equity in the capital mix leads to a fall in firms’ costs of equity, we find that better capitalized banks enjoy lower equity costs. Our baseline estimations indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in a bank’s equity-to-assets ratio lowers its cost of equity by about 18 basis points. Our results also suggest that the form of capital that investors value the most is sheer equity capital; other forms of capital, such as Tier 2 regulatory capital, are less (or not at all) valued by investors. Additionally, our main finding that capital has a negative effect on banks’ cost of equity holds in both developed and developing countries. The results of this paper provide the missing evidence in the debate on the effects of higher capital requirements on banks’ funding costs.
Keywords:
WP; bank capital; capital requirement; financial risk; capital measure; Cost of equity; Banking regulation; Financial stability; return on equity; bank capitalization; bank cost; capitalized bank; bank capital measure; funding cost; financial leverage decrease; risk profile; Stocks; Capital adequacy requirements; Stock markets; Return on investment; Loan loss provisions; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence
Minsuk Kim
This paper examines how financial development influences the debt dollarization of nonfinancial firms in a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). The macroeconomic channels are identified from an optimal portfolio allocation model and assessed empirically using the accounting information of nonfinancial firms from 21 EMEs during 2009–2017. The results show that financial development, measured by the private credit-to-GDP ratio, mainly reduces the influence of exchange rate volatility in determining a firm's debt currency composition, among other channels. Furthermore, the effect of exchange rate volatility becomes statistically insignificant beyond an estimated threshold credit-to-GDP ratio of 100 percent.
Keywords:
WP; debt ratio; exchange rate volatility; foreign currency; explanatory variable; Dollarization; Financial Development; Original Sin; dollar debt ratio; nonfinancial firm; sample firm; balance sheet currency exposure; Exchange rates; Currencies; Depreciation; Financial sector development; Exchange rate risk; Asia and Pacific; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; East Asia; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Legal Protection: Liability and Immunity Arrangements of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors
Mr. Ashraf Khan
This paper argues that central bank legal protection contributes to safeguarding a central bank and its financial supervisor’s independence, especially for conducting monetary and financial stability policy. However, such legal protection also entails enhanced accountability. To this end, the paper provides a selected overview of legal protection for central banks and financial supervisors (if the supervisor is part of the central bank), focusing on liability, immunity, and indemnification arrangements, and based on the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database. The paper also uses data from the IMF’s Article IV and FSAP Database, and the IMF MCM’s Technical Assistance Database. It lists selected country cases for illustrative purposes. It introduces the concepts of “appropriate legal protection” and “function-specific legal protection” as topics for further research.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; government; country; monetary policy; staff; central banking; financial supervision; financial regulation; law; liability; immunity; technical assistance; central bank law; civil servant statute; State agency; central bank staff; liability standard; central bank liability; central bank governor; indemnification arrangement; liability regime; central bank website; State liability; central bank liability standard; Central bank legislation; Legal support in revenue administration; Central bank autonomy; Central bank governance; Global; Asia and Pacific; financial supervisor
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report evaluates the Observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision in India. It highlights that the supervision and regulation by the Reserve Bank of India remain strong and have improved in recent years. A key achievement is implementation of a risk-based supervisory approach that uses a complex supervisory assessment framework to guide the intensity of supervisory actions and the allocation of supervisory resources. Also, most of the Basel III framework has been implemented and cooperation arrangements, both domestically and cross-border, are now firmly in place. The system-wide asset quality review and the strengthening of prudential regulations in 2015 testify to the authorities’ commitment to transparency and a more accurate recognition of banking risks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; risk management; state bank; central bank; correspondent bank; senior management; credit risk; risk profile; internal audit; Market risk; Operational risk; Credit risk; Stress testing; Bank supervision; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Frictions, Underinvestment, and Investment Composition: Evidence from Indian Corporates
Miss Sonali Das
and
Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
This paper studies private investment in India against the backdrop of a significant investment decline over the past decade. We analyze the potential causes of weaker investment at the firm level, using both firm-level financial statements and a novel dataset on firms’ investment project decisions, and find that financial frictions have played a role in the slowdown. Firms with higher financial leverage invest less, as do firms with lower earnings relative to their interest expenses. Consistent with the notion of credit constraints leading to pro-cyclical investment, we also find that firms with higher leverage are (i) less likely to undertake new investment projects, (ii) less likely to complete investment projects once begun, and (iii) undertake shorter-term investment projects.
Keywords:
WP; firm; investment; investment rate; financial leverage; Corporate Leverage; India; investment project; Project length; firm investment; investment expenditure; investment decision; investment slowdown; Stocks; Exports; Capital adequacy requirements; Financial frictions; Private investment; Global