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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
As part of the IMF-South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) work program, a technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted during April 2–13, 2018. The mission assisted the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA) in compiling and disseminating external debt statistics (EDS) consistent with the international investment position (IIP), reviewed the compilation method of direct investment statistics, and assessed the coverage of external flows related to hydropower projects.
International Monetary Fund
The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology and Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report for a discussion of more recent refinements). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis. Since estimates are subject to uncertainty, overall assessments are presented in ranges. The external sector assessments are based on data and IMF staff projections as of June 15th, 2017. The external assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position.[1] The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.
International Monetary Fund
operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?
International Monetary Fund
Before the earthquakes of April 25 and May 12, Nepal’s macroeconomic performance was relatively strong: Growth accelerated to 5.5 percent in 2013/14, thanks largely to a favorable monsoon; Inflation had been moderating, broadly in line with developments in India, but remained high at 7 percent (y/y) in March 2015; The fiscal position in 2013/14 (mid-July 2013 to mid-July 2014) was again in surplus, on account of under-execution of spending amid solid revenue growth. As a result, public debt eased further, to 25 percent of GDP. The trend of budget under-execution continued through April 2015, indicating that a small fiscal surplus looked again likely in 2014/15. Public debt remained on a declining path; The external position remained strong. The current account surplus reached 4.6 percent of GDP in 2013/14, as remittances continued to grow rapidly, reaching a record-high 28 percent of GDP. Net of remittances, however, Nepal ran a current account deficit of 23.6 percent of GDP in 2013/14. International reserves rose to US$6.2 billion by March 2015, equal to 29 percent of GDP and covering almost eight months of prospective imports. The earthquakes are expected to cause an initial slowdown in economic activity.