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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, June 2021
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Amid a multispeed economic recovery—including within countries and across sectors, age groups, genders, and skill levels—this issue explores several cross-cutting themes for emerging markets.
Keywords:
emerging market growth; integrity risk; BRICs promise; jobs dilemma; employer flexibility; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Income inequality; COVID-19; Defense spending; Monetary unions; Global; Africa; Asia and Pacific; West Africa; Europe; Caribbean; South Asia
Cover Policy Papers
2019 Quota Data Update
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The paper presents summary results for the updated data set, with country-by-country details provided in Appendix I. In terms of broad country groups, the results of the data update are broadly consistent with trends observed in previous updates. The aggregate share of Emerging Market and Developing Countries (EMDCs) increased by 0.3 pp, to 50.0 percent, following a small decline in the EMDCs’ share recorded in the 2018 data update. The rising EMDC share reflected again foremost an increase for Asia. Most advanced economies recorded a small decrease in their calculated quota share using the current quota formula.
Keywords:
PP; openness variable; annexes advance; cutoff date; EMDC share; PPP GDP share; Purchasing power parity; Financial account; Labor unions; Monetary unions; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect
Patrick Blagrave
Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks—a result which the paper terms the ‘monsoon effect.’ Economies with higher trade integration and co-movement in nominal effective exchange rates also experience greater food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, cross-country co-movement in core inflation is weak and the aforementioned determinants have little explanatory power, suggesting a prominent role for idiosyncratic domestic factors in driving core inflation. In the context of the growing literature on the globalization of inflation, these results suggest that common weather patterns are partly responsible for any role played by a so-called ‘global factor’ among inflation rates in emerging and developing economies, in Asia at least.
Keywords:
WP; moving average; Core CPI Inflation; dependent variable; Inflation; spillovers; co-movement; weather; headline inflation inflation rate; core CPI Inflation co-movement; movement regression; food inflation; core inflation process; inflation outcome; Trade integration; Nominal effective exchange rate; Food prices; Asia and Pacific; Global; monsoon effect; food Inflation co-movement regression; copyright page; robustness check; food Inflation co-movement
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2014, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2014, Asia and Pacific
Sustaining the Momentum: Vigilance and Reforms
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The five Regional Economic Outlooks published biannually by the IMF cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. In each volume, recent economic developments and prospects for the region are discussed as a whole, as well as for specific countries. The reports include key data for countries in the region. Each report focuses on policy developments that have affected economic performance in the region, and discusses key challenges faced by policymakers. The near-term outlook, key risks, and their related policy challenges are analyzed throughout the reports, and current issues are explored, such as when and how to withdraw public interventions in financial systems globally while maintaining a still-fragile economic recovery.These indispensable surveys are the product of comprehensive intradepartmental reviews of economic developments that draw primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through consultation with member countries.

Keywords:
REO; economy; price; IMF staff calculation; leverage ratio; trade integration; household debt; industry trade; house price; Housing prices; Credit; Capital flows; Inflation; Trade integration; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Mr. Damien Puy
,
Mr. Yiqun Wu
, and
Ms. Longmei Zhang
The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.
Keywords:
WP; economic growth; per capita income; simple average; growth; slowdown; middle income trap; Bayesian Model Averaging; rate of growth; physical capital; time series; relative frequency; middle-income economy; fertility rate; Income; Capital inflows; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Infrastructure; Regional integration; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover Asian Monetary Integration
Asian Monetary Integration
Will It Ever Happen?
Tharman Shanmugaratnam

Abstract

This paper examines the possibility of Asian monetary integration. The paper highlights that the objectives and motivations behind the continuing debate for Asian monetary integration have now evolved. The objectives are no longer defensive, no longer preoccupied with crisis prevention or resolution. They are now more forward looking; they are about growth, about greater trade integration, about spurring greater cross-border flows of investment within Asia, and about promoting the integration and deepening of financial markets.

Keywords:
MISC PERIOD; Misc.; managing director of the IMF; Asia; fixture of the Annual Meetings; CEIC database; export destination; representatives of the Association; Currencies; Financial integration; Monetary unions; Exchange rate policy; Exports; Europe; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover The Per Jacobsson Lecture
The Per Jacobsson Lecture
Asian Monetary integration: Will It Ever Happen?
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper discusses the need for Asian Monetary Integration. The original motivation for proposals for Asian monetary Integration had to do with a desire to reduce Asia’s susceptibility to shocks, particularly financial shocks. There was also a broader sense that Asia had to be more self-reliant and gain fuller control over its destiny. The objectives are about growth, about greater trade integration, about spurring greater cross-border flows of investment within Asia, and about promoting the integration and deepening of financial markets. This paper highlights that financial market integration has lagged substantially behind trade integration, and this is why Asian saving surpluses are intermediated largely through financial markets outside Asia.

Keywords:
MISC PERIOD; Misc.; managing director of the IMF; export destination; Asia; fixture of the Annual Meetings; CEIC database; representatives of the Association; Currencies; Financial integration; Monetary unions; Exchange rate policy; Public expenditure review; Asia and Pacific; Europe; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 35, Issue 01
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
IMF cancels debt; Iraq receives new loan; Brazil and Argentina repay IMF loans; Saudi Arabia Article IV summary; Credit booms in transition economies; India's textile and clothing sector; Maghreb parliamentarians; Public awareness of economic issues.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; special drawing rights; IMF policy development; country; IMF survey; IMF-World Bank spring meeting; IMF HIPC assistance; IMF participation; Debt relief; Exports; Poverty reduction strategy; Credit; Africa; Global; Middle East; Maghreb; Central and Eastern Europe; Credit booms; Regional integration
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2005
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Keywords:
IRB; price; fiscal policy; country; research paper; conference participant; disinflation policy; IMF headquarters; oil price volatility; Oil prices; Inflation; Poverty reduction and development; Monetary unions; Disinflation; West Africa; Global; Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Caribbean; East Africa
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2004
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country focus; country; central bank of Brazil; macroeconomic policy; IMF story; major challenge; successor regime; Monetary unions; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Corruption; Stress testing; Africa; Global; West Africa; Southern Africa; Europe