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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Prudent macroeconomic policies have supported India’s economic resilience, with growth expected to recover from a recent softening and inflation expected to converge to target. Risks to the outlook include deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and a slower pace of domestic demand recovery.
Keywords:
IMF article; headline inflation; fund approval; gross investment; potential GDP; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Capital spending; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
India - State of Odisha - Public Investment Management Assessment — PIMA and Climate PIMA
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
An IMF team found that the State of Odisha had an overall public investment management (PIM) system that compared well with other emerging market economies, reflecting in particular strong institutions at the execution stage, which have helped the State increase significantly its public investment effort over the last few years. The State also displays some encouraging practices in terms of climate-sensitive PIM. However, several challenges persist and have to do mostly with the first stage (planning, appraisal) and the second stage (maintenance, selection of projects) of the PIM cycle. The team has identified five high-priority recommendations that could improve PIM processes and support the effective implementation of the Government of Odisha’s investment policy and development agenda, including to increase resilience against climate change.
Keywords:
Climate change; Climate policy; Public investment management; Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA); Public investment spending; India; Odisha; IMF team; PIM process; high-priority recommendation; State action plan; PIM cycle
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Convergence and Public Finances of India and its States
Rajan Govil
and
Khyati Chauhan
Lack of convergence in per capita income across Indian states requires greater resources for lower-income states for investment and improved public services. Central and state governments need to raise revenue (both tax and non-tax), dismantle the administered pricing mechanism, reduce subsidies, and reorient expenditure toward national and state-level priorities. This is essential to ensure India remains on a sustainable fiscal path with higher growth, given the high public debt at the centre and state level. The observed wide differences in fiscal parameters across states require a tailored policy for each state. The large stock of debt of several states puts at risk the adequate financing of growth-enchancing expenditures.
Keywords:
India; Growth Convergence; Central and State Public Finances; development expenditure; State public finances; state level; public finances of India; Capital spending; Government debt management; Total expenditures; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exploring the Role of Public Expenditure in Advancing Female Economic Empowerment and Gender Equality
Charla Britt
and
Danielle Egerer
This paper discusses connections between female economic empowerment and government spending. It is an abbreviated overview for non-gender-experts on how fiscal expenditure may support female economic empowerment as an interim step toward advancing gender equality. From this perspective, it offers a preliminary exploration of key factors and indicators associated with gender-differentiated impacts in each of five main categories of public spending (education, health, capital expenditure, government employment and compensation, and social protection and labor market programs). It examines and proposes indices within each category that can be used to identify and measure related gender gaps and suggests associations and connections between those indices, public spending, and other available proxy measurements with some benchmarking potential which is summarized at the end of each category in a Gender Lens Matrix for ease of reference. The paper draws on an extensive literature review and examination of publicly available datasets. It also highlights and discusses gaps in data which limit gender analysis. The purpose of the paper is to advance dialogue on the adoption of a gendered approach to government spending, by providing a gender lens that may assist country level assessments and discussions among IMF staff and member country authorites.
Keywords:
Women’s economic empowerment; gender equality; gender analysis; gender gaps; fiscal expenditure; government spending; youth literacy Gender Parity Index; labor market program; IMF working paper No. 24/108; IMF's expenditure assessment tool; maternity leave; Women; Gender inequality; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Caribbean; South Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Securing Fiscal Discipline and Credibility in WAEMU: WAEMU
Ljubica Dordevic
and
Olivia Y Ibrahim
Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability. The 3 and 70 percent of GDP deficit and debt ceilings envisaged by the expired rule remain appropriate, while addressing the stock-flow adjustments will help rebuild fiscal buffers. Convergence to a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP should be ensured by 2025— barring exceptional circumstances—with focus on domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure. To secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is essential to revamp the fiscal rule with a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses.
Keywords:
monetary union; fiscal policy; fiscal consolidation; fiscal rules; debt; stock flow adjustment; stock-flow adjustment; credibility in WAEMU; deficit ceiling; deficit target; deficit rule; Debt sustainability; Fiscal space; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Indexation in Public Finances: A Global Dataset on Current Practices
Vybhavi Balasundharam
,
Arika Kayastha
, and
Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
This paper presents a new global dataset on current practices for four budget items in terms of indexation to the price level and other nominal variables. Compiling data from documents of select multilateral organizations, governments, and related literature as well as conducting a survey among IMF country desks of 190 country-members, we show how indexation is internationally applied in (i) personal income tax brackets; (ii) pensions; (iii) social assistance programs; and (iv) public wages. The dataset shows that while indexation policies vary significantly across economies, some trends can be identified. For example, indexation is more common on pension and social grants than on taxes, and falls with the degree of economic development. We further discuss some applications of this new dataset. Those include an accounting exercise illustrating the impacts of indexation on fiscal outcomes during episodes of inflation surprises; and an analysis of the association between the overall degree of indexation combining the four budget items and inflation persistence.
Keywords:
Indexation; Inflation; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Insititutions; inflation Indexation; indexation policy; price level; IMF country desk; impacts of indexation; indexation practice; Social assistance spending; Pensions; Pension spending; Wages; Africa; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2021 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Maldives is recovering after the historical 2020 fall in tourism, aided by a rapid coronavirus disease 2019-vaccination program rollout. While the prompt and comprehensive policy approach in early 2020 was effective, a more prolonged pandemic and ambitious infrastructure projects are further weakening large pre-pandemic fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The strong (but still partial) recovery in tourism since 2020Q4 has improved the outlook, but fiscal and external positions are projected to remain weak over the medium term, underpinned by current capital expenditure plans. The Maldives has both a high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of debt distress. The team agreed that a tighter monetary policy stance might be needed to ensure compatibility with the exchange rate peg, lower external imbalances and build-up reserves. They supported the Maldives Monetary Authority’s ongoing efforts to modernize monetary policy and the foreign exchange operations framework, including those aimed at eliminating exchange rate restrictions and multiple currency practices.
Keywords:
positivity rate; program rollout; MMA authorities; staff projection; staff supplement; Maldivian authorities; MMA advance; COVID-19; Capital spending; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Analytical Notes
Subsidies, Trade, and International Cooperation
International Monetary Fund
,
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
, and
World Bank
The international organizations (IOs) authoring this report can strengthen their individual and joint work to support governments in this endeavor. While the brunt of this work lies with finance ministries, trade ministries, and sectoral and specialized agencies of national governments, international organizations have key roles to play. The four authoring institutions are examining ways to help, individually and jointly, such as by collecting, organizing, and sharing data, coordinating analytical work agendas to develop methodologies to assess the cross-border effects of different forms of subsidies, and supporting inter-governmental dialogues. This will involve reaching out to and working with other international institutions as well.
Keywords:
OECD matrix; D. OECD export credit provision; WTO secretariat; data IMF Library; B. support measure; publication order; WTO member; Secretary-General of the OECD; Export credits; Government subsidies; Competition; Agricultural sector; Trade systems; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
trade diversification; B. trade composition; trade logistics; fuel subsidy; conversion plan; exchange rate shock; Energy subsidies; Inflation; Labor force; Exports; Fuel prices; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa