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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Prudent macroeconomic policies have supported India’s economic resilience, with growth expected to recover from a recent softening and inflation expected to converge to target. Risks to the outlook include deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and a slower pace of domestic demand recovery.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
An IMF team found that the State of Odisha had an overall public investment management (PIM) system that compared well with other emerging market economies, reflecting in particular strong institutions at the execution stage, which have helped the State increase significantly its public investment effort over the last few years. The State also displays some encouraging practices in terms of climate-sensitive PIM. However, several challenges persist and have to do mostly with the first stage (planning, appraisal) and the second stage (maintenance, selection of projects) of the PIM cycle. The team has identified five high-priority recommendations that could improve PIM processes and support the effective implementation of the Government of Odisha’s investment policy and development agenda, including to increase resilience against climate change.
Rajan Govil
and
Khyati Chauhan
Lack of convergence in per capita income across Indian states requires greater resources for lower-income states for investment and improved public services. Central and state governments need to raise revenue (both tax and non-tax), dismantle the administered pricing mechanism, reduce subsidies, and reorient expenditure toward national and state-level priorities. This is essential to ensure India remains on a sustainable fiscal path with higher growth, given the high public debt at the centre and state level. The observed wide differences in fiscal parameters across states require a tailored policy for each state. The large stock of debt of several states puts at risk the adequate financing of growth-enchancing expenditures.
Martin Grote
and
Jean-François Wen
Property taxes are often under-exploited sources of local public revenues. A broad-based tax, raised at modest rates, can potentially generate significantly higher revenues in many countries, and meet most of the costs of improved local public services. This note provides a practical guide to designing and implementing reforms to recurrent taxes on immoveable property and real estate transfer taxes. It addresses the fundamental policy choices regarding the property tax base and tax rate, and the key functions of the tax administration for managing collections – valuation, billing, and enforcement. The advice in the note stems from a review of the literature and insights gained from the experiences of the Fiscal Affairs Department in delivering capacity development on property taxes. It covers and updates some of the analytical work by Norregaard (2013) while providing granular advice on practical aspects of reforming property taxes. The note is motivated by the resource mobilization needs of developing countries, but the design considerations are also pertinent for advanced and emerging market economies seeking to increase the revenue productivity of property taxes.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bhutan achieved significant improvements in social conditions during the last decade, raising living standards. Poverty and inequality have declined, while extreme poverty has been eliminated. Growth is projected to accelerate over the medium term as a large hydro-project is commissioned and capital spending is boosted with the support of external grants. Pull factors are expected to slow down emigration, thereby reducing pressures on the supply side. A gradual fiscal consolidation based on revenue mobilization and accompanied by some spending restraint is needed to increase fiscal space and to reduce reliance on external grants in the longer term. Structural policies should focus on fostering high-quality private sector jobs, as well as diversifying exports. There is scope to strengthen the Royal Monetary Authority’s governance framework, as well as to step up anti-money laundering/countering the financing of terrorism efforts. Improvements in data quality have been significant, but further actions are needed to address remaining weaknesses. These include a need for greater transparency on crypto assets operations.
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Productivity must play a more important role in driving sustained growth as our societies age. But there’s no consensus on how to reverse the broad slowdown in productivity growth seen across almost all countries over the past 20 years. F&D magazine’s September issue invites leading thinkers to examine productivity from multiple angles, including dynamism, innovation, demographics, and sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report analyzes Sri Lanka’s options for improving the fairness and progressivity of the tax system through the introduction of a nationwide property tax. Given constitutional constraints that limit the taxation of property at the central government level, it recommends taxing the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. With a suitable exemption threshold and a progressive tax rate structure, such a tax can support fiscal consolidation by raising revenue from the most affluent members of Sri Lanka’s society while introducing little distortions. Implementation and enforcement of the tax will require substantive investments in data infrastructure, including through the introduction of a digital sales price and rents register. The report also outlines options for improving the fairness and revenue productivity of subnational assessment rates (local property taxes) and suggests additional reforms that can complement the taxation of real property at the national and subnational level.
Rudolfs Bems
,
Luciana Juvenal
,
Weifeng Liu
, and
Warwick J. McKibbin
This paper assesses the economic effects of climate policies on different regions and countries with a focus on external adjustment. The paper finds that various climate policies could have substantially different impacts on external balances over the next decade. A credible and globally coordinated carbon tax would decrease current account balances in greener advanced economies and increase current accounts in more fossil-fuel-dependent regions, reflecting a disproportionate decline in investment for the latter group. Green supply-side policies—green subsidy and infrastructure investment—would increase investment and saving but would have a more muted external sector impact because of the constrained pace of expansion for renewables or the symmetry of the infrastructure boost. Country characteristics, such as initial carbon intensity and net fossil fuel exports, ultimately determine the current account responses. For the global economy, a coordinated climate change mitigation policy package would shift capital towards advanced economies. Following an initial rise, the global interest rates would fall over time with increases in the carbon tax. These external sector effects, however, depend crucially on the degree of international policy coordination and credibility.
Margaux MacDonald
and
Ian W.H. Parry
Large reductions in global emissions are needed for the world to be on track to meet global temperature goals. Asia-Pacific countries have a critical role in emissions reduction given their large and rising share in global emissions. This paper discusses the main opportunities and behavioral responses for reducing emissions, and commonly used mitigation instruments. It then considers key design issues for carbon pricing, with a focus on emissions trading schemes (ETS), describes measures to overcome the obstacles to carbon pricing, and discusses experiences with carbon pricing relevant for Asia-Pacific economies. Lastly, the paper covers complementary policy reforms, including reinforcing mitigation instruments, public investment, fuel tax reform, green industrial policies, and supporting reforms to the energy sector. Carbon pricing, including ETSs can be the centerpiece of climate mitigation strategies for most countries, particularly if ETSs are designed to mimic some of the administrative and economic attractions of carbon taxes and implemented appropriately.