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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under the Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of India
Jesper Lindé
,
Patrick Schneider
,
Nujin Suphaphiphat
, and
Hou Wang
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in mitigating economic and financial shocks in India by applying the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF). It highlights how FXI can be a complementary tool in mitigating the tradeoff between output and inflation, specifically under large economic shocks amid temporarily shallow FX markets. The paper indicates that while FXI can soften adverse impacts on domestic demand and output during severe risk-off shocks, its benefits under normal conditions with liquid FX markets are limited.
Keywords:
Integrated policy framework; foreign exchange intervention; risk-off shocks; EM FX intervention proxy; RBI FX intervention; FX Market development; OTC FX turnover; rate Policy; Currency markets; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics
Vu Chau
,
Marina Conesa Martinez
,
Taehoon Kim
, and
John A Spray
We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.
Keywords:
Inflation; global value chains; network; pandemic; spillovers; inflation dynamics; lockdown shock; producer price inflation; reopening policy; PPI inflation; Supply shocks; Fiscal stimulus; COVID-19; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America; Northern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Indexation in Public Finances: A Global Dataset on Current Practices
Vybhavi Balasundharam
,
Arika Kayastha
, and
Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
This paper presents a new global dataset on current practices for four budget items in terms of indexation to the price level and other nominal variables. Compiling data from documents of select multilateral organizations, governments, and related literature as well as conducting a survey among IMF country desks of 190 country-members, we show how indexation is internationally applied in (i) personal income tax brackets; (ii) pensions; (iii) social assistance programs; and (iv) public wages. The dataset shows that while indexation policies vary significantly across economies, some trends can be identified. For example, indexation is more common on pension and social grants than on taxes, and falls with the degree of economic development. We further discuss some applications of this new dataset. Those include an accounting exercise illustrating the impacts of indexation on fiscal outcomes during episodes of inflation surprises; and an analysis of the association between the overall degree of indexation combining the four budget items and inflation persistence.
Keywords:
Indexation; Inflation; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Insititutions; inflation Indexation; indexation policy; price level; IMF country desk; impacts of indexation; indexation practice; Social assistance spending; Pensions; Pension spending; Wages; Africa; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that India is on track to be one of the fastest growing major economies in the world this year, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies. Nonetheless, the economy is facing global headwinds, including a global growth slowdown in an increasingly fragmented world. Policy priorities should focus on replenishing fiscal buffers, securing price stability, maintaining financial stability, and accelerating inclusive growth through comprehensive structural reforms while preserving debt sustainability. Elevated public debt calls for ambitious medium-term consolidation, while continuing to prioritize capital spending. This should be complemented with a sound medium-term fiscal framework to promote transparency and accountability and align policies with India’s development goals. In order to reap the benefits of demographic tailwinds, structural policy should focus on promoting high quality job-rich growth, underpinned by comprehensive reform in areas of education, health, land, agriculture, and labor markets, including measures to boost female labor force participation. Continuing investment in infrastructure, strengthening governance, and enhancing a sound business environment are critical.
Keywords:
policy priority; WPI base year; infrastructure program; CPI series; household inflation expectation; gross investment; policy recommendation; financial asset; FDI regime; fund approval; CPI weight; Inflation; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline under the program is starting to bear fruit. The economy is stabilizing as exchange rate pressures have eased and inflation, while still high, is on a downward trend. The authorities’ main near-term policy priority is to maintain fiscal prudence while protecting the most vulnerable and supporting growth-enhancing investment. Decisive fiscal adjustment is putting debt on a firm downward trajectory even as expenditures to protect the vulnerable are being prioritized. Monetary and fiscal restraints are easing pressures on the exchange rate, but inflation has yet to move decisively lower. Efforts are underway to broaden the tax base, increase spending efficiency, improve governance, and address longstanding vulnerabilities in the financial system. The authorities have enacted an amendment to increase value added tax revenues and have finalized a framework to assess banks’ recapitalization and restructuring plans.
Keywords:
end-December QPC; staff appraisal; near-term policy priority; governance reform; Surinamese authorities; Arrears; Inflation; Debt restructuring; Caribbean; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finanzas y Desarrollo, Marzo de 2023: Nuevos rumbos para la política monetaria
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, March 2023
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation surge; tepid inflation; household inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Gold; Silver; Digitalization; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2023: New Directions for Monetary Policy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, March 2023
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation surge; tepid inflation; household inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Gold; Silver; Digitalization; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finances Et Développement, Mars 2023: De nouvelles orientations pour la politique monétaire
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
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Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation surge; tepid inflation; household inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Gold; Silver; Digitalization; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2023: New Directions for Monetary Policy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, March 2023
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation surge; tepid inflation; household inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Gold; Silver; Digitalization; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The economy has rebounded from the pandemic-related downturn but is facing new headwinds. The authorities have responded with fiscal policy measures to support vulnerable groups and to mitigate the economic impact of commodity price increases, as well as with front-loaded monetary policy tightening to address elevated inflation. A world class public digital infrastructure is facilitating innovation, productivity improvements and access to services. Further structural reforms, including to address the adverse impact of climate change, are needed to secure strong and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
RBI values equity liability; insolvency regime; headline consumer price inflation; monetary policy action; digitalization success; gross investment; poverty estimate; Credit; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe; South Asia; Europe