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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier
Cristian Alonso
and
Margaux MacDonald
While India’s growth has been strong in recent decades, its structural transformation remains incomplete. In this paper, we first take stock of India’s growth to date. We find that economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services, but agriculture remains the predominant employer. Catch up to the technological frontier has been uneven, with limited progress in agriculture, but also in construction and trade, which have grown the most in terms of employment. We do find some Indian firms already operating at the technological frontier. These strong performers tend to be large firms. We then consider India’s employment challenge going forward. We find that India needs to create between 143-324 million jobs by 2050 and that doing so and with workers shifting towards more dynamic sectors could boost GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. Structural reforms can help India create high-quality jobs and accelerate growth.
Keywords:
Economywide Production; Potential Output; Labor Productivity; Employment; Structural Transformation; Technological Frontier.; frontier employment; India's employment challenge; technology frontier; growth decomposition; IMF staff estimate; industry level; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Informal Economy: An Augmented Factor Model Approach
Jiaxiong Yao
This paper develops a new approach to estimating the degree of informality in an economy. It combines direct yet infrequent measures of the informal economy in micro data with an augmented factor model that links macro indicators of the informal economy to its causes. We show that the prevailing model used in the literature, the multiple indicators multiple causes model, is a special case of the augmented factor model and depicts an incomplete picture of the informal economy. Using the augmented factor model approach, we show that the dynamics of the informal economy is shaped by the strength of overall economic activity as well as the interplay between the formal and informal economies. Contrary to previous work that typically finds declining informality for most countries, we find that the degree of informality has increased for low-income countries for the past two decades.
Keywords:
Informality; augmented factor model; MIMIC model; survey data; indicators of the informal economy; WBES data; D. adding nighttime; nighttime Light; component analysis; Informal economy; Factor models; Monetary base; Electricity; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy
Reda Cherif
and
Fuad Hasanov
Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged competition, economies of scale, innovation, and local integration and provided market signals to policymakers. Even in a large market such as India, import substitution policies in the automotive industry failed because of micromanagement and misaligned incentives. We also analyze the risk tradeoffs involved in various industrial policy strategies and their implications on the 21st century industrial policies. While state interventions may be needed to develop some new capabilities and industries, trade protectionism is neither a necessary nor a sufficient tool and will most likely be counterproductive.
Keywords:
Industrial policy; export orientation; import substitution; growth; diversification; innovation; technology; import substitution policy; D. export orientation; risk tradeoff; policies in India; Policy strategy; Exports; Manufacturing; Imports; Tariffs; Competition; Global; Caribbean; North America
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Mauro Cazzaniga
,
Florence Jaumotte
,
Longji Li
,
Giovanni Melina
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Emma J Rockall
, and
Marina Mendes Tavares
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely due to their employment structure focused on cognitive-intensive roles. There are some consistent patterns concerning AI exposure, with women and college-educated individuals more exposed but also better poised to reap AI benefits, and older workers potentially less able to adapt to the new technology. Labor income inequality may increase if the complementarity between AI and high-income workers is strong, while capital returns will increase wealth inequality. However, if productivity gains are sufficiently large, income levels could surge for most workers. In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation, while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging market and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; Labor Market; Job Displacement; Income Inequality; Advanced Economies; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; AI preparedness index; AI benefit; AI exposure; ICT employment share; AI adoption; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Income; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Notes
Expanding and Improving Social Safety Nets Through Digitalization: Conceptual Framework and Review of Country Experiences
Nicolo Bird
and
Emine Hanedar
Social safety nets (SSNs) are focal policies that support poor and vulnerable households, most prominently through cash transfers. However, strong discrepancies persist across countries in terms of spending, coverage, and targeting of SSNs, with larger gaps often found in low-income countries. Digital technologies can prove vital in supporting a rapid expansion of SSNs around the world. Governments need to do three things for this: identify, verify, and pay. This note explains how countries can make considerable improvements across these three dimensions despite differences in capacity levels. It examines six case studies of countries―Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo, India, Pakistan, Togo, and Türkiye―that used and adapted digital technologies in different ways due, in large part, to variations in digital SSN infrastructures in place before the onset of COVID-19. These case studies illustrate how (1) innovative digital technologies can help overcome lack of government capacity to implement SSNs, even in countries with a lack of digital infrastructure or capacity, and (2) countries with stronger digital infrastructure or investments in SSNs before COVID-19 were able to complement existing policies to reach more people and to provide stronger responses than countries without preexisting SSN frameworks.
Keywords:
social safety nets; digitalization; COVID-19; fiscal sustainability
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Is the Paris Agreement Working? A Stocktake of Global Climate Mitigation
Mr. Simon Black
,
Ian W.H. Parry
, and
Karlygash Zhunussova
Urgent and aggressive action to cut greenhouse gas emissions this decade is needed. As countries take stock of the Paris Agreement, this Note provides IMF staff’s annual assessment of global climate mitigation policy. Global ambition needs to be more than quadrupled: emissions cuts of 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 are needed for 1.5 degrees Celsius, but current targets would only achieve 11 percent. We provide options for ratcheting-up ambition equitably. Implementation could be accelerated via agreements on minimum carbon prices. Drastic increases in mitigation investment are needed, requiring policies to shift private sector incentives. Climate finance should be scaled-up, with a new goal aligned with needs in developing countries. The development and diffusion of low-carbon technologies should be accelerated collaboratively. Overall, the Paris Agreement is making progress, but a response to the Global Stocktake that prioritizes decisive action this decade is critical.
Keywords:
Paris Agreement; climate mitigation; carbon pricing; climate finance; low-carbon technology; climate investment; IMF staff climate note; IMF staff climate NOTE 2023/002; mitigation policy; Policy package; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Central Bank Digital Currency's Role in Promoting Financial Inclusion
Ashley Lannquist
and
Brandon Tan
Financial inclusion is a key policy objective that central banks, especially those in emerging and low-income countries, are considering for retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). If properly designed to address the barriers to financial inclusion, CBDCs have the opportunity to gain acceptance by the financially excluded for digital payments. CBDC can then serve as an entry point to the broader formal financial system. CBDC has special aspects that may benefit financial inclusion, such as being a risk-free and widely acceptable form of digital money, availability for offline payments, and potentially lower costs and greater accessibility. However, CBDC is not a panacea to financial inclusion, and additional experience is needed to fully understand its potential impact.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currency; financial inclusion; digital inclusion; digital payments; central bank digital currency's role; IMF Fintech Note 2023/011; IMF Library; publication order; publications service; Central Bank digital currencies; Digital financial services; Payment systems; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mr. Zamid Aligishiev
,
Ms. Gabriela Cugat
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Davide Furceri
,
João Tovar Jalles
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Giovanni Melina
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio mainly through higher fiscal revenues and lower borrowing costs. These effects are larger in countries with greater tax efficiency, lower informality, and higher initial debt. Moreover, a model-based analysis elaborates on how such fiscal gains can be enhanced when revenue windfalls associated with reforms are saved or channeled through higher public investment.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Debt Dynamics; Economic Regulation; Structural Reforms; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; market reform; reform impact; GDP ratio; government debt reduction; government policy response; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Debt reduction; Fiscal stance; Global; Asia and Pacific; Debt sustainability analysis
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks
Caterina Lepore
and
Roshen Fernando
This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate conditions (representative of heatwaves, coldwaves, droughts, and floods). Secondly, we produce forward-looking sectoral productivity changes for a global multisectoral sample of firms. For floods, these estimates account for the persistent productivity changes from the damage to firms’ physical capital. Thirdly, we assess the macroeconomic impact of these shocks within the global, multisectoral, intertemporal general equilibrium model: G-Cubed. The results indicate that, in the absence of additional adaptation relative to that already achieved by 2020, all the economies would experience substantial losses under the two climate scenarios and the losses would increase with global warming. The results can be useful for policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting climate risk analysis.
Keywords:
climate risk analysis; capital markets department; climate risk; physical capital; productivity change; Climate change; Productivity; Agricultural sector; Natural disasters; Global; North America; Western Europe; Europe