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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 377 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intimate Partner Violence and Women’s Economic Empowerment: Evidence from Indian States
Monique Newiak
,
Ratna Sahay
, and
Navya Srivastava
Domestic violence is a global phenomenon. We study the interplay of determinants of a woman’s risk of facing intimate partner violence (IPV) for the case of India—using information from up to 235 thousand female survey respondents and exploiting state-level variation in institutions, law enforcement and attitudes. Unless in paid and formal employment, a woman’s economic activity is associated with a higher risk of IPV. However, household and other characteristics, such as higher agency within the household, higher education of the husband, lower social acceptance of IPV, and normalization of reporting incidences of violence counter this association. At the state level, the presence of more female leaders, better reporting infrastructure for victims of IPV, and higher charge-sheeting rates are associated with a lower risk of IPV.
Keywords:
Female employment; labor force participation; intimate partner violence; legal rights; institutions; employment Mitigate IPV; Annex II; empowerment evidence; IPV risk; respondent characteristic; survey respondent; Women; Employment; Gender diversity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under the Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of India
Jesper Lindé
,
Patrick Schneider
,
Nujin Suphaphiphat
, and
Hou Wang
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in mitigating economic and financial shocks in India by applying the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF). It highlights how FXI can be a complementary tool in mitigating the tradeoff between output and inflation, specifically under large economic shocks amid temporarily shallow FX markets. The paper indicates that while FXI can soften adverse impacts on domestic demand and output during severe risk-off shocks, its benefits under normal conditions with liquid FX markets are limited.
Keywords:
Integrated policy framework; foreign exchange intervention; risk-off shocks; EM FX intervention proxy; RBI FX intervention; FX Market development; OTC FX turnover; rate Policy; Currency markets; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Convergence and Public Finances of India and its States
Rajan Govil
and
Khyati Chauhan
Lack of convergence in per capita income across Indian states requires greater resources for lower-income states for investment and improved public services. Central and state governments need to raise revenue (both tax and non-tax), dismantle the administered pricing mechanism, reduce subsidies, and reorient expenditure toward national and state-level priorities. This is essential to ensure India remains on a sustainable fiscal path with higher growth, given the high public debt at the centre and state level. The observed wide differences in fiscal parameters across states require a tailored policy for each state. The large stock of debt of several states puts at risk the adequate financing of growth-enchancing expenditures.
Keywords:
India; Growth Convergence; Central and State Public Finances; development expenditure; State public finances; state level; public finances of India; Capital spending; Government debt management; Total expenditures; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dynamic Development Accounting and Relative Income Traps
Patrick A. Imam
and
Jonathan R. W. Temple
Previous research suggests that economy-wide poverty traps are rarely observed in the data. In this paper, we explore a related hypothesis: low-income countries rarely improve their position relative to the US. Using finite state Markov chains, we show that upwards mobility is indeed limited. Since capital-output ratios are similar across countries, and human capital is also converging, the persistence of low relative income seems to originate in the persistence of low relative TFP. We study the dynamics of relative TFP and how they interact with absolute levels of human capital, casting new light on the future of convergence.
Keywords:
Economic growth; development accounting; low-income trap; poverty trap; income trap; state Markov chains; country sample; OECD member country; relative TFP; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Growth accounting; Income; Capital productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Programmability in Payment and Settlement
Xavier Lavayssière
and
Nicolas Zhang
Programmability in payment and settlement has yet to realize its potential to support policy goals such as efficiency, safety, and innovation. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for understanding and evaluating programmability. It explores two key dimensions: external programmatic access, which is the ability for external participants to access the system data and functions with code, and internal programmatic capabilities, the extent to which internal execution of programs is supported and guaranteed. By developing strategies based on these dimensions, financial institutions, regulators, and related actors can better improve resilience, reduce costs and interoperability, all while managing associated risks. The resulting hybrid systems are coordinated efforts balancing the advantages of permissionless blockchains, such as composability, with regulatory requirements and a wider range of technologies. The paper describes these programmatic models to inform and guide the development of digital finance, bridging policy discussions with technical considerations.
Keywords:
Programmability; Tokenization; Automation; Payment; Settlement; closed-loop payment system; blockchain infrastructure; payment category; settlement mechanism; financial asset; settlement system; Smart contracts; Payment systems; Blockchain and DLT; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Policies and External Adjustment
Rudolfs Bems
,
Luciana Juvenal
,
Weifeng Liu
, and
Warwick J. McKibbin
This paper assesses the economic effects of climate policies on different regions and countries with a focus on external adjustment. The paper finds that various climate policies could have substantially different impacts on external balances over the next decade. A credible and globally coordinated carbon tax would decrease current account balances in greener advanced economies and increase current accounts in more fossil-fuel-dependent regions, reflecting a disproportionate decline in investment for the latter group. Green supply-side policies—green subsidy and infrastructure investment—would increase investment and saving but would have a more muted external sector impact because of the constrained pace of expansion for renewables or the symmetry of the infrastructure boost. Country characteristics, such as initial carbon intensity and net fossil fuel exports, ultimately determine the current account responses. For the global economy, a coordinated climate change mitigation policy package would shift capital towards advanced economies. Following an initial rise, the global interest rates would fall over time with increases in the carbon tax. These external sector effects, however, depend crucially on the degree of international policy coordination and credibility.
Keywords:
Global climate policies; carbon tax; net-zero emissions; current account balances; international capital flows; dynamic general equilibrium modelling; G-Cubed; climate change mitigation policy package; current account response; IMF working paper 24/162; infrastructure investment; investment response; Current account; Greenhouse gas emissions; Productivity; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Options for Climate Mitigation: Emissions Trading Schemes in Asia-Pacific
Margaux MacDonald
and
Ian W.H. Parry
Large reductions in global emissions are needed for the world to be on track to meet global temperature goals. Asia-Pacific countries have a critical role in emissions reduction given their large and rising share in global emissions. This paper discusses the main opportunities and behavioral responses for reducing emissions, and commonly used mitigation instruments. It then considers key design issues for carbon pricing, with a focus on emissions trading schemes (ETS), describes measures to overcome the obstacles to carbon pricing, and discusses experiences with carbon pricing relevant for Asia-Pacific economies. Lastly, the paper covers complementary policy reforms, including reinforcing mitigation instruments, public investment, fuel tax reform, green industrial policies, and supporting reforms to the energy sector. Carbon pricing, including ETSs can be the centerpiece of climate mitigation strategies for most countries, particularly if ETSs are designed to mimic some of the administrative and economic attractions of carbon taxes and implemented appropriately.
Keywords:
Emissions trading scheme; climate; Asia; mitigation instrument; climate mitigation strategy; mitigation opportunity; Asia-Pacific country; policy reform; transmission company; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Non-wage benefits; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier
Cristian Alonso
and
Margaux MacDonald
While India’s growth has been strong in recent decades, its structural transformation remains incomplete. In this paper, we first take stock of India’s growth to date. We find that economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services, but agriculture remains the predominant employer. Catch up to the technological frontier has been uneven, with limited progress in agriculture, but also in construction and trade, which have grown the most in terms of employment. We do find some Indian firms already operating at the technological frontier. These strong performers tend to be large firms. We then consider India’s employment challenge going forward. We find that India needs to create between 143-324 million jobs by 2050 and that doing so and with workers shifting towards more dynamic sectors could boost GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. Structural reforms can help India create high-quality jobs and accelerate growth.
Keywords:
Economywide Production; Potential Output; Labor Productivity; Employment; Structural Transformation; Technological Frontier.; frontier employment; India's employment challenge; technology frontier; growth decomposition; IMF staff estimate; industry level; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Price of De-Risking Reshoring, Friend-Shoring, and Quality Downgrading
Diego A. Cerdeiro
,
Parisa Kamali
,
Siddharth Kothari
, and
Dirk V Muir
This paper estimates the costs of ‘de-risking’ scenarios between China and OECD members at the aggregate and sectoral levels. Aggregate large-scale de-risking – reshoring by increasing reliance on domestic production and friend-shoring by reducing imports from specific foreign countries – is quantified with the IMF’s GIMF model, suggesting significant permanent effects on the global economy. Returning integration to 2000 levels translates into long-term global GDP losses of 4.5 percent under reshoring and as much as 1.8 percent under friend-shoring. Friend-shoring does not necessarily deliver a boon to third countries as trade diversion benefits might be largely offset by contractions in China and OECD members. Sectoral de-risking, where all trade between rivals is eliminated in specific products, is quantified through empirical estimation of the scope for quality downgrading. The results demonstrate the potential for significant losses in input quality should there be an escalation in export bans. Losses are asymmetric against China in the specific case of semiconductors but can be significant for both sides in other sectors—including in critical areas such as environmental goods.
Keywords:
De-risking; fragmentation; reshoring; friend-shoring; export bans; quality downgrading.; GIMF model; quality downgrading; trade diversion benefit; OECD member; OECD economy; Global value chains; Exports; Imports; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific