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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on long-term impact of Brexit on the European Union (EU). This paper examines consequences of Brexit on the EU27 under various post-Brexit scenarios by using two different complementary approaches. Our results, which are broadly in line with recent findings in the literature, are twofold. First, Brexit would have negative effects on the EU27 as well, given the depth and the complexity of the EU-U.K. integration. Similar to various empirical studies, it has been observed that the estimated long-term output and employment losses (in percent) for the EU27 in the study are on average lower than the corresponding losses for the UK estimated in the literature. The level of output and employment are estimated to fall at most by up to 1.5 percent and 0.7 percent in the long run in the event of a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario, respectively. A “soft” Brexit outcome would lead to much lower losses.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Brexit; employment growth; job prospect; youth employment; U.K. migrant; EU-U.K. trade integration; euro area; Labor force; Employment; Unemployment; Unemployment rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the cyclical position of the Irish economy. Assessing the business cycle in Ireland is complicated by the open character of its labor market and large presence of globally active multinationals. However, analysis suggests that the Irish economy is in the midst of a cyclical upswing. All methods suggest a positive output gap in 2017, while the labor market shows signs of upward wage pressures, as net immigration has been weak so far. These signs are consistent with a cyclical upswing, amid strong estimated potential output growth, and point to risks of a boom-bust cycle, should the economy continue to push the growth momentum.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; commercial real estate; price; CRE price; labor force gap; growth labor force growth; exit tax; CRE market; Labor force; Corporate income tax; Personal income; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Davide Furceri
, and
João Tovar Jalles
This paper explores the short-term employment effect of deregulating job protection for regular workers and how it varies with prevailing business cycle conditions. We apply a local projection method to a newly constructed “narrative” dataset of major regular job protection reforms covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. The analysis relies on country-sector-level data, using as an identifying assumption the fact that stringent dismissal regulations are more binding in sectors that are characterized by a higher “natural” propensity to regularly adjust their workforce. We find that the responses of sectoral employment to large job protection deregulation shocks depend crucially on the state of the economy at the time of reform——they are positive in an expansion, but become negative in a recession. These findings are consistent with theory, and are robust to a broad range of robustness checks including an Instrumental Variable approach using political economy drivers of reforms as instruments. Our results provide a case for undertaking job protection reform in good times, or for designing it in ways that enhance its short-term impact.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; EPL reform; differential employment effect; labour market; layoff rate; Structural Reforms; Labor Market; Deregulation; Employment Protection; Growth; Employment; severance pay; Business cycles; Labor market frictions; Southern Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies: Fiscal Costs, Gains, and Support
Angana Banerji
,
Mr. Valerio Crispolti
,
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Davide Furceri
,
Mr. Takuji Komatsuzaki
, and
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
Product and labor market reforms are needed to lift persistently sluggish growth in advanced economies. But reforms have progressed slowly because of concerns about their distributive and short-term economic effects. Our analysis, based on new empirical and numerical analysis and country case-studies shows that most labor and product market reforms can improve public debt dynamics over the medium-term. This because reforms raise output by boosting employment and/or labor productivity. But the effect of some labor market reforms on budgetary outcomes and fiscal sustainability depends critically on business cycle conditions. Our evidence also suggests that some temporary and well-designed up-front fiscal stimulus can help enhance the economic impact of reforms. In the past, countries have used fiscal incentives in the past to facilitate reforms by alleviating transition and social costs. But strong ownership of reforms was crucial for their successful implementation.
Keywords:
SDN; product market reform; Fiscal Policy; Structural Reforms; Public Debt; Labor Market; Product Market; Deregulation; Employment Protection; Unemployment Benefits; Labor Tax; Active Labor Market Policy; self-financing condition; financing burden; product market deregulation; Fiscal stimulus; Labor market reforms; Employment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
and
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
The age-distribution of Europe’s workforce has shifted towards older workers over the past few decades, a process expected to accelerate in the years ahead.. This paper studies the effect of the aging of the workforce on labor productivity, identifies the main transmission channels, and examines what policies might mitigate the effects of aging. We find that workforce aging reduces growth in labor productivity, mainly through its negative effect on TFP growth. Projected workforce aging could reduce TFP growth by an average of 0.2 percentage points every year over the next two decades. A variety of policies could ameliorate this effect.
Keywords:
WP; workforce; growth; Workforce Aging; Productivity; Policies; labor market; effect of workforce; workforce training; workforce skill; age group; aging workforce; workforce share; Aging; Total factor productivity; Labor force; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Youth Unemployment in Advanced Europe: Okun’s Law and Beyond
Angana Banerji
,
Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin
, and
Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs
The crisis has intensified what was previously a chronic unemployment problem in Europe; youth unemployment is now at unprecedented highs in some European countries. This paper assesses the main drivers of youth unemployment in Europe. It finds that much of the increase in youth unemployment rates during the crisis can be explained by output dynamics and the greater sensitivity of youth unemployment to economic activity than adult unemployment. Labor market institutions also play a significant role in explaining the persistently high levels of youth unemployment, especially the tax wedge, minimum wages relative to the median wage, spending on active labor market policies, the opportunity cost of working (measured by the unemployment benefits), vocational training, and labor market duality. This suggests that policies to address youth unemployment should be comprehensive and country-specific, focused on reviving growth and advancing labor market reforms.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; product market; Youth employment; youth unemployment; Okun’s law; labor market factors; labor market feature; labor market factor; labor market outcome; labor market duality; replacement ratio; youth employment condition; product market feature; labor market variable; documents labor market dynamics; paper documents labor market dynamics; replacement rate; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Unemployment; Employment; Output gap; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
Unemployment in Ireland: A Survey of Features and Causes
Julio A. Santaella
This paper examines the problem of unemployment in Ireland. A brief description of the main distinctive features of the structure of Irish unemployment is presented. Based on up to date literature, the possible causes behind unemployment are reviewed. Empirical studies that have quantified the contributions of different determinants to the increase in Irish unemployment are also surveyed. The paper concludes with some policy suggestions.
Keywords:
PDP; Ireland; wage; labor market; tax wedge; Ireland employment; Ireland unemployment; Ireland labor force determinant; unemployment problem; Ireland adjustment; Ireland structure; wage agreement; Ireland composition; Unemployment; Unemployment rate; Employment; Labor force; Labor markets; Europe