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Europe > Ireland

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Green Jobs and the Future of Work for Women and Men
The transition to a sustainable and green economy requires workers to move out of carbon-intensive jobs and workers to move into green jobs. The pace and effectiveness of the transition hinge not only on climate policies but also on the skills and adaptability of workers. Evidence suggests that economies with a robust supply of STEM-educated workers and a more equal treatment of women are better placed to transition faster and at a lower cost to a green economy, even after controlling for other country characteristics, because these economies generate more green innovation and face lower bottlenecks in expanding the green workforce. Altogether, climate policies, particularly energy taxes, in these economies are associated with emission reductions that are 2 to 4 percentage points larger than in economies with a less inclusive and educated workforce. While green jobs have been growing worldwide, men currently hold close to two-thirds of these positions and women only one-third. Green jobs are associated with a 7 percent premium for men and an even higher premium of 12 percent for women, suggesting that men’s and women’s labor supply may not meet demand. These findings highlight the critical need for educational and labor policies that promote skill enhancement and gender inclusivity, to ensure a sufficient supply of workers for the green economy and that all workers can benefit from the green transition. Finally, AI could be beneficial for workers in green jobs.
Keywords:
Labor Market Transition; Climate Change; Employment; Gender Equality; gender green employment gap decomposition; employment share; green wage premium; worker occupation; women employment; green jobs workers' characteristic; Gender inequality; Women; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Denmark: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the macroeconomic impact of the pharmaceutical sector. The analysis focuses on Novo Nordisk, the leading pharmaceutical company in Denmark, and its productivity impact on the rest of the economy. Empirical evidence suggests only weak correlations between productivity shocks at Novo Nordisk and overall economic growth, as well as between Novo Nordisk’s productivity and that of other firms. The findings suggest there is limited risk that Denmark’s booming pharmaceutical company would become its “Nokia.” Although the pharmaceutical sector will be a key driver of growth, most of its production occurs overseas under Danish ownership. As a result, its linkages with the rest of the domestic economy, in terms of employment and supply chains, are somewhat limited. The empirical results also indicate limited spillover effects through productivity channels. However, the empirical results may underestimate the influence of Novo Nordisk due to limited data.
Keywords:
mitigating factor; productivity shock; E. policy option; Policy consideration; shocks to Novo Nordisk; energy firm; covered bond bond market; Nonbank financial institutions; Labor productivity; Covered bonds; Systemic risk assessment; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that the euro area is recovering gradually, with a modest acceleration of growth projected for 2024, gathering further speed in 2025. Increasing real wages together with some drawdown of household savings are contributing to consumption, while the projected easing of financing conditions is supporting a recovery in investment. A modest pickup in growth is projected for 2024, strengthening further in 2025. This primarily reflects expected stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and higher investment supported by easing financing conditions. Inflation is projected to return to target in the second half of 2025. The economy is confronting important new challenges, layered on existing ones. Beyond returning inflation to target and ensuring credible fiscal consolidation in high-debt countries, the euro area must urgently focus on enhancing innovation and productivity. Higher growth is essential for creating policy space to tackle the fiscal challenges of aging, the green transition, energy security, and defense.
Keywords:
EU institution; EU industrial; headline inflation; EU climate; two-sided inflation risk; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an international perspective to the authorities’ two recent policy measures: setting up new savings and counter cyclical and climate infrastructure funds and reforming the judicial review of planning decisions in Ireland. The first essay presents international best practices in the design and operation of sovereign wealth funds that could inform the setup of the two new funds in Ireland. It highlights the importance of operating the funds within a strong fiscal policy framework. The second essay reviews Ireland’s planning and permitting system, underscoring the key elements that have hindered public investment. It also looks into the government’s proposed Bill to reform the planning system and contrasts its key features with those of other international jurisdictions. It finds that several issues may contribute to the inefficiencies in the planning and judicial review system, such as the loose standing requirements and lack of mandatory timelines related to judicial review, as well as institutional governance issues within the planning board, which the newly proposed reforms and legislative measures seek to address.
Keywords:
housing affordability; D. policy option; savings fund; modernizing judicial review; impulse response; Housing; Housing prices; Pension spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ireland’s economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of consecutive shocks. The Irish economy has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of recent consecutive shocks and is well-positioned to achieve a soft landing. Growth is expected to moderate to a still solid level in 2023-24, from a very high base, as tighter financial conditions, domestic capacity constraints, and weakening external demand weigh on the economy. Continued fiscal prudence is warranted to complement monetary tightening in sustaining disinflation and to build adequate buffers for the future. As fiscal policy should avoid adding to aggregate demand amid still elevated inflation, tax revenue over performance should be saved. The 2023 fiscal stance is appropriate. Fiscal policy should support growth-enhancing investment and broaden the tax base. The authorities’ decision to save part of excess corporate income tax revenues in two savings funds is welcome. Tighter financial conditions, persistent inflation, and rising vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate market with linkages to leveraged non-banks call for continued heightened vigilance of financial stability risks.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; inflation development; transparency policy; money market rate; quarterly balance of payments; growth-enhancing investment; Medium-term fiscal policy; persistent inflation; Ireland's economy; Housing; Inflation; Corporate income tax; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nordic-Baltic Regional Report: Technical Assistance Report-Nordic-Baltic Technical Assistance Project Financial Flows Analysis, AML/CFT Supervision, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
Keywords:
TF risk assessment; colleges participation; TF risk; EU Anti-Money Laundering Authority; supervisory cooperation; information Sharin; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Virtual currencies; Correspondent banking; Internal controls; Financial sector stability; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights quantitative tightening (QT) by the European Central Bank (ECB). It uses evidence from the literature on the impact of central bank bond purchases and sales on bond yields, and the monetary policy stance, to outline a roadmap for reducing the Euro system’s bond holdings. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The paper concludes that the ECB’s short term policy rates should be the main choice for adapting the monetary policy stance to changing circumstances and QT should proceed in a gradual, predictable manner as outlined by the ECB.
Keywords:
ECB Policy rate; ECB balance sheet; app portfolio; C. Policy consideration; bond supply net of ECB; Financial statements; Unconventional monetary policies; Central bank policy rate; Monetary stance; Securities
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Euro Area; IMF Country Report No. 23/264
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the euro area economy has shown remarkable resilience in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the largest terms of trade shock in several decades, thanks to a swift policy response and a strong rebound in contact-intensive services. Looking ahead, growth is expected to pick up gradually throughout 2023 and 2024, supported by a recovery in real incomes in the context of continued tight labor market conditions, a further easing of supply constraints, and firmer external demand, even as financial conditions continue to tighten. While headline inflation has fallen sharply recently after reaching record high levels, core inflation is proving more persistent. As tight financial conditions restrain demand and supply shocks dissipate further, inflation is set to decline further but is expected to remain elevated for an extended period. Renewed supply shocks, which could result from an escalation of the war in Ukraine and a related increase of commodity prices, or a further intensification of geoeconomic fragmentation, would also push up inflation and hurt growth. On the upside, the economy could again prove more resilient than expected, especially amid a still large stock of excess savings.
Keywords:
Euro area headline inflation; inflation expectation; EU climate investment fund; EU AML authority; EU institution; EU bank; core inflation; EU economy; Inflation; Energy prices; Fiscal stance; Monetary tightening; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from the UK
Giorgio Maarraoui
,
Walid Marrouch
,
Faten Saliba
, and
Ada Wossink
This paper uses life satisfaction data to help the design of climate mitigation policies in the United Kingdom. We assess the effects of the exposure to ambient pollutants on long-term life satisfaction and short-term mental health in the UK. We estimate augmented Cobb-Douglas utility functions using pooled and random effects ordinal logit models. Results show that increases in NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 significantly decrease the odds of longterm happiness and short-term mental health in the UK. The willingness to pay for clean air is also significant and increases with level of education. These measurements derived can be used as benchmarks for pollution abatement subsidies or pollution taxes and can help in projecting a more comprehensive assessment of costs and benefits.
Keywords:
Air Pollution; Happiness; Policy Valuation; Climate Change; Environmental Policies; Pollution Taxes; Pollution Abatement Subsidies; life satisfaction data; dataset description; air pollutant; pollutants' correlation; household data; ordinal Logit; Income; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Elizabeth M. Mahoney
, and
Cristian Badarinza
During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.
Keywords:
Non-residential Real Estate; Financial Conditions; Liquidity; Big Data; level data; CRE price; household indebtedness; CRE market; CRE transaction; COVID-19; Real estate prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Middle East and Central Asia