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Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Sheheryar Malik
, and
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Ireland regarding the financial safety net, bank resolution, and crisis management. The introduction of the “single rulebook” for financial services regulation within the European Union and the establishment of the banking union have transformed the Irish framework for dealing with failing banks. The new regime reflects an EU-wide initiative to strengthen supervision, harmonize prudential rules, and establish a uniform bank resolution regime. The Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive has significantly strengthened the resolution regime in Ireland and the European Union. Significant progress has also been made on the banking union, although key aspects remain to be completed.
International Monetary Fund
This technical note focuses on selected issues on the credit union (CU) sector in the Czech Republic. The business models of CUs in the Czech Republic are fundamentally different from traditional CUs that are typically non-for-profit cooperatives operated for the benefit of a defined set of members. The paper highlights that there is a need to restructure the CU sector, aimed at striking a delicate balance between minimizing financial and supervisory risks arising from the sector while recognizing the social role of prudently managed CUs.
International Monetary Fund
The Irish authorities are adopting consolidation measures to meet the original fiscal targets as well as implementing structural reforms in the labor market and sheltered sectors to enhance competitiveness. Strengthened euro area support for Ireland’s growth and debt sustainability would greatly reinforce prospects for Ireland to regain market access at an early stage given more adverse circumstances. Reports suggest that investors are differentiating Ireland based on its policy implementation track record and growth prospects. Vulnerabilities persist, however, as international demand for Irish bonds is sensitive to developments in the euro area.
Bertrand Candelon
,
Mr. Amadou N Sy
, and
Mr. Rabah Arezki
This paper examines the spillover effects of sovereign rating news on European financial markets during the period 2007-2010. Our main finding is that sovereign rating downgrades have statistically and economically significant spillover effects both across countries and financial markets. The sign and magnitude of the spillover effects depend both on the type of announcements, the source country experiencing the downgrade and the rating agency from which the announcements originates. However, we also find evidence that downgrades to near speculative grade ratings for relatively large economies such as Greece have a systematic spillover effects across Euro zone countries. Rating-based triggers used in banking regulation, CDS contracts, and investment mandates may help explain these results.
Mr. Alessandro Prati
and
Francesco Drudi
This paper proposes a signaling model that offers a new perspective on why governments deviate from optimal tax smoothing and delay debt stabilization. In our model, dependable—but not fully credible—governments have an incentive to tighten the fiscal regime when the signaling effect on credit ratings is larger (that is, when a sufficiently large stock of debt has been accumulated). At this point, they may deviate from tax smoothing not to be mimicked by weak governments. The model predicts that primary balances and debt stocks are complementary inputs in the credit rating function as tests on Italian, Irish, Belgian, and Danish data show.