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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?
Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu
,
Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
, and
Mr. Pau Rabanal
Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries’ external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and emerging economies and new database on the IIP’s currency composition, we find that the size and structure of external liabilities and assets, especially with regards to currency denomination, matter in understanding balance-of-payments pressures. Specifically, and beyond the standard macroeconomic factors highlighted in other studies, higher levels of gross external debt increase the likelihood of an external crisis, while higher levels of foreign-currency-denominated external debt increase the likelihood of sudden stops. Foreign reserve assets play a mitigating role, although with diminishing returns, and the combination of flow and stock imbalances amplifies external risks, especially during periods of heightened global risk aversion. The results are especially strong for emerging economies, where the impact of flow and stock imbalances and foreign currency mismatches are larger and more robust across specifications.
Keywords:
international investment positions; current account; foreign reserves; sudden stops with large output loss; external crises.; WP; debt liability; foreign currency; debt liabilities increase; liability position; debt assets
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2018 and FY 2019-20
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The Fund’s total net income for FY 2018 is projected at about SDR 0.7 billion, broadly in line with the April 2017 estimate. The projections for total lending income are broadly unchanged. Most sources of lending income are lower, reflecting a lower level of credit outstanding as a result of advance repurchases and delayed disbursements. However, projected commitment fee income is higher following the early cancellation of a large FCL arrangement in November 2017. The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 0.7 billion for FY 2018 (excluding projected income of the gold sales profits-funded Endowment Subaccount) be placed to the special and general reserve. After the placement of GRA FY 2018 net income to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 17.4 billion at the end of FY 2018. The paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase in the Fund’s reserves from the GRA to the Investment Account. The paper also revisits options for the allocation of net income between the special and general reserve, and proposes that net income be allocated equally between the special and general reserve. In line with the recent Board discussion of a framework for guiding future payouts from the Endowment Subaccount, the paper presents a detailed proposal, which includes delaying payouts for three years to protect the real value of the Endowment. The paper also recommends that the margin for the rate of charge for the period FY 2019–2020 be kept unchanged at 100 basis points. The margin will again be set under the exceptional circumstances clause, as non-lending income continues to be constrained by the low interest rate environment and lending income will be used to finance a portion of the Fund’s non-lending activities. The projections for FY 2019 and FY 2020 point to a net income position of SDR 0.4 billion and SDR 1 billion, respectively. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions.
Keywords:
PP; SDR; income; net income; Endowment subaccount; investment income; surcharge income; outlook factor; income loss; operating income; intermediation cost; expected return; IA income; income shortfall; income review; fund staff calculation; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserves accumulation; Credit; Reserve assets; Global; review of the fund's income position
Cover Policy Papers
The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework
International Monetary Fund
The medium-term income projections have been updated since the last estimate provided to the Executive Board in April 2014. The main changes to the outlook stem from a lower path for credit outstanding and expectations for a more gradual rise in interest rates. The revised projections show lower levels of net operational income over the coming years. Lending income is lower compared with earlier estimates as a result of lower credit levels, including the advance repurchases by Ireland and Portugal. Non-lending income is also projected to be lower reflecting a further downward shift in SDR interest rates and, thus, returns on investments and interest-free resources. The updated expenditure path assumes the net administrative budget remains constant in real terms at the FY 2012 level. The long-run projections indicate a broad balance between income and expenditures, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.5 percent and with lending returning to pre-crisis levels. The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to slow, reflecting the decline in Fund credit, and precautionary balances are now projected to remain slightly below the projected target of SDR 20 billion over the medium term compared with the earlier estimates.
Keywords:
PP; income; fy; net; yield; income projection; expenditure position; gold profits; consolidated income; fund's income position; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserve positions; Credit; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2015 and FY 2016
International Monetary Fund
FY 2015 net income is now projected at SDR 1.5 billion. Lending continues to be the main source of income, although advance repurchases have lowered projected lending income in FY 2015 by SDR 0.3 billion. Investment income remains constrained in the low interest environment but the returns were somewhat stronger than projected. A revaluation of pension obligations, required under accounting standard IAS 19 and stemming from a further fall in the discount rate, is projected to entail an adjustment to FY 2015 net income of about SDR 0.8 billion. The paper proposes that GRA net income of SDR 1.3 billion, which excludes the retained earnings of the gold endowment, be placed to the special reserve.* After the placement to reserves, precautionary balances are projected at SDR 14.0 billion at the end of FY 2015. The paper further proposes to retain currencies available for transfer to the Investment Account in the GRA, pending completion later this year of the Board’s review of the mandate for the Fixed-Income Subaccount.
Keywords:
PP; SDR; net income of SDR; income; SDR billion; intermediation cost; staff calculation; GRA net income; meeting FY; fund's Income position; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserves accumulation; Financial statements; Discount rates; Global
Cover Los regímenes de tipo de cambio y la estabilidad del sistema monetario internacional
Los regímenes de tipo de cambio y la estabilidad del sistema monetario internacional
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
, and
Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides

Abstract

Los países miembros del Fondo Monetario Internacional colaboran para asegurar que los regímenes cambiarios funcionen ordenadamente y para fomentar la estabilidad del sistema cambiario, reconociendo que el objetivo fundamental del sistema monetario internacional es facilitar el intercambio de bienes, servicios y capital y sostener un crecimiento económico sólido. Este trabajo examina la estabilidad del sistema cambiario en su globalidad mediante el análisis de los resultados macroeconómicos (inflación, crecimiento, crisis) en el marco de distintos regímenes cambiarios, los efectos del régimen cambiario elegido en el resto del sistema (ajuste externo, integración comercial, flujos de capital) y las posibles fuentes de tensión para el sistema monetario internacional.

Keywords:
OP; regime; country; IMF staff estimate; EME; exchange rate
Cover Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System
Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
, and
Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides

Abstract

The member countries of the International Monetary Fund collaborate to try to assure orderly exchange arrangements and promote a stable system of exchange rates, recognizing that the essential purpose of the international monetary system is to facilitate the exchange of goods, services, and capital, and to sustain sound economic growth. The paper reviews the stability of the overall system of exchange rates by examining macroeconomic performance (inflation, growth, crises) under alternative exchange rate regimes; implications of exchange rate regime choice for interaction with the rest of the system (external adjustment, trade integration, capital flows); and potential sources of stress to the international monetary system.

Keywords:
OP; regime; country; IMF staff estimate; EME; exchange rate; reserve currency status; inflation benefit; regime case; EMES' incentive; country's interaction; Exchange rate arrangements; Floating exchange rates; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Inflation; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
Keywords:
SP; default episode; home terms of trade; terms-of-trade shock; terms-of-trade response; productivity gain; debt projection; Monetary unions; Total factor productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Trade credits; Stock markets; Africa; Global; Caribbean; Baltics; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: 2009 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund
Following years as a star performer, Ireland is undergoing a painful adjustment as critical internal imbalances unwind. This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the banking system of Ireland is under considerable stress as asset quality has deteriorated and the global financial crisis has tightened access to wholesale funding. Executive Directors have welcomed the actions taken to safeguard financial stability, backed by ready access to European Central Bank financing. Directors have also supported the authorities’ efforts to restructure the financial sector, including the decision to establish the National Asset Management Agency.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; holding; GDP; deficit; holdings exchange rate; balance of payments data; unit wage; property bubble; potential GDP; authorities' effort; exchange rate; quarterly balance of payments data; private sector; Credit; Wages; Global
Cover Sovereign Assets and Liabilities Management
Sovereign Assets and Liabilities Management

Abstract

This volume, edited by David Folkerts-Landau and Marcel Cassard, consists of papers presented at a conference held in Hong Kong SAR that was hosted by the IMF and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. It focuses on a wide range of issues confronting policymakers in managing their sovereign assets and liabilities in a world of mobile capital and integrated capital markets. Topics include public debt management strategy, central bank reserves management, technical and quantitive aspects of risk management, and credit costs and borrowing capacity in optimizing debt management. The papers draw on experiences of policymakers and private sector participants actively involved in formulating and implementing debt and reserves policy.

Keywords:
BOOK; debt; portfolio; cost; market; risk; foreign currency; benchmark portfolio; debt portfolio; debt management policy; currency composition; Government debt management; Currencies; Foreign currency debt; International reserves; Global; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Australia and New Zealand; Europe; North America; reserves manager; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Market Pressures and Speculative Capital Flows in Selected European Countries
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu
and
Ms. Inci Ötker
This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in an attempt to identify the roles of macroeconomic fundamentals and speculative market pressures in the recent crisis, as well as earlier devaluations in adjustable fixed exchange rate systems in the European currency markets. For a sample of five countries, including Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Norway, and Sweden, our empirical analyses show that both economic fundamentals and speculative factors have a significant influence on the probability of devaluations. The recent experience in the European foreign exchange markets suggests that the latest realignments are mainly the result of foreign exchange market tensions amidst the growing conflict between the needs of the domestic economies and the policies needed to maintain fixed exchange rates. Our results confirm that regardless of the source of the deterioration in economic conditions, market participants perceived the existing parities of the currencies in these five countries as inconsistent with their underlying economic fundamentals, thus effectively bringing about either a realignment or a modification of the exchange arrangement.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; interest rate; Swedish krona; devaluation probability; crisis model; price level; Norwegian krone; Italian lira; deutsche mark; adjustable peg; currency float; ERM currency; basket index; shadow exchange rate; Currencies; Currency markets; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rates; Conventional peg; Europe