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Europe > Ireland

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Cover Policy Papers
Initial Considerations For The Review Of Charges And The Surcharge Policy
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
Keywords:
General Resources Account; Charges; Margin for the basic rate of charge; Surcharges; Commitment Fees; Precautionary Balances; Income; multilayered framework; fund arrangement; surcharge rate; intermediation cost; fund's liquidity; borrowing cost; Credit; SDR interest rate; Balance of payments need; Credit risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights quantitative tightening (QT) by the European Central Bank (ECB). It uses evidence from the literature on the impact of central bank bond purchases and sales on bond yields, and the monetary policy stance, to outline a roadmap for reducing the Euro system’s bond holdings. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The paper concludes that the ECB’s short term policy rates should be the main choice for adapting the monetary policy stance to changing circumstances and QT should proceed in a gradual, predictable manner as outlined by the ECB.
Keywords:
ECB Policy rate; ECB balance sheet; app portfolio; C. Policy consideration; bond supply net of ECB; Financial statements; Unconventional monetary policies; Central bank policy rate; Monetary stance; Securities
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound
Adalgiso Amendola
,
Mario di Serio
,
Matteo Fragetta
, and
Mr. Giovanni Melina
We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information.
Keywords:
WP; government spending multiplier; shadow rate; Fiscal multiplier; Zero lower bound; Panel VAR; Factor models; Euro Area; government spending shock; multiplier policymaker; cumulated multiplier; one-year multiplier; ELB regime; potential GDP; Interest rate floor; Business cycles; Central bank policy rate; Fiscal multipliers; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis
Carolina Correa-Caro
,
Leandro Medina
,
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
, and
Mr. Bennett W Sutton
Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter’s Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structural deficit) interacted with sectoral business cycle sensitivity affected corporate profitability during the recovery period of the global financial crisis (GFC). Using cross-sectional analyses, our findings indicate that corporate profitability improved significantly after the GFC fiscal stimulus, especially in manufacturing, utilities and retail sectors. Firm size and leverage are also found to be significant in explaining changes in corporate profitability.
Keywords:
WP; market firm; potential GDP; firm indebtedness; government spending; total assets; Fiscal Stimulus; Global Financial Crisis; Worldscope; Firm Profitability; firm level; working capital; financial statement variable; firms' profitability; earnings before interest; taxes; depreciation; and amortization; firms sales; debt ratio; Central bank policy rate; Business cycles; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2018 and FY 2019-20
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The Fund’s total net income for FY 2018 is projected at about SDR 0.7 billion, broadly in line with the April 2017 estimate. The projections for total lending income are broadly unchanged. Most sources of lending income are lower, reflecting a lower level of credit outstanding as a result of advance repurchases and delayed disbursements. However, projected commitment fee income is higher following the early cancellation of a large FCL arrangement in November 2017. The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 0.7 billion for FY 2018 (excluding projected income of the gold sales profits-funded Endowment Subaccount) be placed to the special and general reserve. After the placement of GRA FY 2018 net income to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 17.4 billion at the end of FY 2018. The paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase in the Fund’s reserves from the GRA to the Investment Account. The paper also revisits options for the allocation of net income between the special and general reserve, and proposes that net income be allocated equally between the special and general reserve. In line with the recent Board discussion of a framework for guiding future payouts from the Endowment Subaccount, the paper presents a detailed proposal, which includes delaying payouts for three years to protect the real value of the Endowment. The paper also recommends that the margin for the rate of charge for the period FY 2019–2020 be kept unchanged at 100 basis points. The margin will again be set under the exceptional circumstances clause, as non-lending income continues to be constrained by the low interest rate environment and lending income will be used to finance a portion of the Fund’s non-lending activities. The projections for FY 2019 and FY 2020 point to a net income position of SDR 0.4 billion and SDR 1 billion, respectively. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions.
Keywords:
PP; SDR; income; net income; Endowment subaccount; investment income; surcharge income; outlook factor; income loss; operating income; intermediation cost; expected return; IA income; income shortfall; income review; fund staff calculation; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserves accumulation; Credit; Reserve assets; Global; review of the fund's income position
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Sheheryar Malik
, and
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.
Keywords:
WP; market access; LMA episode; LMA indicator; debt market; LMA risk; Sovereign Debt Restructuring; Default; Bond Spreads; LMA variable; LMA event; Debt sustainability; Credit ratings; Yield curve; Bonds; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework
International Monetary Fund
The medium-term income projections have been updated since the last estimate provided to the Executive Board in April 2014. The main changes to the outlook stem from a lower path for credit outstanding and expectations for a more gradual rise in interest rates. The revised projections show lower levels of net operational income over the coming years. Lending income is lower compared with earlier estimates as a result of lower credit levels, including the advance repurchases by Ireland and Portugal. Non-lending income is also projected to be lower reflecting a further downward shift in SDR interest rates and, thus, returns on investments and interest-free resources. The updated expenditure path assumes the net administrative budget remains constant in real terms at the FY 2012 level. The long-run projections indicate a broad balance between income and expenditures, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.5 percent and with lending returning to pre-crisis levels. The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to slow, reflecting the decline in Fund credit, and precautionary balances are now projected to remain slightly below the projected target of SDR 20 billion over the medium term compared with the earlier estimates.
Keywords:
PP; income; fy; net; yield; income projection; expenditure position; gold profits; consolidated income; fund's income position; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserve positions; Credit; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2015 and FY 2016
International Monetary Fund
FY 2015 net income is now projected at SDR 1.5 billion. Lending continues to be the main source of income, although advance repurchases have lowered projected lending income in FY 2015 by SDR 0.3 billion. Investment income remains constrained in the low interest environment but the returns were somewhat stronger than projected. A revaluation of pension obligations, required under accounting standard IAS 19 and stemming from a further fall in the discount rate, is projected to entail an adjustment to FY 2015 net income of about SDR 0.8 billion. The paper proposes that GRA net income of SDR 1.3 billion, which excludes the retained earnings of the gold endowment, be placed to the special reserve.* After the placement to reserves, precautionary balances are projected at SDR 14.0 billion at the end of FY 2015. The paper further proposes to retain currencies available for transfer to the Investment Account in the GRA, pending completion later this year of the Board’s review of the mandate for the Fixed-Income Subaccount.
Keywords:
PP; SDR; net income of SDR; income; SDR billion; intermediation cost; staff calculation; GRA net income; meeting FY; fund's Income position; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserves accumulation; Financial statements; Discount rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ireland enjoyed strong growth in 2014, at about 5 percent year over year, led by exports and investment. Solid job creation has brought the unemployment rate down to 10.5 percent, from a peak of 15 percent three years ago. These positive economic developments drove higher than expected growth in revenues, helping bring the fiscal deficit down to an estimated 3.9 percent of GDP in 2014 despite some spending overruns. Looking to 2015, Ireland’s growth is expected to remain robust, at about 3.5 percent, bolstered by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing. Consumption is beginning to support activity, aided by the impact of falling energy prices on real incomes.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank bond bond yield; market; benchmark bond; revenue gain; benchmark; financial market condition; government benchmark; Mortgages; Credit; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Europe; article IV of the IMF's article; staff supplement
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investment in the Euro Area: Why Has It Been Weak?
Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu
,
Pelin Berkmen
,
Pavel Lukyantsau
,
Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs
, and
Hanni Schoelermann
Investment across the euro area remains below its pre-crisis level. Its performance has been weaker than in most previous recessions and financial crises. This paper shows that a part of this weakness can be explained by output dynamics, particularly before the European sovereign debt crisis. The rest is explained by a high cost of capital, financial constraints, corporate leverage, and uncertainty. There is a considerable cross country heterogeneity in terms of both investment dymanics and its determinants. Based on the findings of this paper, investment is expected to pick up as the recovery strengthens and uncertainty declines, but persistent financial fragmentation and high corporate leverage in some countries will likely continue to weigh on investment.
Keywords:
WP; investment; cash flow; investment dynamics; cost of capital; credit rationing; aggregate investment equation; area investment; investment model; investment performance; investment pattern; performance in Europe; equipment investment; investment equation; Stocks; Neoclassical theory; Currencies; Yield curve; Europe