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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper highlights that the Irish financial system has grown rapidly and in complexity, especially after Brexit, and Ireland has become a European base for large financial groups. Risks to financial stability emanate from a much larger and more complex financial system, persistent legacy issues, as well as emergent ones from non-bank lending, Fintech, and climate change. Stress tests confirmed banks’ resilience to severe macrofinancial shocks, with some caveats. While broadly adequate, supervisory resources and capacity need to keep pace with a growing and more complex sector with significant cross-border linkages. Efforts are needed to further strengthen supervision of banks’ credit risk and develop capacity and skills on new areas such as climate, non-bank lending, and Fintech. Insurance oversight should prioritize intra-group complexities. Resolution and crisis management can be enhanced through greater planning and collaboration between the Central Bank and the Department of Finance to bolster the ability to deal effectively with institution failures and systemic crises.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
The recent crises highlighted the role of cross-border banking linkages. This paper proposes two new measures for better capturing creditor banking systems’ foreign credit exposures and borrower countries’ reliance on foreign bank credit, by combining BIS data with bank-level data. The results indicate that the proposed refinements matter, especially when foreign bank affiliates’ funding relies heavily on local deposits. In addition, after developing novel and necessary break-in-series and exchange rate variation adjustments, estimations looking at the driving factors of both measures during 2006-2012 highlight: (i) the role of systemic banking crises and global financial conditions in the evolution of banks’ foreign credit exposures; (ii) the role of a larger set of factors in the case of the evolution of borrower countries’ reliance on foreign bank credit—how countries borrowed, from whom they borrowed, and global financial and domestic demand conditions.
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
and
Mr. Takahiro Tsuda
Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA).  It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.
Mr. Stijn Claessens
,
Mr. Hui Tong
, and
Mr. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas
This paper analyzes through what channels the euro crisis has affected firm valuations globally. It examines stock price responses over the past year for 3045 non-financial firms in 16 countries to three key crisis events. Using pre-crisis benchmarks, it separates effects arising from changes in external financing and trade conditions and examines how bank and trade linkages propagated effects across borders. It finds that policy measures announced impacted financially-constrained firms more, particularly in creditor countries with greater bank exposure to peripheral euro countries. Trade linkages with peripheral countries also played a role, with euro exchange rate movements causing differential effects.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
The euro area (EA) plays a major role in the global economy. Market perceptions of events in the EA program countries illustrate the possibility of large spillovers from the area in times of stress. The prospect of large spillovers underscores the urgent need for actions to contain, and eventually overcome, the ongoing crisis. The planned fiscal consolidation in the EA could benefit the rest of the world. Spillovers from gradual monetary policy normalization appear manageable. Execution of the structural reform agenda will carry positive spillovers.
International Monetary Fund
Recent events make clear that the global economy remains vulnerable, and that important work remains to be done to secure the recovery and prevent future crises. We must adapt to new challenges and ensure that the institution is equipped with the right tools to assess pressing risks to global stability and, when crisis prevention efforts are not enough, with the right instruments to restore confidence.