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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

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  • Balance of trade x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
and
Jesse Siminitz
We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy’s long-term growth potential.
Keywords:
trade tensions; uncertainty; trade openness; investment; euro area; trade uncertainty; uncertainty shock; area trade flow; trade growth; trade openness variable; tension indicator; trade measure; trade tension level; uncertainty variable; Trade policy; Trade balance; Protectionism; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Devaluation in a Monetary Union
Philipp Engler
,
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli
,
Juha Tervala
, and
Simon Voigts
Using a DSGE model calibrated to the euro area, we analyze the international effects of a fiscal devaluation (FD) implemented as a revenue-neutral shift from employer's social contributions to the Value Added Tax. We find that a FD in ‘Southern European countries’ has a strong positive effect on output, but mild effects on the trade balance and the real exchange rate. Since the benefits of a FD are small relative to the divergence in competitiveness, it is best addressed through structural reforms.
Keywords:
WP; Southern European countries; expenditure switching; Fiscal devaluation; fiscal policy; euro area; currency union; current account; output effect; Southern European countries of the Southern European countries; trade balance effect; open economy; expenditure switching effect; households in Southern European countries; imperfect competition; fiscal devaluation in Southern European countries; deficit in Southern European countries; devaluation in Southern European countries; Value-added tax; Trade balance; Consumption; Personal income tax; Southern Europe
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
Research Bulletin, June 2014
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; bulletin; journal website; policy relevance; author guideline; debt challenge; sample content; Current account deficits; Trade balance; Income inequality; Current account; Personal income; Global; Caribbean; Baltics; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-Country Experience in Reducing Net Foreign Liabilities: Lessons for New Zealand
Ding Ding
,
Mr. Werner Schule
, and
Ms. Yan M Sun
This paper studies the dynamics of net foreign liabilities across a number of countries. Our historical analysis suggests that an orderly reduction in a country’s net foreign liabilities has mostly occurred when there was significant improvement in gross public savings through deliberate fiscal consolidation measures. Simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for New Zealand indicates that sustained government deficit reduction could improve the country’s net foreign assets by about half of the accumulated public savings. However, given New Zealand’s relatively strong fiscal positions and previous work noting structurally low household savings, an orderly improvement in New Zealand’s external position in the medium term will depend on a structural improvement in private savings.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; crisis; private sector; Net foreign liabilities; Current account balance; Public savings; Fiscal consolidation; crisis risk; exchange rate; crisis database; gross private sector debt; inflation crisis; reductions in NFL; New Zealand's NFL; Foreign liabilities; Foreign assets; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics: Many Paths to the Same Endpoint
Mr. Joong S Kang
and
Mr. Jay C Shambaugh
Explanations of the large current account deficits for the euro area periphery and the Baltics in the run up to the crisis revolve around two main factors: deteriorating export performance or demand driven booms. We add that there were important movements in transfers and net income balances. While export performance remained relatively stable in most countries, for some countries, when transfers declined, households and firms borrowed so as to maintain the same level of spending. This was part of a persistent failure to adjust to trade deficits, which, along with rising net income payments, led to growing current account deficits. All of these factors played varying roles in the development of current account deficits across these countries.
Keywords:
WP; export; deficit; IMF staff calculation; current account deficit; transfer; income balance; competitiveness; domestic boom; merchandise export market share; Merchandise export market share; current account improvement; import volume growth; export sector performance; export decline; estimate export performance; export market share; export volume; current account development; current account movement; Current account deficits; Current account; Trade balance; Exports; Export performance; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU
Mr. Hamid Faruqee
This paper examines the impact of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on trade within the euro area. Using panel data for 22 industrial countries, the analysis estimates the effect of the euro's arrival on area-wide trade compared to bilateral trade flows between other industrial countries. Controlling for other influences according to the "gravity" model of trade, the panel analysis employs cointegration techniques to obtain reliable point estimates of EMU trade effects. Cross-country differences with respect to EMU trade gains and underlying factors accounting for these differences are also further explored.
Keywords:
WP; trade; monetary union; trade gain; EMU trade effect; Currency unions; gravity model; bilateral trade; EMU trade impact; -area trade; EMU membership; industry trade share; aggregate EMU variable; Monetary unions; Trade balance; Currencies; Labor unions; Exchange rates; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper presents international evidence on the determinants of trade dynamics. It provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. A comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries.
Keywords:
SP; reform programs in Asia; transition to a market economy; agriculture in Pakistan; taxing agriculture in Pakistan; costs of the economic crisis; market economy; trade bloc; Futures markets; Trade balance; Futures; Subnational tax; Exports; Global; North America; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; West Africa; Baltics; Caribbean; trading bloc member
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics
Mr. Eswar S Prasad
and
Mr. Jeffery A. Gable
This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants are presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.
Keywords:
WP; trade; supply shock; trade variable; Trade balance; business cycles; exchange rates; OECD industrial economies; trade ratio; business cycle recovery; net trade balance; exchange rate depreciation; demand condition; merchandise trade number; trade volume; trade dynamics; trade balance fluctuation; trade-weighted average; trade balance to output growth; Exports; Real exchange rates; Global