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Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson
This paper develops a small open economy model where global and domestic liquidity is intermediated to the corporate sector through two financial processes. Investment banks intermediate cross-border credit through interlinked debt contracts to entrepreneurs and commercial banks intermediate domestic savings to liquidity constrained final good producers. Both processes are needed to facilitate development of key production inputs. The model captures procyclical investment bank leverage dynamics, global liquidity spillovers, domestic money market pressures, and macrofinancial linkages through which shocks propagate across the two processes, affecting spreads and balance sheets, as well as the real economy through investment and working capital channels.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom finds that the main factors behind the slowdown include weak productivity growth, labor market slack, and low inflation. Recent labor market developments in the United Kingdom appear to point to disconnect between unemployment and wages. Although the unemployment rate has fallen to a 40-year low, wage growth continues to growth at a subdued pace. The analysis in this paper suggests that this puzzle is explained by persistent weak productivity growth and well-anchored inflation expectations, as well as by greater effective labor market slack than suggested by the headline unemployment rate. Broader measures of underemployment—accounting for involuntary part-time unemployment, inactive and self-employed people seeking regular jobs—suggest that slack in the labor market was higher than implied by the unemployment rate in recent years. Persistent tightness of the labor market should prompt some firming of wage growth in the coming year, everything else equal. A mild increase in unit labor costs would help bring domestically generated inflation in line with the inflation target.
Mr. Magnus Saxegaard
,
Rahul Anand
, and
Mr. Shanaka J Peiris
This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with macrofinancial linkages. The model includes a financial accelerator--entrepreneurs are assumed to partially finance investment using domestic and foreign currency debt--to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to estimate the model using India data. The model is used to assess the importance of the financial accelerator in India and the optimality of monetary policy.