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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 21 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Denmark: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the macroeconomic impact of the pharmaceutical sector. The analysis focuses on Novo Nordisk, the leading pharmaceutical company in Denmark, and its productivity impact on the rest of the economy. Empirical evidence suggests only weak correlations between productivity shocks at Novo Nordisk and overall economic growth, as well as between Novo Nordisk’s productivity and that of other firms. The findings suggest there is limited risk that Denmark’s booming pharmaceutical company would become its “Nokia.” Although the pharmaceutical sector will be a key driver of growth, most of its production occurs overseas under Danish ownership. As a result, its linkages with the rest of the domestic economy, in terms of employment and supply chains, are somewhat limited. The empirical results also indicate limited spillover effects through productivity channels. However, the empirical results may underestimate the influence of Novo Nordisk due to limited data.
Keywords:
mitigating factor; productivity shock; E. policy option; Policy consideration; shocks to Novo Nordisk; energy firm; covered bond bond market; Nonbank financial institutions; Labor productivity; Covered bonds; Systemic risk assessment; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that the euro area is recovering gradually, with a modest acceleration of growth projected for 2024, gathering further speed in 2025. Increasing real wages together with some drawdown of household savings are contributing to consumption, while the projected easing of financing conditions is supporting a recovery in investment. A modest pickup in growth is projected for 2024, strengthening further in 2025. This primarily reflects expected stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and higher investment supported by easing financing conditions. Inflation is projected to return to target in the second half of 2025. The economy is confronting important new challenges, layered on existing ones. Beyond returning inflation to target and ensuring credible fiscal consolidation in high-debt countries, the euro area must urgently focus on enhancing innovation and productivity. Higher growth is essential for creating policy space to tackle the fiscal challenges of aging, the green transition, energy security, and defense.
Keywords:
EU institution; EU industrial; headline inflation; EU climate; two-sided inflation risk; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom finds that the main factors behind the slowdown include weak productivity growth, labor market slack, and low inflation. Recent labor market developments in the United Kingdom appear to point to disconnect between unemployment and wages. Although the unemployment rate has fallen to a 40-year low, wage growth continues to growth at a subdued pace. The analysis in this paper suggests that this puzzle is explained by persistent weak productivity growth and well-anchored inflation expectations, as well as by greater effective labor market slack than suggested by the headline unemployment rate. Broader measures of underemployment—accounting for involuntary part-time unemployment, inactive and self-employed people seeking regular jobs—suggest that slack in the labor market was higher than implied by the unemployment rate in recent years. Persistent tightness of the labor market should prompt some firming of wage growth in the coming year, everything else equal. A mild increase in unit labor costs would help bring domestically generated inflation in line with the inflation target.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; wage; productivity growth; labor market; wage pressure; labor market condition; wage dynamics; frontier firm; labor market slack; Wages; Labor markets; Productivity; Unemployment rate; Self-employment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
and
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
The age-distribution of Europe’s workforce has shifted towards older workers over the past few decades, a process expected to accelerate in the years ahead.. This paper studies the effect of the aging of the workforce on labor productivity, identifies the main transmission channels, and examines what policies might mitigate the effects of aging. We find that workforce aging reduces growth in labor productivity, mainly through its negative effect on TFP growth. Projected workforce aging could reduce TFP growth by an average of 0.2 percentage points every year over the next two decades. A variety of policies could ameliorate this effect.
Keywords:
WP; workforce; growth; Workforce Aging; Productivity; Policies; labor market; effect of workforce; workforce training; workforce skill; age group; aging workforce; workforce share; Aging; Total factor productivity; Labor force; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews public expenditure efficiency in Ireland. Evidence suggests that while Ireland is a low spending country, it achieves a generally efficient use of public funds, with some key differences across sectors. Although the overall space for budgetary savings appears limited, further spending efficiency could help contain cost pressures coming from the demographic challenge of an aging population and improve the quality of public services. It could also help rechannel spending toward more productive uses, for instance by increasing public investment relative to current expenditure, and support the competitive position of the Irish economy and its growth potential.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; bank; TFP growth; Ireland; frontier firm; firm size; interest cover ratio; firms' TFP; CRE price; determinants of TFP; financial distress; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Global; Europe; C. public expenditure efficiency; Benchmarking expenditure; supervisory response; core infrastructure quality outcome; Health care spending
Cover Policy Papers
Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board - Executive Board Meeting - November 16, 2016
International Monetary Fund
This Work Program (WP) translates the policy priorities and strategic directions laid out in the Fall 2016 Global Policy Agenda (GPA) and the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Communiqué into an Executive Board agenda for the next six-twelve months. The Managing Director’s GPA called on members to use a balanced mix of all policy tools to revive demand and raise productivity, and ensure that gains from technology and globalization are shared more broadly. The GPA also warned against retreating from multilateralism at a time when cooperation and coordination are critical. It outlined how the Fund would support the membership by helping policymakers identify policy space and enhance resilience; assisting in understanding and tackling the underlying causes of low productivity growth; supporting members to expand economic opportunities—including by ensuring adequate and effective safety nets; and advocating for multilateralism that works for all. Where the work extends beyond traditional areas, the WP will focus on issues with a macro-economic impact that are systemically important or relevant for many and amenable to change through economic policies.
Keywords:
PP; fund; policy; policy priority; tailored policy advice; fund program; fund agenda; Policy space; MCP Policy; fund work; income position; Financial safety nets; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization
Mr. JaeBin Ahn
,
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Bingjie Hu
, and
Lamin Njie
This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country-industry level for a broad range of countries over the past two decades. We then explore both the direct effect of liberalization in the sector considered, as well as its indirect impact in downstream industries via input linkages. Our findings point to a dominant role of the indirect input market channel in fostering productivity gains. A 1 percentage point decline in input tariffs is estimated to increase total factor productivity by about 2 percent in the sector considered. For advanced economies, the implied potential productivity gains from fully eliminating remaining tariffs are estimated at around 1 percent, on average, which do not factor in the presumably larger gains from removing existing non-tariff barriers. Finally, we find strong evidence of complementarities between trade and FDI liberalization in boosting productivity. This calls for a broad liberalization agenda that cuts across different areas.
Keywords:
WP; input tariff; output tariff; tariff data; Trade; Productivity; Tariffs; Inputs; Liberalization; FDI; Reforms; Growth; tariff rate; complementarity regression; tariff liberalization; Total factor productivity; Foreign direct investment; Trade liberalization; Global; research department; fiscal affair; productivity gains from trade liberalization
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; stamp duty; firm; foreign direct investment; stamp duty land tax; receipts increase; property tax system; resource misallocation; income balance; property tax tax revenue; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Transaction tax; Property tax; Capital productivity; Global; Southern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Progress Towards External Adjustment in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics
Mr. Joong S Kang
and
Mr. Jay C Shambaugh
The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.
Keywords:
WP; IMF staff calculation; current account; cost; Current account deficit; Internal devaluation; Competitiveness; Unit labor cost; output recovery; private sector; labor shedding; ULC peak; Labor costs; Wages; Employment; Current account deficits; Productivity; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest
Mr. Helge Berger
and
Mr. Henning Weber
The natural interest rate is of great relevance to central banks, but it is difficult to measure. We show that in a standard microfounded monetary model, the natural interest rate co-moves with a transformation of the money demand that can be computed from actual data. The co-movement is of a considerable magnitude and independent of monetary policy. An optimizing central bank that does not observe the natural interest rate can take advantage of this co-movement by incorporating the transformed money demand, in addition to the observed output gap and inflation, into a simple but optimal interest rate rule. Combining the transformed money demand and the observed output gap provides the best information about the natural interest rate.
Keywords:
WP; money gap; monetary policy; Natural interest rate; money demand; optimal monetary rule; gap coefficient; observed output gap; interest rate rule; policy rule; Demand for money; Output gap; Consumption; Monetary policy frameworks; Productivity