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Mr. Jarkko Turunen
,
Mr. Richard T. Harmsen
, and
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
Concerns about export growth within the euro area peripheral countries due to a lack of competitiveness within the euro area are a key policy issue. Our analysis suggests that: (i) Long-term price elasticities for intra-euro area exports are at least double those for extra-euro area exports, so traditional real effective exchange rate indexes may overstate the effectiveness of euro depreciation in restoring exports growth in the euro area periphery and; (ii) There are surprisingly wide divergences across alternative relative price measures and even when relative price data suggest a steady loss in intra- (and extra-) euro area competitiveness, the pace of deterioration depends on the measure of relative prices used.
J. Peter Neary
This paper reviews alternative approaches to measuring an economy's cost competitiveness and proposes some new measures inspired by the economic theory of index numbers. The indices provide a theoretical benchmark for estimated real effective exchange rates, but differ from standard measures in that they are based on marginal rather than average sectoral shares in GDP or employment. The use of the new indices is illustrated by some simple calculations that highlight the potential exposure of the Irish economy to fluctuations in the euro-sterling exchange rate.