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Miguel A Otero Fernandez
,
Jaime Ponce
,
Marc C Dobler
, and
Tomoaki Hayashi
This technical note explores the advantages and disadvantages of establishing state-sponsored centralized asset management companies (AMCs) to address high levels of bank asset distress during financial crises. AMCs may offer potential benefits like mitigating downward price spirals or achieving efficiency gains by consolidating creditor claims and scarce expertise. However, significant risks and costs warrant careful consideration. These include extreme uncertainties in asset valuation and substantial operational and financial risks. Past international experiences highlight the dangers of underestimating these risks, potentially turning the AMC into a mechanism for deferring losses to taxpayers, rather than minimizing them, and ultimately increasing long-term public costs and moral hazard. This technical note emphasizes these trade-offs and discusses crucial design elements for effective AMCs: a clear mandate, transfer pricing that prudently reflects asset values and disposal costs, strong governance with independent management, and efficient operational processes promoting transparency and accountability.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
While domestic money laundering (ML) threats are well understood by the authorities, Ireland faces significant and increasing threats from foreign criminal proceeds. As a growing international financial center,1 Ireland is exposed to inherent transnational money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF) related risks. The ML risks facing Ireland include illicit proceeds from foreign crimes (e.g., corruption, tax crimes). Retail and international banks, trust and company service providers (TCSPs),2 lawyers, and accountants are medium to high-risk for ML, while virtual asset service providers (VASPs) pose emerging risks. Brexit, the recent move of international banks to Dublin, and the COVID-19 pandemic increased the money laundering risks faced by Ireland. The Central Bank of Ireland (Central Bank) nevertheless has demonstrated a deep and robust experience in assessing and understanding their domestic ML/TF risks; however, an increased focus on risks related to transnational illicit financial flows is required. A thematic risk assessment undertaken by the Anti-Money Laundering Steering Committee (AMLSC) of international ML/TF risks would enhance the authorities’ risk understanding and is key to effective response to the rapid financial sector growth. Introducing data analytics tools, including machine learning to leverage potentially available big data on cross-border payments, would allow for efficient detection of emerging risks. The results of this assessment should be published to improve the understanding of transnational ML/TF risks and feed into the anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) policy priorities going forward.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note on Oversight of Fintech explains that Ireland’s fintech sector is growing in importance through the entry of innovative new players and digital transformation of incumbents’ business models and products. This note seeks to identify risks arising from fintech as well as policy responses by authorities. The Irish Government has adopted a Strategy implemented by annual action plans for the development of Ireland’s international financial services sector that includes several initiatives of relevance to fintech. The Central Bank has an Innovation Hub that provides a single point of contact for stakeholders on fintech-related issues. Under the EU’s passporting framework host regulators receive limited information on the activities that passporting entities carry out in their jurisdiction. Incumbent retail banks in Ireland are dedicating significant resources to digital transformation, while fintechs are enlarging consumer choice through innovative new services. The Central Bank should further intensify its efforts to monitor developments on crypto-assets through systematic data collection within the scope of its powers and, where unacceptable risks remain, issue carefully targeted warnings and investor communications.
Mr. Fabio Comelli
and
Ms. Sumiko Ogawa
This paper reviews the approaches to systemic risk analysis in 32 central bank financial stability reports (FSRs). We compare and contrast the systemic risk analysis in FSRs with the IMF Article IV staff reports, noting that Article IV staff reports and FSRs frequently pick up analytical content from each other. All reviewed FSRs include a systemic risk assessment, which has not always been the case in Article IV staff reports. Also, compared to Article IV staff reports, on average, FSRs tend to cover a wider range of financial risks and vulnerabilities and tend to have more extensive discussions of the policy mix to mitigate systemic risk. In these assessments, FSRs utilize sophisticated analytical tools, such as stress tests and growth-at-risk, more frequently than Article IV staff reports. We emphasize that a central bank FSR typically presents a rich resource that IMF country teams can leverage, as already done by some, in forming their independent view about systemic risk.
Silvia Iorgova
Outside of financial crises, investors have little incentive to produce private information on banks’ short-term liabilities held as information-insensitive safe assets. The same does not hold true during crises. We measure daily information production using data from credit default swap spreads during the global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis. We study abnormal information production around major events and interventions during these crises and find that, on average, capital injections reduced abnormal information production while early European stress tests increased it. We also link information production to outcomes: high levels of information production predict bank balance sheet contraction and higher government expenditures to support financial institutions. In an addendum, we show information production on nonfinancials dramatically increased relative to financials at the height of the COVID-19 crisis, reflecting the nonfinancial nature of the initial shock.
International Monetary Fund
The Tenth Periodic Monitoring Report (PMR) on the Status of Management Implementation Plans (MIPs) in Response to Board-Endorsed Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Recommendations assesses the progress made over the last year on actions contained in 10 MIPs with open management actions.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
and
Review Department
This paper undertakes a triage of the backlog of open actions in Management Implementation Plans (MIPs) responding to recommendations by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO), based on the Framework endorsed by the Board in March 2019.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Irish economy continues to expand strongly, benefitting from higher net exports by multinational enterprises and robust domestic demand. Accelerating wage growth reflects tight labor market conditions and inflation has started to pick up. Crisis legacies have diminished but some vulnerabilities persist. The outlook remains broadly positive, provided Brexit proceeds in an orderly manner. However, the economy operates near full capacity and an accelerating cyclical momentum could re-ignite a boom-bust dynamic. A no-deal Brexit represents the key downside risk, while escalation in global protectionism and sudden changes in corporate tax planning of multinational enterprises in Ireland could adversely affect the economy and public finances.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the past and present impact of personal income tax reform in Ireland. Personal income in Ireland is taxed under two distinct schemes. Changes in Ireland’s personal income taxation have been procyclical and created vulnerabilities to public finances. The reduction in personal income taxes during the boom has been broad based, albeit more for low-income taxpayers. With somewhat shrinking corporate profits during the crisis, personal income taxation was increased. The reformed income tax would reduce the vulnerability of public finances to interplay of corporate (CIT) revenues and reduce procyclicality. A robust, stable income tax system performs a stabilizing role over the business cycle, while the additional CIT revenues during booms could be saved as buffers to be used for smoothing downturns or to reduce the still high public debt. Post-2014, income taxes have been reduced again, fueling the recovery in domestic demand. The Income Tax could be further amended to enhance incentives to work, while safeguarding the progressivity of the system.
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
The Ninth Periodic Monitoring Report (PMR) on the Status of Management Implementation Plans (MIPs) in Response to Board-Endorsed Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Recommendations assesses the progress made over the last year on actions contained in two “new” MIPs arising from recent IEO evaluations, and another seven for which individual management actions were classified as “open” in the Eighth PMR. Overall, 42 of the 96 actions included in the Ninth PMR remain open, representing roughly the same proportion as the previous PMR. A 25 percent net increase in open management actions over the past year is accounted for by 24 new actions from two MIPs, and 16 actions that have been implemented over the period. There is positive traction on the last four MIPs, but older actions appear challenging to implement. Better progress has been made with the implementation of the actions contained in recent MIPs. Fourteen of the actions implemented since the Eighth PMR relate to MIPs approved after October 2015, while only two actions (out of 24) from earlier MIPs were implemented. Improvements in the follow-up process approved by the Board in October 2015 have contributed to speedier implementation of recent actions, but some challenges remain. There are lingering challenges with defining measures of success for numerous actions, but accountabilities are now clearer and many actions are at advanced stages at the time of the Board’s discussion of the MIPs. This PMR introduces indicators to support the process for resolving challenges with long-standing actions. Despite the slower progress with the older actions, significant advances have been made over the past year in several key areas. These include: protocols for engaging the IEO; risk management and analysis; the mainstreaming of macrofinancial surveillance; an overarching strategy on data and statistics; guidance on cooperation with other organizations, including Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs); improvements in External Stability Assessments; and ongoing analytical work on surveillance and program, including macrostructural issues, emerging topics, and debt sustainability analysis. On the other hand, progress has been slower on macro forecasting, outward spillovers, and cross-country knowledge sharing.