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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt: Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future?
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
This paper investigates the prospects for Ireland to grow its economy against the backdrop of high indebtedness. The paper uses vector autoregressive analysis to explore the interlinkages among competitiveness, exports, economic growth, and fiscal performance. The emerging conclusion is that Ireland, which has regained cost competitiveness following the crisis-driven fall in domestic prices, is poised to return to its path of strong exports and economic growth and lower imbalances provided that it maintains competitiveness, though a pickup in external demand is critical. Three main findings underpin this conclusion. First, external demand is an important driver of exports and also the single most important determinant of Ireland’s GDP and government revenue. Second, declines in price competitiveness, featured by real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciations, restrain exports and economic growth. Third, exports boost output, which in turn enhances fiscal performance.
Keywords:
WP; export; Ireland; GDP; FDI; revenue; Simultaneous equation models; economic growth; financial crises; public debt; economywide country studies; trading partners; FDI flow; market share; high-tech export sector; triangle exports growth; FDI dynamics; inward FDI; exports of G&S; Euro area debt crisis; Ireland's export; REER appreciation; housing market bubble; Exports; Real effective exchange rates; Export performance; Foreign direct investment; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Short-Term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk: A Global Covar Approach
International Monetary Fund
In this paper we identify some of the main factors behind systemic risk in a set of international large-scale complex banks using the novel CoVaR approach. We find that short-term wholesale funding is a key determinant in triggering systemic risk episodes. In contrast, we find no evidence that a larger size increases systemic risk within the class of large global banks. We also show that the sensitivity of system-wide risk to an individual bank is asymmetric across episodes of positive and negative asset returns. Since short-term wholesale funding emerges as the most relevant systemic factor, our results support the Basel Committee's proposal to introduce a net stable funding ratio, penalizing excessive exposure to liquidity risk.
Keywords:
WP; balance sheet; financial system; Systemic Risk; Wholesale Funding; Liquidity Risk; Macroprudential Regulation; ranking bank; balance-sheet data; bank characteristic; yield spread; bank overdraft; BAA corporate bond yield; composite index; bank recapitalization date; bank Dummiesj; Financial statements; Vector autoregression; Commercial banks; Global; Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cyclical Behavior of Inventories and Growth Projections Recent Evidence From Europe and the United States
Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister
and
Mr. Jens R Clausen
In the United States and a few European countries, inventory behavior is mainly the outcome of demand shocks: a standard buffer-stock model best characterizes these economies. But most European countries are described by a modified buffer-stock model where supply shocks dominate. In contrast to the United States, inventories boost growth with a one-year lag in Europe. Moreover, inventories provide limited information to improve growth forecasts particularly when a modified buffer-stock model characterizes inventory behavior.
Keywords:
WP; stock; inventory behavior; buffer-stock model; Inventories; business cycle; forecasting; inventory investment; foresight inventory model; stylized fact; inventory change; inventories stem; Production growth; Business cycles; Employment protection; Vector autoregression; Supply shocks; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers to Ireland
Mr. Daniel S Kanda
This paper discusses Ireland's trade and financial linkages with key partner countries, and uses a vector autoregression to examine the impact of shocks to partner country GDP and shocks to Irish competitiveness on Irish GDP. Two main findings are that shocks to U.S. GDP have a larger impact on Irish GDP than shocks to the euro area or the U.K. Also, the share of the variance of Irish GDP explained by shocks to competitiveness rises with the forecast horizon, suggesting that past erosion of competitiveness may yet have a more substantial impact on economic activity.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; real GDP; Ireland; area GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Endogenous Money Supply and Money Demand
Woon Gyu Choi
and
Seonghwan Oh
This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply partially responds to money demand. Our empirical results with U.S. data provide strong evidence for the relevance of the policy stance to the demand for MI under a regime in which monetary policy is substantially endogenous. Specifically, we find that tighter monetary policy has substantial positive impacts on money demand under the recent Federal funds rate targeting.
Keywords:
WP; funds rate; monetary policy; money stock; financial service; Money Demand; Money Supply Endogeneity; Financial Innovation; Monetary Policy Stance; money holding; first-half-period money demand; money demand function; money supply factor; Demand for money; Monetary base; Monetary tightening; Vector autoregression