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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 32 items for :

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  • Mathematical and Quantitative Methods x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Derivative Margin Calls: A New Driver of MMF Flows
Maddalena Ghio
,
Linda Rousova
,
Dilyara Salakhova
, and
German Villegas Bauer
During the March 2020 market turmoil, euro area money-market funds (MMFs) experienced significant outflows, reaching almost 8% of assets under management. This paper investigates whether the volatility in MMF flows was driven by investors’ liquidity needs related to derivative margin payments. We combine three highly granular unique data sources (EMIR data for derivatives, SHSS data for investor holdings of MMFs and Refinitiv Lipper data for daily MMF flows) to construct a daily fund-level panel dataset spanning from February to April 2020. We estimate the effects of variation margin paid and received by the largest holders of EURdenominated MMFs on flows of these MMFs. The main findings suggest that variation margin payments faced by some investors holding MMFs were an important driver of the flows of EUR-denominated MMFs domiciled in euro area.
Keywords:
liquidity risk; money market funds; big data; interconnectedness; non-bank financial intermediaries.; EUR-denominated MMFs; derivative margin calls; MMF flow; variation margin payment; VM flow; Stocks; Liquidity; Mutual funds; Nonbank financial institutions; Pension spending; Global; IMF working paper research Department; derivatives reform; margin payment; Derivative markets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from the UK
Giorgio Maarraoui
,
Walid Marrouch
,
Faten Saliba
, and
Ada Wossink
This paper uses life satisfaction data to help the design of climate mitigation policies in the United Kingdom. We assess the effects of the exposure to ambient pollutants on long-term life satisfaction and short-term mental health in the UK. We estimate augmented Cobb-Douglas utility functions using pooled and random effects ordinal logit models. Results show that increases in NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 significantly decrease the odds of longterm happiness and short-term mental health in the UK. The willingness to pay for clean air is also significant and increases with level of education. These measurements derived can be used as benchmarks for pollution abatement subsidies or pollution taxes and can help in projecting a more comprehensive assessment of costs and benefits.
Keywords:
Air Pollution; Happiness; Policy Valuation; Climate Change; Environmental Policies; Pollution Taxes; Pollution Abatement Subsidies; life satisfaction data; dataset description; air pollutant; pollutants' correlation; household data; ordinal Logit; Income; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Elizabeth M. Mahoney
, and
Cristian Badarinza
During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.
Keywords:
Non-residential Real Estate; Financial Conditions; Liquidity; Big Data; level data; CRE price; household indebtedness; CRE market; CRE transaction; COVID-19; Real estate prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Special Purpose Entities: Guidelines for a Data Template
Mr. Carlos Sanchez-Munoz
,
Artak Harutyunyan
, and
Ms. Padma S Hurree Gobin
The Note is meant to assist compilers in the practical application of the agreed defini¬tion to identify resident Special Purpose Entities (SPE) in their jurisdictions and in collecting and reporting SPE-related cross-border data. To this end, these guidelines provide practical advice on the (1) implementa¬tion of the definition of SPEs, (2) possible data sources and processes for collecting and compiling SPE-related statistics, and (3) reporting within the agreed Data Template.
Keywords:
Globalization; multinationals; host jurisdictions; institutional units; control; cross-border flows and positions; SPE definition; SPE data collection; company B; SPE flow; SPE statistics; Special purpose vehicle; Data collection; External sector statistics; Foreign direct investment; International investment position; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Insolvency and Creditor Rights
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This note analyzes select aspects of the system for insolvency and creditors’ rights in the context of an overall assessment of the Irish financial sector. It focuses on two areas: (1) the use and effectiveness of the corporate restructuring regime and (2) the resolution of mortgage related nonperforming loan NPLs. Ireland’s corporate insolvency regime is largely in line with international best practice, although the regime is little used, and a review is in order. The issue of long-term mortgage arrears is complex and will require further development of an overall strategy, with multiple government bodies playing a role. While mortgage arrears are largely a legacy issue from the 2008 crisis, the failure to fully resolve these arrears has the potential to undermine credit growth and affordability, given the impact on credit risk of higher uncertainty of realizing collateral. The Government should adopt a coordinated, multi-agency strategy for resolving mortgage arrears, informed by the granular data available on the financial situation and debt servicing capacity of borrowers. Published guidance on expected solutions based on financial indicators, and broader social support would be critical to this approach and possible strategy.
Keywords:
PDH mortgage account; mortgage ARREARS resolution process; mortgage lending; period accounts; companies registration office; Solvency; Mortgages; Corporate insolvency; Arrears; Data collection; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
St. Kitts and Nevis entered the Covid-19 pandemic from a position of fiscal strength following nearly a decade of budget surpluses. A significant part of the large CBI revenues was prudently saved, reducing public debt below the regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP and supporting accumulation of large government deposits.
Keywords:
authorities of St. Kitts and Nevis; CBI revenue; CBI revenue volatility; government target population; CBI program; lower-than-expected CBI receipts; COVID-19; Loans; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier
Mario di Serio
,
Matteo Fragetta
, and
Mr. Giovanni Melina
We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but the difference between multipliers in the negative and positive r-g regimes differs systematically from zero with very high probability. Over the medium run (5 years), median cumulated multipliers range between 1.22 and 1.77 when r-g is negative, and between 0.51 and 1.26 when r-g is positive. We show that the results are not driven by the state of the business cycle, the monetary policy stance, or the level of government debt, and that the multiplier is inversely correlated with r-g. The calculations are based on the estimates of a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information.
Keywords:
Fiscal multiplier; Panel VAR; Factor models; Euro Area; r-g.; WP; government spending multiplier; potential GDP; cumulated multiplier; EA country; government debt
Cover Policy Papers
Tenth Periodic Monitoring Report On The Status Of Management Implementation Plans In Response To Board-Endorsed IEO Recommendations
International Monetary Fund
The Tenth Periodic Monitoring Report (PMR) on the Status of Management Implementation Plans (MIPs) in Response to Board-Endorsed Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Recommendations assesses the progress made over the last year on actions contained in 10 MIPs with open management actions.
Keywords:
PP; Board-endorsed Independent Evaluation Office; IEO recommendation; IEO evaluation; PMR; staff diversity; PMR monitoring; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Communications in revenue administration; Financial sector; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound
Adalgiso Amendola
,
Mario di Serio
,
Matteo Fragetta
, and
Mr. Giovanni Melina
We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information.
Keywords:
WP; government spending multiplier; shadow rate; Fiscal multiplier; Zero lower bound; Panel VAR; Factor models; Euro Area; government spending shock; multiplier policymaker; cumulated multiplier; one-year multiplier; ELB regime; potential GDP; Interest rate floor; Business cycles; Central bank policy rate; Fiscal multipliers; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unemployment Surges in the EU: The Role of Risk Premium Shocks
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
,
Marta Korczak
, and
Mr. Krzysztof Krogulski
In the last decade, over half of the EU countries in the euro area or with currencies pegged to the euro were hit by large risk premium shocks. Previous papers have focused on the impact of these shocks on demand. This paper, by contrast, focuses on the impact on supply. We show that risk premium shocks reduce the output level that maximizes profit. They also lead to unemployment surges, as firms are forced to cut costs when financing becomes expensive or is no longer available. As a result, all countries with risk premium shocks saw unemployment surge, even as euro area core countries managed to contain unemployment as firms hoarded labor during the downturn. Most striking, wage bills in euro area crisis countries and the Baltics declined even faster than GDP, whereas in core euro area countries wage shares actually increased.
Keywords:
WP; risk premium shock; risk premium; interest rate; GDP; Risk premia; interest rates; Euro area crisis; global economic; fincanial crisis; debt ratio; risk premium surge; unemployment surge; financing cost; Return on investment; Unemployment; Employment; Sovereign bonds; Baltics