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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt Issuance in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Financial Crisis
International Monetary Fund
This paper documents and analyzes crisis-related changes in government debt issuance practices in the 16 euro zone countries and Denmark. Using a newly constructed database on primary market debt issuance during 2007-09, we find evidence of a shift away from pre-crisis standards of best funding practices competitive auctions of debt instruments with a fixed coupon, long maturity and local currency denomination (DLTF). Exploiting the cross-country panel data dimension of the data, we conclude that the crisis and related changes in the macroeconomic environment and investor sentiment can account for a significant proportion of the deviation. The negative effect of the crisis on DLTF debt issuance was especially pronounced in high deficit and high debt euro area countries, and has forced governments to assume additional risk.
Keywords:
WP; debt; deficit; investor; yield; sovereign debt; fiscal policy; sovereign debt management; debt issuance; DLTF debt; debt stock; foreign currency; debt variable; Inflation; Currencies; Industrial production; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography
Michael Ehrmann
,
Marcel Fratzscher
, and
Mr. Helge Berger
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.
Keywords:
WP; policy rate; interest rate; central bank; consumer confidence; ECB monetary policy decision; monetary policy; ECB; forecast; geography; history; heterogeneity; Taylor rule; learning; transmission; survey data; communication; ECB behavior; ECB policy decision; ECB headquarters; ECB policy rate; systematic error; ECB communication; expected ECB policy rate; ECB policy change; ECB decision-making; ECB activity; Central bank policy rate; Central bank autonomy; Inflation; Industrial production; Unemployment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Using An EC-Wide Monetary Aggregate in Stage Two of EMU
Mr. Peter B. Kenen
and
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments, the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity.
Keywords:
WP; money supply; ERM money supply; monetary policy; monetary aggregate; core ERM country; money supply granger; ERM country; ERM aggregate; ERM monetary aggregate; aggregate ERM series; ERM parity; Monetary base; Monetary aggregates; Inflation; Industrial production; Exchange rates; Global