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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Steady as She Goes—Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts”
Mr. Helge Berger
,
Mr. Thomas Dowling
,
Mr. Sergi Lanau
,
Mr. Mico Mrkaic
,
Mr. Pau Rabanal
, and
Marzie Taheri Sanjani
Potential output—in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term—is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial “booms and busts” are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach to illustrate the role financial variables play in driving potential or sustainable output. The results suggest that it moves more steadily during financial “boom and bust” periods than implied by conventional HP filter estimates, which tend to more closely follow actual GDP. A two-region, multisector New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions sheds light on the economic forces that could be behind the results obtained from the filter. This has important implications for policymakers.
Keywords:
WP; MVF output gap; boom and bust; Spain output gaps estimate; house price; MVF-implied output gap; Spain output gaps from a MVF Model; Potential output; Output gap; Credit; housing price movement; Housing prices; Financial frictions; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investment in the Euro Area: Why Has It Been Weak?
Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu
,
Pelin Berkmen
,
Pavel Lukyantsau
,
Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs
, and
Hanni Schoelermann
Investment across the euro area remains below its pre-crisis level. Its performance has been weaker than in most previous recessions and financial crises. This paper shows that a part of this weakness can be explained by output dynamics, particularly before the European sovereign debt crisis. The rest is explained by a high cost of capital, financial constraints, corporate leverage, and uncertainty. There is a considerable cross country heterogeneity in terms of both investment dymanics and its determinants. Based on the findings of this paper, investment is expected to pick up as the recovery strengthens and uncertainty declines, but persistent financial fragmentation and high corporate leverage in some countries will likely continue to weigh on investment.
Keywords:
WP; investment; cash flow; investment dynamics; cost of capital; credit rationing; aggregate investment equation; area investment; investment model; investment performance; investment pattern; performance in Europe; equipment investment; investment equation; Stocks; Neoclassical theory; Currencies; Yield curve; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs
Francesco Furlanetto
,
Paolo Gelain
, and
Marzie Taheri Sanjani
The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure of output gap that accounts for frictions in financial market. Furthermore we illustrate that, in the presence of financial frictions, a benevolent central bank faces a substantial trade-off between nominal and real stabilization; optimal monetary policy significantly reduces fluctuations in price and wage inflations but fails to alleviate the output gap volatility. This suggests a role for macroprudential policies.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; Financial Frictions; Potential output; Optimal Monetary Policy; Output Gap; output gap stabilization; computing output gap; wage inflation; mark-up shock; asset price inflation; efficient frontier; output gap dynamics; monetary policy authority; implied output gaps; output gap in presence; inflation target shock; monetary policy shock; Wages; Inflation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs
Pär Österholm
and
Mr. Helge Berger
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice.
Keywords:
WP; money; Bayesian vector autoregressive; money growth