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International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights quantitative tightening (QT) by the European Central Bank (ECB). It uses evidence from the literature on the impact of central bank bond purchases and sales on bond yields, and the monetary policy stance, to outline a roadmap for reducing the Euro system’s bond holdings. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The paper concludes that the ECB’s short term policy rates should be the main choice for adapting the monetary policy stance to changing circumstances and QT should proceed in a gradual, predictable manner as outlined by the ECB.
Luciano Greco
and
Mariano Moszoro
The economic debate underlines the reasons why discount rates of infrastructure projects should be similar, regardless the public or private source of financing, during the forecast period when flows are risky but predictable. In contrast, we show that the incompleteness of contracts between governments and private firms beyond the forecast period (i.e., when flows of net social benefits are state-contingent) entails expected terminal values that are systematically larger under government rather than private financing. This effect provides a new rationale for applying a lower discount rate in the assessment of projects under public financing as compared to private financing.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note on Oversight of Fintech explains that Ireland’s fintech sector is growing in importance through the entry of innovative new players and digital transformation of incumbents’ business models and products. This note seeks to identify risks arising from fintech as well as policy responses by authorities. The Irish Government has adopted a Strategy implemented by annual action plans for the development of Ireland’s international financial services sector that includes several initiatives of relevance to fintech. The Central Bank has an Innovation Hub that provides a single point of contact for stakeholders on fintech-related issues. Under the EU’s passporting framework host regulators receive limited information on the activities that passporting entities carry out in their jurisdiction. Incumbent retail banks in Ireland are dedicating significant resources to digital transformation, while fintechs are enlarging consumer choice through innovative new services. The Central Bank should further intensify its efforts to monitor developments on crypto-assets through systematic data collection within the scope of its powers and, where unacceptable risks remain, issue carefully targeted warnings and investor communications.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note highlights Ireland’s Insurance Regulation and Supervision. Ireland’s insurance sector is characterized by high penetration and density in both the life and the non-life sector, which, however, stems largely from outward cross-border business. Irish insurers have proved to be resilient during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, although the full effects have yet to be seen. Primary drivers of solvency ratios have been financial market and interest rate movements affecting insurers’ investment portfolios and liability valuations. The Central Bank has been expanding its analysis of climate risks and corresponding risk management practices in the financial sector. There is scope for the Central Bank to leverage its expertise and experience to promote further EU convergence on insurance oversight. The Central Bank has been very active in policy discussions at the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and is well placed to take a leading role in the efforts to achieve consistent application of EU legislation, and generally supervisory convergence, on the supervision of cross-border business; the supervision of intra-group transactions and group concentrations; and the supervision of captives.
Adalgiso Amendola
,
Mario di Serio
,
Matteo Fragetta
, and
Mr. Giovanni Melina
We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information.
Carolina Correa-Caro
,
Leandro Medina
,
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
, and
Mr. Bennett W Sutton
Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter’s Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structural deficit) interacted with sectoral business cycle sensitivity affected corporate profitability during the recovery period of the global financial crisis (GFC). Using cross-sectional analyses, our findings indicate that corporate profitability improved significantly after the GFC fiscal stimulus, especially in manufacturing, utilities and retail sectors. Firm size and leverage are also found to be significant in explaining changes in corporate profitability.
Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson
This paper develops a small open economy model where global and domestic liquidity is intermediated to the corporate sector through two financial processes. Investment banks intermediate cross-border credit through interlinked debt contracts to entrepreneurs and commercial banks intermediate domestic savings to liquidity constrained final good producers. Both processes are needed to facilitate development of key production inputs. The model captures procyclical investment bank leverage dynamics, global liquidity spillovers, domestic money market pressures, and macrofinancial linkages through which shocks propagate across the two processes, affecting spreads and balance sheets, as well as the real economy through investment and working capital channels.