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Europe > Ireland

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Green Jobs and the Future of Work for Women and Men
The transition to a sustainable and green economy requires workers to move out of carbon-intensive jobs and workers to move into green jobs. The pace and effectiveness of the transition hinge not only on climate policies but also on the skills and adaptability of workers. Evidence suggests that economies with a robust supply of STEM-educated workers and a more equal treatment of women are better placed to transition faster and at a lower cost to a green economy, even after controlling for other country characteristics, because these economies generate more green innovation and face lower bottlenecks in expanding the green workforce. Altogether, climate policies, particularly energy taxes, in these economies are associated with emission reductions that are 2 to 4 percentage points larger than in economies with a less inclusive and educated workforce. While green jobs have been growing worldwide, men currently hold close to two-thirds of these positions and women only one-third. Green jobs are associated with a 7 percent premium for men and an even higher premium of 12 percent for women, suggesting that men’s and women’s labor supply may not meet demand. These findings highlight the critical need for educational and labor policies that promote skill enhancement and gender inclusivity, to ensure a sufficient supply of workers for the green economy and that all workers can benefit from the green transition. Finally, AI could be beneficial for workers in green jobs.
Keywords:
Labor Market Transition; Climate Change; Employment; Gender Equality; gender green employment gap decomposition; employment share; green wage premium; worker occupation; women employment; green jobs workers' characteristic; Gender inequality; Women; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that the euro area is recovering gradually, with a modest acceleration of growth projected for 2024, gathering further speed in 2025. Increasing real wages together with some drawdown of household savings are contributing to consumption, while the projected easing of financing conditions is supporting a recovery in investment. A modest pickup in growth is projected for 2024, strengthening further in 2025. This primarily reflects expected stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and higher investment supported by easing financing conditions. Inflation is projected to return to target in the second half of 2025. The economy is confronting important new challenges, layered on existing ones. Beyond returning inflation to target and ensuring credible fiscal consolidation in high-debt countries, the euro area must urgently focus on enhancing innovation and productivity. Higher growth is essential for creating policy space to tackle the fiscal challenges of aging, the green transition, energy security, and defense.
Keywords:
EU institution; EU industrial; headline inflation; EU climate; two-sided inflation risk; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—the Netherlands: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
labor market slack; teaching staff; policy implication; support program; C. employment support scheme coverage; B. labor market development; efficiency frontier; education outcome; Employment; Education spending; Labor markets; COVID-19; Europe; North America; Caribbean; Global; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Guaranteed Minimum Income Schemes in Europe: Landscape and Design
Mr. David Coady
,
Samir Jahan
,
Baoping Shang
, and
Riki Matsumoto
This paper provides an overview of the design of means-tested Guaranteed Minimum Income schemes, which constitute an important component of social protection systems in European countries. It discusses how key design features differ across countries, including how countries balance the primary objective of poverty alleviation against the desire to both manage the work disincentives inherent in such programs and contain fiscal cost. The analysis finds a clear trade-off between both concerns in practice, with many countries combining low generosity with low benefit withdrawal rates (BWRs) thus prioritizing employment incentives over the primary objective of poverty alleviation. Many countries can reduce this trade off by combining higher generosity with higher BWRs. Countries with very high BWRs should consider reducing these, including through allowing income disregards and time dependent (rather than income-dependent) benefit withdrawal. The work disincentives associated with higher BWRs can also be attenuated through strengthening complementary activation policies that incentivize and support participation in the labor market.
Keywords:
work disincentive; activation policy; Labor disincentive; Guaranteed Minimum Income scheme; benefit generosity; GMI scheme; Income; Employment; Wages; Labor markets; Tax allowances; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2020 Consultation on Common Euro Area Policies-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to severe socio-economic dislocations and hardship. Supported by an unprecedented policy response and by the easing of lockdown measures as the infection rate moderated, the euro area economy initially recovered strongly from the pandemic’s first wave. However, a large second wave and reimposition of containment measures suggest much slower growth momentum in the near term. The outlook is for a subdued economic recovery and low inflation, with a significant permanent output loss relative to the pre-crisis trajectory. Uncertainty remains extremely high, mainly due to different pandemic scenarios, including regarding the availability and effectiveness of potential vaccines and therapies and behavioral changes. Output growth is expected to be much lower through 2021Q1 than projected in 2020 October World Economic Outlook (WEO) but may rebound beyond then in light of recent promising news on vaccine development. The key policy challenge is to continue countering the pandemic while facilitating a robust and inclusive recovery, including by addressing the health crisis, containing economic scarring, supporting resource reallocation and transformation to greener and more digital economies, and limiting the crisis’s impact on inequality and poverty. In a downside scenario, sizable further stimulus would be needed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; EU leader; recovery package; EU emission reduction goal; EU budget; increase private
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The UK entered 2020 negotiating a new economic relationship with the EU and facing other challenges, including meeting climate targets, dealing with an aging population, and reinvigorating tepid productivity growth. Growth and investment had been weak since the 2016 referendum, and the current account deficit elevated, but unemployment was low, inflation on target, and balance sheets strong. The global pandemic hit the UK hard in March, and the country now faces a second wave. The economic impact has been severe, but helped by an aggressive policy response, jobs have been preserved, businesses kept afloat, and banking sector losses contained. Still, the outlook for the near term is weak, as the economy works through the second wave, Brexit, rising unemployment, and corporate distress. Risks are overall to the downside, centering on the degree of balance sheet damage sustained by households and small and medium enterprises. The pace at which vaccines are able to bring the pandemic under control could be an important mitigating factor.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; NI Protocol; draft UK; bank dividend payment; welfare provision; withdrawal agreement; activity data; COVID-19; Inflation; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Distributional Implications of Labor Market Reforms: Learning from Spain's Experience
Ara Stepanyan
and
Jorge Salas
Spain’s structural reforms, implemented around 2012, have arguably contributed to a faster and stronger economic recovery. In particular, there is strong evidence that the 2012 labor market reforms increased wage flexibility, which helped the Spanish economy to regain competitiveness and create jobs. But the impact of these labor reforms on income inequality and social inclusion has not been analyzed much. This paper aims to shed light on this issue by employing an econometric decomposition procedure combined with the synthetic control method. The results indicate that the 2012 labor reforms have helped improve employment and income equality outcomes with no substantial impact on the overall risk of poverty. Nevertheless, the reforms appear to have induced a deterioration of average hours worked, in-work poverty, and possibly also of involuntary part-time employment.
Keywords:
WP; income; employment growth; Spain; employment outcome; employment protection regulation; part-time employment; reform date; structural reforms; labor market reforms; income inequality; social inclusion; synthetic control method; employment protection reform; product market reform; labor market inclusiveness; Employment; Income distribution; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The (Subjective) Well-Being Cost of Fiscal Policy Shocks
Kodjovi M. Eklou
and
Mamour Fall
Do discretionary spending cuts and tax increases hurt social well-being? To answer this question, we combine subjective well-being data covering over half a million of individuals across 13 European countries, with macroeconomic data on fiscal consolidations. We find that fiscal consolidations reduce individual well-being in the short run, especially when they are based on spending cuts. In addition, we show that accompanying monetary and exchange rate policies (disinflation, depreciations and the liberalization of capital flows) mitigate the well-being cost of fiscal consolidations. Finally, we investigate the well-being consequences of the two well-knowns expansionary fiscal consolidations episodes taking place in the 80s (in Denmark and Ireland). We find that even expansionary fiscal consolidations can have well-being costs. Our results may therefore shed some light on why some governments may choose to consolidate through taxes even at the cost of economic growth. Indeed, if spending cuts are to generate a large well-being loss, they can trigger an opposition and protest against a fiscal consolidation plan and hence making it politically costly.
Keywords:
WP; public goods; well-being cost; inflation rate; fiscal policy shock; substitution effect; effect of fiscal consolidations; dampening effect; spending cut size; recessionary effect; Fiscal consolidation; Income inequality; Consumption taxes; Active labor market policies; Europe; Fiscal Consolidations; Subjective Well-Being; Spending cuts; Tax hikes
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Assessment of Global Formula Apportionment
Ruud A. de Mooij
,
Ms. Li Liu
, and
Dinar Prihardini
Formula apportionment as a way to attribute taxable profits of multinationals across jurisdictions is receiving increased attention. This paper reviews existing literature and discusses experiences in selective federal states to evaluate the economic properties of formula apportionment relative to the current international tax regime that is based on separate accounting. It highlights major advantages, such as the elimination of profit shifting within multinational groups; and it discusses new distortions and the impact on tax competition. The analysis exploits different datasets to assess the direct revenue implications for individual countries under alternative formulas. The distributional effects across countries are found to be large, reflecting major discrepancies between where profits are currently attributed and where factors of production are located or sales take place. The largest losses appear in investment hubs (i.e. countries with a disproportionate ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP), while several large advanced countries are likely to gain. Developing countries gain most likely if employment receives a large weight in the formula; they also tend to benefit, on average, from a formula based on sales by destination.
Keywords:
WP; parent company; taxable income; company group; company transaction; enterprise tax.; non-loss-making company; International corporate taxation; Multinationals; Formula apportionment; enterprise tax; tax competition; data from ORBIS; tax enforcement; revenue effect; Corporate income tax; Personal income; Employment; Global; Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2018
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance and Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; income; worker; remittances migrant; population aging; economy