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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This first issue of IMF Staff Papers for 2005 contains 7 papers that discuss: whether output recovered after the Asian crisis; the value of a country's trading partners to its own economic growth; whether interdependence is a factor in understanding the spread of currency crises; can remittance payments from expatriates be a reliable source of capital for economic development?; total factor productivity; designing a VAT for the energy trade in Russia and Ukraine; and lastly, a discussion of the reasons for central bank intervention in ERM-I since 1993
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper presents international evidence on the determinants of trade dynamics. It provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. A comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical work on controls over International capital movements. Theoretical contributions reviewed focus on “second-best “ arguments for capital market restrictions, as well as arguments based on multiple equilibria. The empirical literature suggests that controls have been “effective “ in the narrow sense of influencing yield differentials. But there is little evidence that controls have helped governments meet policy objectives, with the exception of reducing the governments’ debt-service costs, and no evidence that controls have enhanced economic welfare in a manner suggested by theory.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper examines the conditions under which the monetary authorities of a large industrial country can influence the exchange rate while keeping the growth rate of the money stock on a predetermined target. Monetary policy in the large industrial countries has in recent years focused primarily on the achievement of predetermined growth rates for monetary aggregates. This study treats such intervention as an example of a broader class of combination policies that, for convenience, may be called “sterilized policies.” In order to determine whether sterilized policies may be expected to be effective, this study examines the role of several specific types of monetary policy instrument in the context of a portfolio-balance model of financial markets. Each of the major countries employs a unique combination of policy instruments, ranging from market-oriented systems largely free of regulation to systems that rely heavily on quantitative ceilings and regulated interest rates. It is shown that sterilized changes in at least three of these instruments, as well as exchange market intervention, will have predictable effects on the exchange rate. The potentially effective instruments are reserve requirements on nonresident deposits or on deposits that are included in the targeted monetary aggregate, and controls on interest rates that are payable on such deposits.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper focuses on various aspects of the Euro-dollar market. The market in Euro-dollars is a wide and complicated one spread over six continents and bound together by a network of cable, telex, and telephone communication. The paperwork in the market tends to confirm rather than to initiate transactions. The financial standing of the banks in the market is such that transactions are based on names and do not involve collateral and guarantees. Some Euro-dollar funds are used to finance commercial loans and other domestic transactions, either in the form of dollars or in local currency purchased with dollars. There has been a large amount of such transactions in Germany, Italy, and Japan, and smaller amounts in many other countries, including Switzerland. The role of Euro-dollars as a money market instrument has some important implications. A substantial part of the Euro-dollar pool circulates and recirculates endlessly among banks. The rapid development of the Euro-dollar market, the facilities offered by a new money market instrument, and the increased, although gentlemanly, competition among banks on both the domestic and international scene, have been accompanied by a certain amount of exuberance.