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Europe > Ireland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 167 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Denmark: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the macroeconomic impact of the pharmaceutical sector. The analysis focuses on Novo Nordisk, the leading pharmaceutical company in Denmark, and its productivity impact on the rest of the economy. Empirical evidence suggests only weak correlations between productivity shocks at Novo Nordisk and overall economic growth, as well as between Novo Nordisk’s productivity and that of other firms. The findings suggest there is limited risk that Denmark’s booming pharmaceutical company would become its “Nokia.” Although the pharmaceutical sector will be a key driver of growth, most of its production occurs overseas under Danish ownership. As a result, its linkages with the rest of the domestic economy, in terms of employment and supply chains, are somewhat limited. The empirical results also indicate limited spillover effects through productivity channels. However, the empirical results may underestimate the influence of Novo Nordisk due to limited data.
Keywords:
mitigating factor; productivity shock; E. policy option; Policy consideration; shocks to Novo Nordisk; energy firm; covered bond bond market; Nonbank financial institutions; Labor productivity; Covered bonds; Systemic risk assessment; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that the euro area is recovering gradually, with a modest acceleration of growth projected for 2024, gathering further speed in 2025. Increasing real wages together with some drawdown of household savings are contributing to consumption, while the projected easing of financing conditions is supporting a recovery in investment. A modest pickup in growth is projected for 2024, strengthening further in 2025. This primarily reflects expected stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and higher investment supported by easing financing conditions. Inflation is projected to return to target in the second half of 2025. The economy is confronting important new challenges, layered on existing ones. Beyond returning inflation to target and ensuring credible fiscal consolidation in high-debt countries, the euro area must urgently focus on enhancing innovation and productivity. Higher growth is essential for creating policy space to tackle the fiscal challenges of aging, the green transition, energy security, and defense.
Keywords:
EU institution; EU industrial; headline inflation; EU climate; two-sided inflation risk; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Luxembourg: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Investment Funds: Regulation and Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights a technical note on Investment Funds: Regulation and Supervision for the Luxembourg Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) has a robust supervisory framework with substantive improvements since the last FSAP, but some areas could be further strengthened. Given the structural importance of delegation for Luxembourg domiciled funds, initiating an on-site inspection framework for delegates outside Luxembourg assumes importance. CSSF’s enforcement framework could be substantially improved through enhancements on four key fronts. CSSF could improve the domestic regulatory framework on areas such as winding up, valuation, and approach to indirectly regulated Alternative Investment Funds AIFs. Given Luxembourg’s position as the domicile of EU’s largest IF sector, CSSF should actively continue to promote and contribute to EU level reforms on various topics. With respect to liquidity risks, CSSF should continue to actively contribute to the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA) guidance on the use of Liquidity Management Tools and to engage closely with ESMA and the EU Commission on the proposed revision of the Eligible Assets Directive.
Keywords:
managers directive; investment fund manager; Banque Centrale du Luxembourg; EU requirement; investment fund Sector; Mutual funds; Financial sector stability; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Systemic risk; Liquidity risk; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ireland’s economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of consecutive shocks. The Irish economy has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of recent consecutive shocks and is well-positioned to achieve a soft landing. Growth is expected to moderate to a still solid level in 2023-24, from a very high base, as tighter financial conditions, domestic capacity constraints, and weakening external demand weigh on the economy. Continued fiscal prudence is warranted to complement monetary tightening in sustaining disinflation and to build adequate buffers for the future. As fiscal policy should avoid adding to aggregate demand amid still elevated inflation, tax revenue over performance should be saved. The 2023 fiscal stance is appropriate. Fiscal policy should support growth-enhancing investment and broaden the tax base. The authorities’ decision to save part of excess corporate income tax revenues in two savings funds is welcome. Tighter financial conditions, persistent inflation, and rising vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate market with linkages to leveraged non-banks call for continued heightened vigilance of financial stability risks.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; inflation development; transparency policy; money market rate; quarterly balance of payments; growth-enhancing investment; Medium-term fiscal policy; persistent inflation; Ireland's economy; Housing; Inflation; Corporate income tax; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an international perspective to the authorities’ two recent policy measures: setting up new savings and counter cyclical and climate infrastructure funds and reforming the judicial review of planning decisions in Ireland. The first essay presents international best practices in the design and operation of sovereign wealth funds that could inform the setup of the two new funds in Ireland. It highlights the importance of operating the funds within a strong fiscal policy framework. The second essay reviews Ireland’s planning and permitting system, underscoring the key elements that have hindered public investment. It also looks into the government’s proposed Bill to reform the planning system and contrasts its key features with those of other international jurisdictions. It finds that several issues may contribute to the inefficiencies in the planning and judicial review system, such as the loose standing requirements and lack of mandatory timelines related to judicial review, as well as institutional governance issues within the planning board, which the newly proposed reforms and legislative measures seek to address.
Keywords:
housing affordability; D. policy option; savings fund; modernizing judicial review; impulse response; Housing; Housing prices; Pension spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nordic-Baltic Regional Report: Technical Assistance Report-Nordic-Baltic Technical Assistance Project Financial Flows Analysis, AML/CFT Supervision, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
Keywords:
TF risk assessment; colleges participation; TF risk; EU Anti-Money Laundering Authority; supervisory cooperation; information Sharin; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Virtual currencies; Correspondent banking; Internal controls; Financial sector stability; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Euro Area; IMF Country Report No. 23/264
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the euro area economy has shown remarkable resilience in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the largest terms of trade shock in several decades, thanks to a swift policy response and a strong rebound in contact-intensive services. Looking ahead, growth is expected to pick up gradually throughout 2023 and 2024, supported by a recovery in real incomes in the context of continued tight labor market conditions, a further easing of supply constraints, and firmer external demand, even as financial conditions continue to tighten. While headline inflation has fallen sharply recently after reaching record high levels, core inflation is proving more persistent. As tight financial conditions restrain demand and supply shocks dissipate further, inflation is set to decline further but is expected to remain elevated for an extended period. Renewed supply shocks, which could result from an escalation of the war in Ukraine and a related increase of commodity prices, or a further intensification of geoeconomic fragmentation, would also push up inflation and hurt growth. On the upside, the economy could again prove more resilient than expected, especially amid a still large stock of excess savings.
Keywords:
Euro area headline inflation; inflation expectation; EU climate investment fund; EU AML authority; EU institution; EU bank; core inflation; EU economy; Inflation; Energy prices; Fiscal stance; Monetary tightening; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights quantitative tightening (QT) by the European Central Bank (ECB). It uses evidence from the literature on the impact of central bank bond purchases and sales on bond yields, and the monetary policy stance, to outline a roadmap for reducing the Euro system’s bond holdings. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The paper concludes that the ECB’s short term policy rates should be the main choice for adapting the monetary policy stance to changing circumstances and QT should proceed in a gradual, predictable manner as outlined by the ECB.
Keywords:
ECB Policy rate; ECB balance sheet; app portfolio; C. Policy consideration; bond supply net of ECB; Financial statements; Unconventional monetary policies; Central bank policy rate; Monetary stance; Securities
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The FSAP took place against the background of a fast-evolving financial sector in Ireland and heightened uncertainty in the global economy. The Irish financial landscape has undergone significant changes since the global financial crisis with increasing divergence between an innovative and fast-growing international finance sector and the retail banking sector that has been consolidating and faces post-GFC operating restrictions and increasing competition from non-bank players. In the meantime, both the global pandemic and Brexit have left uneven marks across the economy, while there are risks from the unwinding of public support that has softened COVID-19 shock’s impact on the economy. Going forward, various ongoing and emerging risks, such as persistent inflationary pressures, fueled by supply bottlenecks, and the war in Ukraine, may impede recovery, and magnify vulnerabilities to downside shocks.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
While domestic money laundering (ML) threats are well understood by the authorities, Ireland faces significant and increasing threats from foreign criminal proceeds. As a growing international financial center,1 Ireland is exposed to inherent transnational money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF) related risks. The ML risks facing Ireland include illicit proceeds from foreign crimes (e.g., corruption, tax crimes). Retail and international banks, trust and company service providers (TCSPs),2 lawyers, and accountants are medium to high-risk for ML, while virtual asset service providers (VASPs) pose emerging risks. Brexit, the recent move of international banks to Dublin, and the COVID-19 pandemic increased the money laundering risks faced by Ireland. The Central Bank of Ireland (Central Bank) nevertheless has demonstrated a deep and robust experience in assessing and understanding their domestic ML/TF risks; however, an increased focus on risks related to transnational illicit financial flows is required. A thematic risk assessment undertaken by the Anti-Money Laundering Steering Committee (AMLSC) of international ML/TF risks would enhance the authorities’ risk understanding and is key to effective response to the rapid financial sector growth. Introducing data analytics tools, including machine learning to leverage potentially available big data on cross-border payments, would allow for efficient detection of emerging risks. The results of this assessment should be published to improve the understanding of transnational ML/TF risks and feed into the anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) policy priorities going forward.
Keywords:
TF risk; TF threat; supervisory approach; central bank of Ireland; risk assessment; fund FSAP team; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial sector; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Terrorism financing; Tax evasion; Global