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Health and Fitness > Diseases: Respiratory

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Dirty Money: Does the Risk of Infectious Disease Lower Demand for Cash?
Mr. Serhan Cevik
The coronavirus pandemic is a global crisis like no other in modern times, and there is a growing apprehension about handling potentially contaminated cash. This paper is the first empirical attempt in the literature to investigate whether the risk of infectious diseases affects demand for physical cash. Since the intensity of cash use may influence the spread of infectious diseases, this paper utilizes two-stage least squares (2SLS) methodology with instrumental variable (IV) to address omitted variable bias and account for potential endogeneity. The analysis indicates that the spread of infectious diseases lowers demand for physical cash, after controlling for macroeconomic, financial, and technological factors. While the transactional constraints imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic could become a catalyst for the use of digital technologies around the world, electronic payment methods may not be universally available in every country owing to financial and technological bottlenecks.
Keywords:
Demand for cash; currency-in-circulation; digital money; infectious diseases; WP; cash use; handling cash; cash transfer; store of value; infectious-disease outbreak; payment method; coronavirus pandemic; Communicable diseases; Currencies; COVID-19; Deposit rates; Ebola; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows
Mr. Serhan Cevik
This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10 percent rise in confirmed cases leads to a reduction of as much as 9 percent in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.
Keywords:
WP; infectious disease; yellow fever
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Sierra Leone: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper aims to measure the impact of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic on economic growth in Sierra Leone. A novel empirical approach is used, which is based on a Difference in Differences setup, called the Synthetic Control Method. The model suggests that EVD had a severe impact on growth. In 2014, the first year EVD hit the country, the impact on real growth excluding iron ore is estimated to be more than 5 percentage points. It is suggested that in outer years, the severity of the impact will lessen, and growth will converge to its normal path by 2018.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; export; diversification; estimate; EVD epidemic; growth path; IMF diversification toolkit; export destination; iron ore export; Export diversification; Fiscal risks; Ebola; Exports; Contingent liabilities; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of NonObservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing and Extension of the Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Liberia’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC), Modification of PC, and Rephasing and Extension of the Arrangement. The end-June 2014 quantitative PC on government revenues and central bank net foreign exchange position, and one indicative target on net domestic assets were not met. Only three out of seven structural benchmarks for the fourth review were met. Based on the authorities’ corrective actions, the IMF staff supports completion of the delayed fourth ECF review, and the authorities’ request for an extension and re-phasing of the program to end-December 2016.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; Ebola crisis; real GDP; ECF arrangement; post Ebola shock; IMF's Executive Board; Ebola epidemic; Ebola; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Debt sustainability analysis; West Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review, Requests for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria, and Requests for Rephasing and Augmentation of Access Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Sierra Leone’s Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review, Requests for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC) and Modification of PC. Program implementation has been good, notwithstanding the shocks that the economy has experienced. Despite missing several end-2014 PCs, owing to the Ebola outbreak, authorities have placed policies back on track. All end-June 2015 PCs, as well as most structural benchmarks, have been observed. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ requests for waivers, as well as for additional financing from the IMF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; SDR; disbursement of SDR; financing; Executive Board's discussion; BSL operation; exchange rate; financial asset; debt service; Ebola; Commercial banks; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Staff Report and Press Release
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Liberia’s Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). From mid-2014 to mid-2015, Liberia faced a serious Ebola virus disease crisis, which triggered the declaration of a state of emergency. End-June 2014 performance criteria (PCs) and indicative targets were met, except the revenue floor and the floor net foreign exchange position of the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL), and the ceiling on net domestic assets. The authorities are expected to request waivers for the missed PCs in light of corrective actions undertaken to improve revenue collection and strengthen the net foreign exchange position of the CBL. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request to extend the ECF arrangement.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Liberia; Ebola virus disease crisis; ECF arrangement; Ebola epidemic; Ebola crisis; position of the CBL; Ebola; Foreign currency exposure; Credit; Integrated financial management information systems
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea: Request for Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment Window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust—Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Request for Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) Window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief (CCR) Trust. Since early 2014, Guinea has been experiencing an ongoing Ebola epidemic that has spread to several countries in the region. The immediate economic effect of the Ebola epidemic has been a pronounced slowdown in 2014. Performance under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement has been satisfactory, the difficult macroeconomic environment notwithstanding. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for assistance under the CC window of the CCR Trust given the nature of the public health disaster, and the ensuing financing needs to contain the disease and rehabilitate Guinea’s public health system.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ebola epidemic; executive board approval; Guinea; spending; poverty reduction goal; response plan; obligations to the fund; Debt relief; Debt service; Ebola; Balance of payments need
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for Augmentation of Access Under the Extended Credit Facility and Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Sierra Leone’s Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review. Economic output is set to contract by some 13 percent in 2015, comprising a decline in non-iron-ore activity of some 2 percent, and a 47 percent slump in iron-ore output as the dominant mining operator is not expected to resume activity until mid-year at the earliest. Policy discussions focused on generating fiscal space to tackle the Ebola emergency and contend with the effects of the slump in iron-ore production and prices. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for significant additional financing from the IMF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; authority; financial support; ECF fund; SDR; Ebola outbreak; Sierra Leonean authorities; financing gap; Ebola crisis; Ebola; Debt relief; Monetary statistics; Global; Africa; Middle East; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Liberia’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief (CCR) Trust. Economic activity has declined significantly, and fiscal and external financing needs are more pronounced than envisaged at the time of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) augmentation. The authorities remain committed to the broad objectives of the ECF program. The IMF staff recommends approval of the authorities’ requests for a disbursement under the RCF and debt relief under the CCR Trust given the extensive economic damage caused by the Ebola outbreak and based on the authorities’ updated policy intentions and commitments.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ebola outbreak; financing; financing gap; authority; spending priority; Ebola crisis; Ebola epidemic; Ebola; Budget planning and preparation; Imports; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea: Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for an Augmentation of Access and Extension of the Current Arrangement
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for an Augmentation of Access and Extension of Current Arrangement. Performance under the ECF program has been satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria have been met. Macroeconomic policies in 2015 will remain supportive to help deal with the Ebola outbreak. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement and financing assurances review and requests for an extension of the current arrangement to end-2015, an augmentation in access, and disbursement of 25 percent of quota as budget support under the 5th review.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt relief; debt; Guinean authorities; financing; poverty reduction goal; ECF arrangement; Ebola epidemic; disbursement of SDR; Ebola crisis; Ebola; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa