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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Guyanese economy continues to experience record growth, supported by the government’s modernization plans and unparalleled oil and gas sector expansion. Guyana’s oil reserves per capita are one of the highest in the world. Going forward, oil production will continue to expand rapidly as four new fields will come on stream by end-2028. Sustained real non-oil gross domestic product growth is also expected, as the government continues to invest in human capital, lower energy costs, and build infrastructure, including for climate change adaptation. On the upside, further oil discoveries would continue to improve Guyana’s long-term economic prospects and a construction boom would support higher short-term growth than projected. The main downside risks are overheating, leading to inflationary pressures and appreciation of the real exchange rate beyond the level implied by a balanced expansion of the economy. Policy discussions focused on the authorities’ ambitious plans to rapidly transform Guyana using revenues from oil extraction, while ensuring macroeconomic and financial stability, mitigating risks, and adapting to climate change.
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
International oil producers have discovered commercially recoverable petroleum reserves of around 11 billion barrels that promise to transform Guyana's agricultural and mining economy into an oil powerhouse, while hopefully helping to diversify the non-oil economy. Oil production presents a momentous opportunity to boost inclusive growth and diversify the economy providing resources to address human development needs and infrastructure gaps. At the same time, it presents important policy challenges relating to effective and prudent management of the nation’s oil wealth. This study focusses on one of these challenges: the appropriate monetary policy and exchange rate framework for Guyana as it transitions to a major oil exporter.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Following the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, economic growth recovered in 2021, with non-oil GDP growth reaching 4.6 percent, despite being negatively impacted by floods. Inflation increased markedly since 2021 owing to the floods and supply-side disruptions, as well as continually rising fuel and food prices. Oil production increased and will ramp up substantially over the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume documents decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as documents relating to the United Nations and other international organizations.