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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Guinea-Bissau continues to face a challenging economic and political environment. Recent downward shocks to cashew exports are adding pressures to the balance of payments and fiscal revenue. Tightening of regional financial conditions continue to raise borrowing costs. Since the political crisis in December 2023, underlying social tension has been high, and the next legislative election has been postponed to complete preparatory steps required by law. Despite these challenges, growth has been resilient, supported by strong public and private investments, and high producer prices of cashew nuts due to increased competition among exporters and strengthened securities measures. Risks to the outlook remain tilted towards the downside.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
A Guiné-Bissau continua a enfrentar conjunturas internas e internacionais muito desafiadoras. Continuam a fazer-se sentir choques nos termos de troca, ao mesmo tempo que o aumento da restritividade das condições financeiras na região tem provocado uma subida acentuada dos custos dos empréstimos. Desde a crise política, em dezembro de 2023, a tensão social subjacente tem-se mantido elevada. As próximas eleições legislativas terão lugar a 24 de novembro de 2024. Apesar destes desafios, as autoridades têm mantido a estabilidade política e económica. A campanha de exportação de castanha-de-caju tem avançado ordeiramente. Prevê-se que o crescimento recupere, mas os riscos para as perspetivas continuam a exibir uma tendência negativa.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Guinea-Bissau’s Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and financing assurances review. The authorities’ commitment to a range of challenging policy reforms is starting to show some results. They should persevere with their ambitious structural reform agenda to improve domestic revenue mobilization, strengthen expenditure controls, and enhance governance. Economic growth is expected to reach 5 percent in 2024, while inflation should slow to 4.2 percent compared to 7.2 percent in 2023. However, the economic outlook remains subject to significant near-term risks. Fiscal consolidation remains critical to reduce vulnerabilities and ensure debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. This should be underpinned by strict rationalization of nonpriority expenditure and revenue mobilization. The authorities are implementing structural reforms which are pivotal to the program’s success. Urgent actions should be taken to mitigate fiscal risks from the public utility company. The authorities should also continue advancing the disengagement of the undercapitalized bank, including through contingency planning.