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Africa > Equatorial Guinea, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s recovery gained momentum in 2022, supported by higher hydrocarbon prices. The external position strengthened, with a rapid foreign reserve build-up, though still below adequate levels. The recent weakening in external buffers will require more forceful action to tighten liquidity conditions, greater compliance of member countries with foreign exchange regulations and stronger fiscal discipline. Underlying non-oil fiscal positions, however, also deteriorated, stressing the need for accelerating structural reforms, addressing recent fiscal slippages, and bringing polices back in line with Fund-supported program objectives and staff advice. This will be critical to strengthen the region’s resilience to hydrocarbon prices volatility, financial instability, entrenched inflation, tighter financial conditions, food insecurity, domestic conflicts and insecurity, and climate-related events.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC): Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale-Politiques communes en appui aux programmes de réforme des pays membres; Rapport des services du FMI; et déclaration de l’administrateur
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
En 2022, l’évolution des cours des hydrocarbures a été favorable à la CEMAC. La reprise économique s’est raffermie et la position extérieure s’est renforcée, l’accumulation de réserves extérieures s’étant accélérée ces derniers mois, quoique demeurant en deçà des niveaux adéquats. La politique monétaire a été resserrée afin d’endiguer l’inflation, et les positions budgétaires se sont améliorées sous l’effet de l’augmentation des recettes pétrolières. Toutefois, les positions budgétaires hors pétrole sous-jacentes se sont détériorées, nécessitant d’accélérer les réformes et de corriger les dérapages budgétaires récents afin de contribuer à épargner une partie du surcroît de recettes pétrolières et de ramener les politiques publiques en ligne avec les objectifs des programmes appuyés par le FMI et les conseils des services du FMI. Cela permettrait de faire plus efficacement face aux facteurs de risques, notamment la volatilité des cours des hydrocarbures, l’insécurité alimentaire, l’instabilité financière, les poussées inflationnistes, le resserrement des conditions de financements et les vulnérabilités liées à la dette.
Keywords:
CEMAC country; inflation expectation; policy mix coherence; CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; CEMAC heads of state conference; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries
Mr. Luc Eyraud, William Gbohoui, and Mr. Paulo A Medas
This paper revisits the debate on the design of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries. Its main objective is to assess alternative systems of rules against their policy objectives, while taking into account country characteristics. One of the contributions of the paper is to propose fiscal frameworks that are centered around the principle of insurance against shocks and less reliant on estimating precisely resource wealth, which tends to be highly volatile.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Rules; Non-Renewable resources; Resource Funds; Nonrenewable Resource Exporting Countries; resource wealth; personal income hypothesis; financial assets floor; IMF working paper 23/230; net financial assets; policy objective; resource revenue; Natural resources; Commodity prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Central African Economic and Monetary Community’s (CEMAC) common policies in support of member countries reform programs. CEMAC benefited from favorable hydrocarbon prices in 2022. Economic recovery firmed up and the external position strengthened, with external reserves building up faster in recent months, although still below adequate levels. Monetary policy was tightened to stem rising inflation, and fiscal positions improved owing to higher oil revenues. However, underlying non-oil fiscal positions deteriorated, highlighting the necessity of accelerating reforms and tackling recent fiscal slippages, to help save part of the oil windfalls and bring polices back in line with IMF-supported program objectives and IMF staff advice. The report recommends standing ready to tighten monetary policy further; mop up excess liquidity; and resolve pending challenges to a complete, transparent, and consistent implementation of the foreign exchange regulations. It also suggests accelerating governance and productivity-enhancing structural and regulatory reforms; broaden the tax base beyond the hydrocarbon sector; and deepen regional trade integration.
Keywords:
CEMAC country; inflation expectation; policy mix coherence; CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; CEMAC heads of state conference; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Staff Report on the Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Central African Economic and Monetary Community’s (CEMAC) IMF Staff report on Common Policies of Member Countries and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs. The positive terms-of-trade shock amidst the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine has broadly benefited CEMAC, reinforcing its external position and gradual post-pandemic recovery. Regional authorities tightened monetary policy and normalized prudential regulation in 2022, while continuing to advance the reform agenda. Global inflation pressures have passed through to domestic prices, putting pressure on real incomes. Rebuilding buffers and sustaining a recovery that protects the most vulnerable will require stricter adherence to budget and reform plans consistent with IMF-supported programs and policy advice; this will ensure that part of the oil windfall is saved. Implementation of these policies in current favorable conditions is critical to strengthening resilience in the face of rising risks, including most notably to food security, debt vulnerabilities, and tightening of global financial conditions. A prudent management of the oil windfall and faster progress on deep structural and governance reforms are pivotal for laying the foundations for a more diversified, inclusive, and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; IMF article; CEMAC country; consultation discussion; CEMAC member country; Oil prices; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Liquidity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
CEMAC ended 2021 in a fragile external position, with gross reserves at only 2.7 months of prospective imports and net foreign assets (NFA) at their lowest level in decades, despite the availability of Fund financing, the SDR allocation, and monetary policy tightening. The terms of trade shock this year is expected to be broadly positive for CEMAC. This more favorable outlook is, however, subject to heightened external uncertainties associated with the fallout from the war in Ukraine (notably global inflation pressure, global growth uncertainties, and high oil price volatility), faster-than-anticipated global financial tightening, possible emergence of new COVID strains and risks from cryptoassets. Current high oil prices, if sustained, will help rebuild fiscal and external buffers, provided fiscal policies remain prudent. Shielding vulnerable populations from soaring energy and food prices adds to the complexity of navigating this uncertain environment, given CEMAC’s already limited policy options.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; liquidity management framework; CEMAC member states; recapitalization procedure; monetary policy tightening; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Liquidity; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release, Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Despite a more favorable external environment, marked by the rebound in global growth, fast-increasing oil prices, and unprecedented Fund financial support, CEMAC is ending 2021 in a fragile external position. Net external reserves fell throughout 2021 to reach their lowest level in decades, and gross reserves are just above three months of imports of goods and services. The launch of a second phase of the regional strategy at the August 2021 CEMAC Heads of States summit saw renewed commitments to accelerate structural, transparency, and governance reforms. The resumption of program engagements with the Fund, combined with high oil prices and significant fiscal adjustments in 2022, should allow for a turnaround, and the build-up in external reserves is expected to resume in 2022. Risks include possible adverse pandemic developments, oil price volatility, possible fiscal slippages, shortfall in external financing, and security issues.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; CEMAC country; policy measure; CEMAC member country; further policy commitment; fiscal consolidation policy; Liquidity; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Monetary base; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Equatorial Guinea: 2022 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; And Statement By The Executive Director for Republic of Equatorial Guinea
International Monetary Fund
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21, and Bata explosions in 2021, struck oil-exporter Equatorial Guinea at a time when its economic vulnerabilities had already been aggravated by a prolonged period of depressed hydrocarbon prices, and seven consecutive years of decline in real GDP. The economy is slowly emerging from the ravages of the 2020-21 shocks, buoyed by higher international oil prices. However, substantial challenges remain: (i) surging food prices and banking sector vulnerabilities cloud the short term, while (ii) declining hydrocarbon productionand the implied decline in external reservesloom over the medium term, especially in light of lagging governance and diversification reform implementation.
Keywords:
asset declaration; audit report; gradual ease; headline inflation; Equatorial Guinea's NFA; Oil prices; Commercial banks; External sector statistics; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa; Arrears
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Equatorial Guinea: 2022 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; And Statement By The Executive Director for Republic of Equatorial Guinea
International Monetary Fund
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21, and Bata explosions in 2021, struck oil-exporter Equatorial Guinea at a time when its economic vulnerabilities had already been aggravated by a prolonged period of depressed hydrocarbon prices, and seven consecutive years of decline in real GDP. The economy is slowly emerging from the ravages of the 2020-21 shocks, buoyed by higher international oil prices. However, substantial challenges remain: (i) surging food prices and banking sector vulnerabilities cloud the short term, while (ii) declining hydrocarbon productionand the implied decline in external reservesloom over the medium term, especially in light of lagging governance and diversification reform implementation.
Keywords:
asset declaration; audit report; gradual ease; headline inflation; Equatorial Guinea's NFA; Oil prices; Commercial banks; External sector statistics; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa; Arrears
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations
Berkay Akyapi, Mr. Matthieu Bellon, and Emanuele Massetti
A growing literature estimates the macroeconomic effect of weather using variations in annual country-level averages of temperature and precipitation. However, averages may not reveal the effects of extreme events that occur at a higher time frequency or higher spatial resolution. To address this issue, we rely on global daily weather measurements with a 30-km spatial resolution from 1979 to 2019 and construct 164 weather variables and their lags. We select a parsimonious subset of relevant weather variables using an algorithm based on the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. We also expand the literature by analyzing weather impacts on government revenue, expenditure, and debt, in addition to GDP per capita. We find that an increase in the occurrence of high temperatures and droughts reduce GDP, whereas more frequent mild temperatures have a positive impact. The share of GDP variations that is explained by weather as captured by the handful of our selected variables is much higher than what was previously implied by using annual temperature and precipitation averages. We also find evidence of counter-cyclical fiscal policies that mitigate adverse weather shocks, especially excessive or unusually low precipitation episodes.
Keywords:
climate; extreme weather; macro economy; big data; weather variable; weather shock; OLS estimation outcome; climate variable; weather data sources; Natural disasters; Climate change; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Asia; East Africa; GDP effect; weather observation