Africa > Equatorial Guinea, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 139 items for

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Despite a more favorable external environment, marked by the rebound in global growth, fast-increasing oil prices, and unprecedented Fund financial support, CEMAC is ending 2021 in a fragile external position. Net external reserves fell throughout 2021 to reach their lowest level in decades, and gross reserves are just above three months of imports of goods and services. The launch of a second phase of the regional strategy at the August 2021 CEMAC Heads of States summit saw renewed commitments to accelerate structural, transparency, and governance reforms. The resumption of program engagements with the Fund, combined with high oil prices and significant fiscal adjustments in 2022, should allow for a turnaround, and the build-up in external reserves is expected to resume in 2022. Risks include possible adverse pandemic developments, oil price volatility, possible fiscal slippages, shortfall in external financing, and security issues.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Context and risks. The pandemic may have a long-lasting impact on CEMAC’s growth potential, which is already curtailed by structural, governance, and transparency issues. The policy response from national and regional authorities in 2020 helped mitigate the economic fallout. CEMAC, however, experienced a severe recession in 2020, fiscal and external deficits increased, and public debt rose with some countries having debt sustainability issues. The region is facing an increasing dilemma between internal and external stability, as external reserves fell sharply between mid-2020 and March 2021. A moderate recovery in economic growth is expected from 2021. Supported by lower than previously projected total external financing of €4.8 billion over 2021–23, international reserves build-up would be slower than pre-pandemic. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and the vaccination program. Other significant risks include delayed implementation of the ongoing or possible new Fund-supported programs, uncertainties in filling large external financing needs, oil prices, and a possible deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Context and risks. The pandemic may have a long-lasting impact on CEMAC’s growth potential, which is already curtailed by structural, governance, and transparency issues. The policy response from national and regional authorities in 2020 helped mitigate the economic fallout. CEMAC, however, experienced a severe recession in 2020, fiscal and external deficits increased, and public debt rose with some countries having debt sustainability issues. The region is facing an increasing dilemma between internal and external stability, as external reserves fell sharply between mid-2020 and March 2021. A moderate recovery in economic growth is expected from 2021. Supported by lower than previously projected total external financing of €4.8 billion over 2021–23, international reserves build-up would be slower than pre-pandemic. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and the vaccination program. Other significant risks include delayed implementation of the ongoing or possible new Fund-supported programs, uncertainties in filling large external financing needs, oil prices, and a possible deterioration in the security situation.
Mr. Amine Mati, Ms. Monique Newiak, and James Wilson
This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.