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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Since the approval of the first RFI request on April 9, 2020 (IMF Country Report No 20/109), weaker external demand and a more pronounced impact of containment measures have further deteriorated growth prospects and worsened external and fiscal positions. The authorities are requesting a purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of 50 percent of quota (SDR 108 million) to be used as budget support to help address urgent balance of payment (BoP) needs and mitigate the risk of disorderly fiscal or BoP adjustment. This additional request will bring the total purchases under the RFI to 100 percent of quota in 2020.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Since the approval of the first RFI request on April 9, 2020 (IMF Country Report No 20/109), weaker external demand and a more pronounced impact of containment measures have further deteriorated growth prospects and worsened external and fiscal positions. The authorities are requesting a purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of 50 percent of quota (SDR 108 million) to be used as budget support to help address urgent balance of payment (BoP) needs and mitigate the risk of disorderly fiscal or BoP adjustment. This additional request will bring the total purchases under the RFI to 100 percent of quota in 2020.
International Monetary Fund
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a uniquely severe synchronized shock across the global economy, in turn leading numerous member countries to request substantial financial assistance from the Fund. The Executive Board responded to members’ needs by increasing the access limits under the Fund’s emergency financing instruments by 50 percent of quota for a period of 6 months (until October 5, 2020), subject to a possible extension by the Executive Board.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
In response to a request from the Gabonese authorities, a mission from the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF visited Libreville to conduct an evaluation of public investment management, using the Public Investment Management Assessment methodology. The report highlights that enhancing the efficiency of public investment is essential, given Gabon’s current budget constraints. Improving public investment management (PIM) should help stem the declines in public investment efficiency in Gabon. In terms of infrastructure quality, public investment efficiency has fallen to half of the expected optimal level, compared to a 20 percent decline both worldwide and in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as a 31 percent decline in member states of the Central African Economic and Monetary Union. The findings of the PIM assessment reveal structural deficiencies in planning procedures and institutional arrangements. Eight recommendations are put forward to enhance PIM efficiency in the short and medium terms, with three urgent steps needed to rationalize planning.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The development of infrastructure is one of the pillars of the Emerging Gabon Strategic Plan (PSGE). Implemented as of 2012, the PSGE has been establishing priority strategic guidelines to transform Gabon into an emerging economy by 2025. Its primary aims are to ensure and expedite the country’s sustainable development and growth by focusing on potential growth sectors. Public investment grew continuously from 2009 to 2013, when it peaked at 15.2 percent of GDP; it averaged 5.7 percent growth from 1990 to 2018. At the same time, private investment declined, as did growth and public capital stock. These outcomes indicate that public investment in Gabon does not drive growth and that investment expenditure does not automatically translate into actual accumulation of assets, which raises questions about the efficiency of those outlays.