Xiangming Fang, Siddharth Kothari, Mr. Cameron McLoughlin, and Mustafa Yenice
Sub-Saharan Africa has been marred by conflicts during the past several decades. While the intensity of conflicts in recent years is lower than that observed in the 1990s, the region remains prone to conflicts, with around 30 percent of the countries affected in 2019. In addition to immeasurable human suffering, conflicts impose large economic costs. On average, annual growth in countries in intense conflicts is about 2.5 percentage points lower, and the cumulative impact on per capita GDP increases over time. Furthermore, conflicts pose significant strains on countries’ public finances, lowering revenue, raising military spending, and shifting resources away from development and social spending.
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept., International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept., and International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
This paper proposes a further six-month extension of the period for members to consent to an increase in their quotas under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas ("Fourteenth Review") through June 28, 2019.
In line with a framework introduced in 2012 for addressing excessive delays in the completion of Article IV consultations, the following table lists the IMF members for which the Article IV consultation has been delayed by more than 18 months at March 15, 2016. The delay is counted past the stipulated date for the consultation plus any applicable grace period. There are no countries for which the mandatory financial stability assessments are delayed by more than 18 months at March 15, 2016.
The HIPC Initiative and MDRI are nearly complete, with 36 countries having already reached the completion point under the HIPC Initiative. Chad, in April 2015, is the latest country to reach the completion point. Debt relief under the Initiative has alleviated debt burdens substantially in recipient countries and has enabled them to increase their poverty-reducing expenditure by over one and a half percentage points of GDP between 2001 and 2014.
Creditor participation in the HIPC Initiative has been strong amongst the multilateral and Paris Club creditors; however participation from other creditor groups still needs to be strengthened. The total cost of debt relief to creditors under the HIPC Initiative is currently estimated to be US$74.8 billion, while the costs to the four multilateral creditors providing relief under the MDRI is estimated at US$41.6 billion in end-2014 present value terms.
This Staff Report Lists IMF Member Countries with Delays in Completion of Article IV Consultations over 18 Months or Mandatory Financial Stability Assessment over 18 Months, prepared by IMF staff and completed on January 28, 2015.
The following table lists the IMF member countries for which the Article IV consultation or the mandatory financial stability assessment has been delayed by more than 18 months. The delay is counted past the scheduled expected date for conclusion, plus any applicable grace period.
The overall fiscal position improved and the reduction in domestic arrears was triple the program target. The direct impact of the global financial crisis on Djibouti has been limited. The financial system has not been affected by the global crisis, and capital adequacy has improved slightly despite increased competition. GDP growth remained strong in 2008, and inflation decelerated during the fourth quarter. The risk of external debt distress remains high. Banks remain profitable and have not been affected by the global financial crisis.
This paper presents a methodology to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The limited data set hinders single-country estimation for most countries in the sample, but panel estimates are statistically and economically significant, and generally robust to different estimation techniques. The results replicate well the historical experience for a number of countries in the sample. Panel techniques can also be used to derive out of sample estimates for countries with a more limited data set.
This paper presents an Ex Post Assessment of Long-Term IMF Engagement in Ethiopia. IMF involvement since 1992 helped underpin the authorities’ gradualist policies. Initially, IMF-supported programs aimed at stabilizing the economy and breaking with the legacy of central planning. Later programs emphasized structural reform to support sustainable high growth and poverty reduction. Although macroeconomic stability has been largely achieved, structural reform was gradual and piecemeal, especially under the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility. Many of the most immediate and distortionary policies of the centrally planned past have also been overhauled.
The paper examines fiscal sustainability issues for the case of Eritrea but has wider implications for addressing fiscal and debt sustainability. It begins with a formal definition and explanation of analytical sustainability indicators, followed by an assessment of the causes of fiscal deficits and their impact on the usual indicators of fiscal and external debt sustainability. The paper then goes beyond the usual analytical indicators by attempting to identify how and through which channels fiscal and other economic policies have affected the behavior of endogenous variables that in one way or another influence sustainability.