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Western Hemisphere > Dominica

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Growth decelerated marginally in 2017, as the continued decline in CBI inflows slowed growth in construction. Consumer inflation was low, partly due to a small contraction in food prices. The overall fiscal balance remained in surplus but has deteriorated markedly since its 2013- peak, and the debt-to-GDP ratio increased marginally from the previous year. The current account deficit remains high and only marginally declined in 2017, as the decline in CBI receipts was more than offset by growing tourism receipts and a significant decrease in imports. Foreign reserves at the ECCB remained at comfortable levels, well above the various reserve-adequacy metrics. The banking sector has reported capital and liquidity ratios that are well above the regulatory minimum but has elevated NPLs and risks, including delays in completing the debt-land swap arrangement and loss of Corresponding Banking Relationships (CBRs).
Keywords:
SKN government; SKN economy; CBI program; NPL resolution strategy; due diligence; Commercial banks; Public sector; Government finance statistics; Credit; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2019 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s 2019 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). ECCU’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated from 3/4 percent in 2017 to 3 3/4 percent in 2018, reflecting buoyancy in the tourism sector, sizable Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) inflows, and a recovery from the 2017 hurricanes in Anguilla and Dominica, which were supported by large public investments in reconstruction. Fiscal deficits increased in 2018–2019, but they have remained moderate. Efforts are needed to streamline, and re-balance tax incentives based on clear principles consistent with international best practices. External imbalances are sizable and significant financial sector vulnerabilities affect both banks and non-banks. Growth is projected to gradually moderate toward its long-term average of 2 1/4 percent as the cyclical momentum normalizes and CBI inflows ease. These trends would also contribute to wider fiscal deficits, ending the downward drift in public debt dynamics. The outlook is clouded by downside risks, including a possible intensification of natural disasters and financial sector weaknesses.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; ECCB authority; e-government platform; ECCU price aggregate; article IV consultation discussion; ECCU region; ECCU country; ECCU work program; Digital currencies; Natural disasters; Tax incentives; Credit bureaus; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU
Mr. Balazs Csonto
,
Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Emefa Sewordor
This paper applies network analysis to assess the extent of systemic vulnerabilities in the ECCU banking system. It includes two sets of illustrative stress tests. First, solvency and liquidity shocks to each individual bank and the impact on other banks in the network through their biltareal net asset exposures. Second, country and region-wide tail shocks to GDP affecting capital and liquidity of all banks in the shocked jurisdictions, followed by the rippling effects through the regional network. The results identify systemic institutions that merit hightened attention by the regulator, as determined by the degree of connectivity with the rest of the system, and the extent to which they are vulnerable to the failure of other banks.
Keywords:
WP; bank; ECCU; capital; asset; incorporated bank; F34; G21; ECCU bank; bank capital; defaulted claim; liquidity holding; portfolios diversification opportunity; bank exposure; bank institution; creditor bank; remains high; bank assets; bank network analysis; Commercial banks; Nonperforming loans; Distressed institutions; Credit; Market risk; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Program Design in Currency Unions
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
,
Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Despite a long history of program engagement, the Fund has not developed guidance on program design in members of currency unions. The Fund has engaged with members of the four currency unions—the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, the European Monetary Union, and the West African Economic and Monetary Union—under Fund-supported programs. In some cases, union-wide institutions supported their members in undertaking adjustment under Fund-supported programs. As such, several programs incorporated—on an ad hoc basis—critical policy actions that union members had delegated. Providing general guidance on program design for members in a currency union context would fill a gap in Fund policy and help ensure consistent, transparent, and evenhanded treatment across Fund-supported programs. This paper considers two options on when and how the Fund should seek policy assurances from union-level institutions in programs of currency union members. Option 1 would involve amending the Conditionality Guidelines, which would allow the use of standard conditionality tools with respect to actions by union-level institutions. Option 2—which staff prefers—proposes formalizing current practices and providing general guidance regarding principles and modalities on policy assurances from union-level institutions in support of members’ adjustment programs. Neither option would infringe upon the independence (or legally-provided autonomy) of union-level institutions, since the institutions would decide what measures or policy actions to take—just as any independent central bank or monetary authority does, for example, in non-CU members.
Keywords:
PP; monetary policy; euro; policy; director; BCEAO; Fund; ECB financing; policy assurance; ECB policy measure; management team; institutions play; Monetary unions; Balance of payments need; Liquidity; Commercial banks; Balance of payments deficits; West Africa; Europe; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic performance of St. Kitts and Nevis moderated in 2016. Growth moderated, reflecting the deceleration in tourism-linked sectors and contraction in manufacturing output, while still exceeding the average growth in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union region. Consumer inflation was negative, reflecting the favorable tax environment and low international fuel prices, but end-year inflation turned positive as these effects started to subside. Growth is expected to average at about 3 percent in the medium term. Inflation is projected to rise with the expected rise in fuel prices, remaining about 2 percent in the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBI inflow; consumer inflation; w CBI fee; inflow; SIDF grant; oil-price weakness; correspondent banking risk; Fiscal stance; Public sector; External sector statistics; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2017 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses key points of 2017 Discussions on Common Policies of Member Countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Favorable external conditions continue to support economic recovery in the ECCU, but flat tourism receipts and falling revenues from citizenship programs have weakened growth. The fiscal position has deteriorated slightly, and public debt remains high. Despite progress on financial sector reform, bank lending continues to decline while indigenous banks’ profitability is adversely impacted by increasing costs to secure correspondent banking relationships. The short-term outlook is favorable and risks are broadly balanced, but strong structural policies are needed to address impediments to medium-term growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECCU country; cost; legislation; director; country authorities; growth prospect; reducing cost; financing arrangement; tourism inflow; Natural disasters; Fiscal rules; Credit bureaus; Credit; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU: Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Shernnel Thompson
This paper assesses the determinants of NPLs in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and whether a deterioration in asset quality may result in negative feedback effects from the banking system to economic activity. The results suggest that the deterioration in asset quality can be attributed to both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. Banks with stronger profitability and lower exposure to the construction sector and household loans tend to have lower NPLs. Further, some evidence indicates that foreign owned banks systematically have lower NPLs than domestic banks, pointing to the presence of important differences across bank practices with an impact on asset quality. Finally, the results emphasize the strength of macrofinancial feedback loops in the ECCU.
Keywords:
WP; asset quality; NPL ratio; real GDP; dummy variable; Macrofinancial linkages; non-performing loans; credit growth; feedback effects; force bank; return on assets; ownership structure; economic activity; coverage data sets; bank asset quality; resolution process; Nonperforming loans; Foreign banks; Credit; Loans; Commercial banks; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2016 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This IMF Staff Report for the 2016 Discussion on Common Policies of Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) Member Countries highlights that the regional recovery in ECCU is gaining ground, supported by continued low oil prices, strong tourism arrivals, and robust citizenship-by-investment receipts. Risks to the near-term outlook are balanced, but growth in the ECCU continues to be hindered by weak competitiveness, banking sector fragilities, susceptibility to natural disasters, and large public debt. The Executive Directors have encouraged the authorities to press ahead with sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to decisively address these issues and strengthen the conditions for robust long term growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Anguilla CARTAC; country authorities; ECCU; aggregate; discussion; ECCU price aggregate; ECCU well; FAD tax mission; ECCU aggregate; CARTAC framework; Natural disasters; Commercial banks; Interest rate parity; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economy of St. Kitts and Nevis continued its strong growth at about 5 percent, recording the strongest growth in the region during 2013–15. Strong growth has been underpinned by construction and tourism sector activity and their favorable spillovers on the rest of the economy, supported by surging inflows from its Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) program. Large CBI inflows continued in 2015, albeit at a slower pace. The medium-term outlook is positive, but remains dependent on developments in CBI inflows. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.5 percent in 2016 and 3 percent, on average, over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBI inflow; Citizenship-by-Investment; CBI program; construction activity; SIDF grant; CBI receipts; CBI flow; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Dominica
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Dominican economy was hit hard by tropical storm Erika in 2015. Agricultural output and manufacturing declined sharply, as the storm affected crops and access to arable land, and prompted the closure of operations of the main industrial plant. Inflation has remained subdued, mainly as a result of falling fuel prices. Notwithstanding weak exports of agriculture and tourism, the 2015 current account deficit remained contained on the back of lower oil imports. Output growth is expected to remain subdued in 2016 at 1.3 percent as the economy slowly recovers from the storm and investment in reconstruction picks up.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECP revenue; financing constraint; authority; ECP; expenditure projection; budget proposal; budget projection; Fiscal consolidation; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Caribbean