Western Hemisphere > Dominica

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Mr. Benedicte Baduel
and
Mr. Robert T Price
The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines the staff report for Dominica’s Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility. Dominica has been hit by a number of natural disasters during July–September 2011. Although the impact on growth may be limited owing to the localized nature of the damage, the disasters will have large fiscal and balance of payment costs as the government undertakes the necessary rehabilitation work, including relocation of people from the affected areas. Medium-term prospects remain subdued owing to lack of clear growth drivers, with potential growth estimated at about 2 percent.
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of St. Vincent and the Grenadines is enjoying its second year of vigorous economic growth. Financial sector indicators have strengthened, but balance sheet vulnerabilities remain. Executive Directors have welcomed St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ recent strong macroeconomic performance, marked by robust economic growth, fiscal consolidation, and declining debt levels. Directors have also stressed that continued fiscal consolidation is needed to lower the public debt-to-GDP ratio, and create room to raise social spending.
International Monetary Fund
Dominica was struck by Hurricane Dean during August 16–17, 2007. A recent earthquake also underscores the vulnerability of the economy to natural disasters. Output growth slowed during the first half of 2007 as tourist arrivals stagnated across the region. Inflation was 3½ percent in July, reflecting higher energy and imported food prices. Structural reforms have continued after the expiration of the poverty reduction growth facility (PRGF) arrangement. The fiscal impact of the hurricane would be largely on the expenditure side.
International Monetary Fund
A 12-month Stand-By Arrangement was approved to help Dominica deal with external shocks, rising public debt, and a prolonged economic downturn. Discussions focused on the appropriate mix between adjustment and financing. The authorities will also continue to strengthen the public sector investment program (PSIP) and the social safety net. Dominica's debt dynamics present an important challenge that will require continued fiscal efforts and exceptional financial support. In light of the proposed strengthened program and decisive ownership, the IMF staff recommends completion of the first review and extension of the arrangement.