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Western Hemisphere > Dominica

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2022 Article IV Consultation with Member Countries on Common Policies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that with Eastern Caribbean Currency Union economies slowly emerging from the pandemic with scars, the impact of the war in Ukraine is a setback to the nascent recovery. Higher food and energy prices, amid ongoing supply disruptions and intra-regional transportation bottlenecks, are raising inflation, eroding income, lowering output growth, worsening fiscal and external positions, and threatening food and energy security. The financial system has remained broadly stable so far, with adequate capital and liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans remain high and could rise further following the expiration of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank’s loan moratoria program. The outlook is subject to large downside risks, primarily from further increases in commodity prices and new coronavirus disease variants amid vaccine hesitancy, in addition to the ever-present threat of natural disasters. The report recommends that maintaining fiscal prudence while protecting the vulnerable through health spending and temporary targeted transfers and enhanced social safety nets to cope with rising living costs. Adopting well-designed rule-based fiscal frameworks would help achieve fiscal consolidation, enhance resilience to shocks such as natural disasters, and preserve the credibility of the regional debt target.
Keywords:
ECCU economy; ECCU member country; ECCU country; ECCU member states; ECCU region; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global; Climate change; Loans
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2021 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.
Keywords:
ECCU economy; ECCU member states; ECCU country; ECCU price aggregate; headline indicator; COVID-19; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Tourism; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2018 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 discussion on common policies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) highlights that the member countries are gradually recovering following the catastrophic impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Conditions remain favorable to growth, however, risks are increasing. The fiscal balance for the region as a whole worsened in 2017, reflecting lower inflows from citizenship-by-investment programs and higher reconstruction and current spending. The IMF team made several policy recommendations including shifting focus from the current emphasis on recovery from natural disasters to building ex-ante resilience. The report also recommends intensifying decisive and timely actions to resolve weaknesses in the financial sector, including longstanding problems in the banking sector and emerging risks in the non-banking sector. The authorities expressed commitment to the acceleration of key reforms to upgrade and strengthen the financial sector regional oversight framework. In addition to fiscal consolidation, injecting new vigor into the structural policy agenda will help enhance competitiveness and make growth more inclusive.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECCU country; ECCU price aggregate; Cartac; ECCU debt target; ECCU authority; ECCU region; ECCU work program; ECCU aggregate; Natural disasters; Insurance; Nonperforming loans; Credit bureaus; Caribbean; Global; staff advice; IMF's transparency policy; IMF's article
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that in 2018, Dominica’s output is projected to decline by 14 percent and to take about 5 years to recover to pre-hurricane levels. The fall in output and government revenue, coupled with increased expenditure for rehabilitation and reconstruction, will lead to a substantial worsening of fiscal and external deficits. However, signs of recovery, particularly in construction and the public sector, have already started to emerge. The risks to the outlook include the budget becoming financially constrained and unable to sustain adequate investment given high debt, limited buffers, weak revenue, and urgent needs for reconstruction spending. Other risks include financial instability stemming from undercapitalization of systemic financial institutions, recurrent natural disasters, and external competitiveness challenges.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Dominica; cost; director; output collapse; recovery spending; costs of reconstruction; category 5 Hurricane Maria; zoning regulation; vulnerability to natural disasters; Natural disasters; Credit bureaus; Public sector; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU
Mr. Balazs Csonto
,
Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Emefa Sewordor
This paper applies network analysis to assess the extent of systemic vulnerabilities in the ECCU banking system. It includes two sets of illustrative stress tests. First, solvency and liquidity shocks to each individual bank and the impact on other banks in the network through their biltareal net asset exposures. Second, country and region-wide tail shocks to GDP affecting capital and liquidity of all banks in the shocked jurisdictions, followed by the rippling effects through the regional network. The results identify systemic institutions that merit hightened attention by the regulator, as determined by the degree of connectivity with the rest of the system, and the extent to which they are vulnerable to the failure of other banks.
Keywords:
WP; bank; ECCU; capital; asset; incorporated bank; F34; G21; ECCU bank; bank capital; defaulted claim; liquidity holding; portfolios diversification opportunity; bank exposure; bank institution; creditor bank; remains high; bank assets; bank network analysis; Commercial banks; Nonperforming loans; Distressed institutions; Credit; Market risk; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU: Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Shernnel Thompson
This paper assesses the determinants of NPLs in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and whether a deterioration in asset quality may result in negative feedback effects from the banking system to economic activity. The results suggest that the deterioration in asset quality can be attributed to both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. Banks with stronger profitability and lower exposure to the construction sector and household loans tend to have lower NPLs. Further, some evidence indicates that foreign owned banks systematically have lower NPLs than domestic banks, pointing to the presence of important differences across bank practices with an impact on asset quality. Finally, the results emphasize the strength of macrofinancial feedback loops in the ECCU.
Keywords:
WP; asset quality; NPL ratio; real GDP; dummy variable; Macrofinancial linkages; non-performing loans; credit growth; feedback effects; force bank; return on assets; ownership structure; economic activity; coverage data sets; bank asset quality; resolution process; Nonperforming loans; Foreign banks; Credit; Loans; Commercial banks; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: 2010 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Supplement and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund
The Dominican economy has been more resilient to the global crisis than other ECCU countries. Executive Directors welcomed the Growth and Social Protection Strategy, which is aimed at fostering growth and reducing poverty while lowering public debt. Directors also welcomed the authorities’ regional approach to address the collapse of the Trinidad and Tobago-based CL Financial Group. They encouraged the authorities to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to respond to external shocks. Directors commended the prudent fiscal policy stance and stressed the importance of strengthening the financial sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; loan; ECCU member authorities; ratio; soundness indicator; economy well; fuel imports; real gross domestic product; consumer price inflation; Loans; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Second Review and Financing Assurances Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Extension of the Arrangement and Rephasing of Purchases Under the Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review and Financing Assurances Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Latvia. The sharp economic downturn is starting to bottom out, although recovery has not yet begun. The authorities have implemented the June 2009 supplementary budget, and met with a wide margin the end-September performance criterion on the adjusted primary balance. The continuous performance criterion on external payments arrears was missed by a small amount, which the authorities expect to resolve soon.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; government liquidity support; end-December performance criterion; financial market condition; Latvia; IMF's support; IMF's financial support; Fiscal stance; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Financial System Stability Assessment, including Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund
This Financial System Stability Assessment on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) reviews overall stability assessment. The fiscal position of the governments in the region has deteriorated sharply in recent years. A source of strength of the ECCU has been the large historical presence of strong foreign banks. However, the structure of the banking industry is changing with the entry of more aggressive regional banks, and the share of privately owned banks has increased. The limited activity of the organized ECCU securities markets reflects the small number of securities available for trading.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; enforcement power; bank auditor; ECCB Acts; bank management; draft contingency plan; ECCB currency arrangement; ECCB faces reputation risk; demand liability; bank affiliate; faces reputation risk; bank regulator; request bank; ECCB act; reputation risk; ECCB reserve; Offshore financial centers; Commercial banks; Loans; Securities; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Statistical Analysis of Banking Performance in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union in the 1990s
Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon
,
Mrs. Ruby Randall
, and
Mr. Oral Williams
Private foreign banks dominate the banking system although their market share declined in the 1990s while that of private indigenous banks increased. The banking system was not concentrated either within or across countries. Stigler’s survivor test indicated that large banks tended to reduce their scale over time. Private foreign and private indigenous banks exhibited similar distributions with respect to operating expenses but private foreign banks were most profitable. High interest rate spreads appeared attributable to higher average costs related to market size and geographic peculiarities.
Keywords:
WP; bank Size; public bank; bank code; ECCB area; banking system; Bank Structure; Competition; Performance; indigenous bank; performance indicator; State-owned banks; Foreign banks; Commercial banks; Loans; Deposit rates; Caribbean