Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Western Hemisphere > Dominica

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Business cycles x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Cycles in the Caribbean
The sharp increase in debt in the Caribbean since the mid-1990s has focused attention on the conduct of fiscal policy in the region. This paper aims to diagnose how fiscal policy has behaved during this period by looking at three main cycles of the economy: the business, election, and natural disaster cycles. Our main findings suggest that fiscal policy has been mostly procyclical in the region, while disasters have been heavily "insured" by foreign transfers. The "when it rains, it pours" phenomena suggested by Kaminsky, Reinhart and Vegh (2004) seems to take place in the Caribbean.
Keywords:
WP; government; ECCU country; Procyclicality; fiscal accounts; natural disasters; Caribbean; ECCU economy; ECCU value; government consumption growth; capital revenue; Fiscal stance; Business cycles
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Climatic and External Shocks
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
and
Mr. Paul Cashin
This paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output-but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. An increase in oil prices (external demand) is contractionary (expansionary), and the effects dissipate up to three years after the shock.
Keywords:
WP; external shock; economy; real interest rate; output fluctuation; open economy; Business cycle; external shocks; VAR; block exogeneity; Eastern Caribbean; oil price shock; ECCU country; economy block; world real interest rate shock; Real interest rates; Oil prices; Natural disasters; Business cycles; Vector autoregression; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) underlies key features of business cycles. To obtain new measures of classical and growth cycles, simple rules were applied to date turning points in the classical business cycle, and a recently developed frequency domain filter was used to estimate the growth cycle. At the regional level, the ECCU countries are facing two shocks, i.e., the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the depreciation of the Dominican Republic’s peso. The countries of the ECCU have experienced modest erosion in their price and nonprice competitiveness.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECCU country; bank; insurance market; growth cycle; public debt to GDP ratio; ECCU bank; Natural disasters; Real exchange rates; Business cycles; Tourism; Caribbean; Global