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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Dominica as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data gaps and improving statistical techniques for travel exports and direct investment to enhance the accuracy of the balance of payments (BOP) and the international investment position (IIP) and reduce net errors and omissions. In addition, the revised 2023 BOP that will be disseminated in December 2023 was reviewed.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Dominica focuses on external sector statistics. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) and the Central Statistics Office have implemented recommendations from the previous mission regarding timeliness and data accessibility. The mission focused on improving data sources for travel credits and the Citizenship by Investment Program (CBI) flows for the balance of payments. Revised 2022 balance of payments estimates were reviewed; additional refinement is needed. The ECCB has been incorporating available cash-based data on CBI flows from the fiscal sector into the balance of payments. However, fiscal data for 2021 and 2022 show some possible misclassifications that would affect the correct recording of external flows in the balance of payments. The report highlights that follow-up on the request made to the CBI to complete the ECCB balance of payments questionnaires for 2021 and 2022 and report on the existence of foreign escrow accounts. Coordination between data-producing agencies needs to be improved. A survey of cruise passengers is required to improve the estimates of visitor expenditure; visitors that arrive by yatchs are not surveyed either.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A remote technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Statistics Department of Dominica (SDD) during August 30 to September 10, 2021. The mission was carried out as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) statistics for Dominica are compiled jointly by the SDD and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB).1 In this context, three staff from the ECCB participated in the mission in their capacity of ESS compilers for Dominica. Fadhila Alfaraj of the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) joined the mission.
Vivian Parlak
,
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
, and
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries’ tourism dependency.
Ms. Evridiki Tsounta
This paper investigates the determinants of tourism demand in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. We estimate the demand function in a panel setting using annual data from 1979 to 2005. Results show that tourism arrivals are significantly affected by economic developments in the source countries, while price considerations and external shocks (such as hurricanes and wars) are also important. Supply factors, such as developments in foreign direct investment and the number of airlines servicing a destination, are also found to be significant determinants of tourism demand.
Ms. Jingqing Chai
and
Rishi Goyal
Tax concessions have been employed as a central component of the development strategy in the small island states comprising the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. This paper compares the costs of concessions in terms of revenues forgone with the benefits in terms of increased foreign direct investment. The costs are very large, while the benefits appear to be marginal at best. Forgone tax revenues range between 9½ and 16 percent of GDP per year, whereas total foreign direct investment does not appear to depend on concessions. A rethinking of the use of concessions in the region is needed urgently.