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Western Hemisphere > Dominica

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Business Fluctuations; Cycles x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU: Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Shernnel Thompson
This paper assesses the determinants of NPLs in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and whether a deterioration in asset quality may result in negative feedback effects from the banking system to economic activity. The results suggest that the deterioration in asset quality can be attributed to both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. Banks with stronger profitability and lower exposure to the construction sector and household loans tend to have lower NPLs. Further, some evidence indicates that foreign owned banks systematically have lower NPLs than domestic banks, pointing to the presence of important differences across bank practices with an impact on asset quality. Finally, the results emphasize the strength of macrofinancial feedback loops in the ECCU.
Keywords:
WP; asset quality; NPL ratio; real GDP; dummy variable; Macrofinancial linkages; non-performing loans; credit growth; feedback effects; force bank; return on assets; ownership structure; economic activity; coverage data sets; bank asset quality; resolution process; Nonperforming loans; Foreign banks; Credit; Loans; Commercial banks; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Cycles in the Caribbean
The sharp increase in debt in the Caribbean since the mid-1990s has focused attention on the conduct of fiscal policy in the region. This paper aims to diagnose how fiscal policy has behaved during this period by looking at three main cycles of the economy: the business, election, and natural disaster cycles. Our main findings suggest that fiscal policy has been mostly procyclical in the region, while disasters have been heavily "insured" by foreign transfers. The "when it rains, it pours" phenomena suggested by Kaminsky, Reinhart and Vegh (2004) seems to take place in the Caribbean.
Keywords:
WP; government; ECCU country; Procyclicality; fiscal accounts; natural disasters; Caribbean; ECCU economy; ECCU value; government consumption growth; capital revenue; Fiscal stance; Business cycles
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Climatic and External Shocks
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
and
Mr. Paul Cashin
This paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output-but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. An increase in oil prices (external demand) is contractionary (expansionary), and the effects dissipate up to three years after the shock.
Keywords:
WP; external shock; economy; real interest rate; output fluctuation; open economy; Business cycle; external shocks; VAR; block exogeneity; Eastern Caribbean; oil price shock; ECCU country; economy block; world real interest rate shock; Real interest rates; Oil prices; Natural disasters; Business cycles; Vector autoregression; Caribbean; Global