Western Hemisphere > Dominica

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Emilio Fernández Corugedo
,
Andres Gonzalez
, and
Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
This paper presents a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to evaluate the macroeconomic return of adaptation investment to natural disasters (NDs) and the impact of climate change. While the model follows the existing literature in assuming that NDs destroy a share of the public and private capital stocks and a government that can invest in adaptation at an additional cost, it adds several features that are key to the analysis, both in the near (transition) and long (steady state) terms. Those include incomplete markets, financial frictions with collateral constraints, foreign remittances, full menu of tax and government spending instruments, and endogenous climate risk premium. The model is calibrated to the case of Dominica. It finds that NDs have large and persistent negative effects on output and public finances. It also shows that adaptation investment has large returns in terms of private investment, employment, output and tax revenue in the long term, especially under climate change.
International Monetary Fund
This 2001 Article IV Consultation highlights that in recent years, economy of St. Vincent and the Grenadines has diversified from bananas into services, mainly tourism, telephone and Internet-based marketing, and offshore financial services. However, the rate of economic growth declined sharply to 2 percent in 2000. The external current account deficit is estimated to have doubled to about 16½ percent of GDP in 2001 largely owing to a decline in banana export volumes, higher imports, and a slowdown in tourism receipts and remittances.