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Western Hemisphere > Dominica

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Dominica: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (July 15–26, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Dominica as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data gaps and improving statistical techniques for travel exports and direct investment to enhance the accuracy of the balance of payments (BOP) and the international investment position (IIP) and reduce net errors and omissions. In addition, the revised 2023 BOP that will be disseminated in December 2023 was reviewed.
Keywords:
Dominica; balance of payments statistics.; BOP survey; Dominica authority; BOP estimate; CBI program transaction; IMF's Statistics Department; External sector statistics; International investment position; Pension spending; Foreign direct investment; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Dominica
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Dominican economy has recovered strongly following the pandemic shock. Real gross domestic product grew by 5.6 percent in 2022 and an estimated 4.7 percent in 2023 returning to pre-pandemic output levels. Policy responses have eroded essential fiscal buffers, despite large Citizenship by Investment (CBI) revenues, which have supported reconstruction, infrastructure development, and climate adaptation. The country remains exposed to shocks, while tight fiscal space constrains development initiatives. The ongoing economic expansion provides an opportunity to rebuild essential buffers and reorient policies toward increasing prospects for more sustained and resilient growth. Dominica’s output has recovered to its pre-pandemic level, reflecting a rebound in tourism and public investment, supported by buoyant CBI revenues. Inflation has subsided from its 2022 peak, but external imbalances have deteriorated modestly. Banks remain well capitalized and liquid although credit unions suffer from persistent weak capital and asset quality. The outlook is subject to downside risks, especially from climate change, volatile tourism receipts, commodity prices, and CBI revenues. Meanwhile, longstanding impediments to private investment and employment weigh on growth and productivity. Policy priorities are to address fiscal and external imbalances while enhancing the basis for sustained and resilient growth.
Keywords:
CBI revenue; CBI program framework; financing strategy; core price inflation; macroeconomic policy; Fiscal stance; Credit; Caribbean; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Dominica: Technical Assistance Report-Improving Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (August 29–September 8, 2023)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A joint CARTAC, IMF capacity development engagement with the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in the Ministry of Finance in Dominica to improve estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was undertaken. The capacity development focused on three main aspects: supporting improvements of the GDP series in line with the 2008 SNA standards, including training for re-referencing the volume estimates of GDP; identifying data holdings which could be used to improve the quality of the estimates; and developing a work program for improving the timeliness of macroeconomic statistics in Dominica. Administrative data including value added tax data was used to compliment survey based estimates to enhance the current price estimates of GDP. To identify potential other data sources, meetings with various government stakeholders took place to discuss accessibility of data to continue to improve the quality of the macroeconomic estimates in the future. In addition to re-referencing the volume estimates of GDP to 2018 prices (from the existing 2006 base year), refinements to the GDP compilation system were developed to increase the capacity development of the staff to maintain and update the compilation of macroeconomic statistics in the future.
Keywords:
GDP; Administrative Data; Value Added Tax; Re-Referencing; SNA; Dominica.; IMF's statistics department; Dominica export import agency; IMF executive directors; business processing documentation; CSO in the Ministry of Finance; Value-added tax; Civil society organizations; Agricultural sector; Agricultural exports; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Dominica focuses on external sector statistics. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) and the Central Statistics Office have implemented recommendations from the previous mission regarding timeliness and data accessibility. The mission focused on improving data sources for travel credits and the Citizenship by Investment Program (CBI) flows for the balance of payments. Revised 2022 balance of payments estimates were reviewed; additional refinement is needed. The ECCB has been incorporating available cash-based data on CBI flows from the fiscal sector into the balance of payments. However, fiscal data for 2021 and 2022 show some possible misclassifications that would affect the correct recording of external flows in the balance of payments. The report highlights that follow-up on the request made to the CBI to complete the ECCB balance of payments questionnaires for 2021 and 2022 and report on the existence of foreign escrow accounts. Coordination between data-producing agencies needs to be improved. A survey of cruise passengers is required to improve the estimates of visitor expenditure; visitors that arrive by yatchs are not surveyed either.
Keywords:
Dominica; balance of payments statistics.; balance of payments statement; balance of payments estimate; business visitor; VES result; visitor expenditure questionnaire; ECCB website; Civil society organizations; External sector statistics; International investment position; Credit; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report for Dominica
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Dominican economy is recovering strongly following the pandemic. Fiscal space remains tight. High Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue, nearing a record 30 percent of gross domestic product in recent years, has supported public investment and crisis response measures. The economic outlook is positive, predicated on a continued expansion in tourism and implementation of the country’s economic modernization and resilience building agenda The transition to local geothermal energy production and construction of a new airport, planned for the coming years, will sustain economic activity, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, bolster resilience to external shocks, and improve international connectivity. Meanwhile, public debt is set to decline gradually in coming years, supported by efforts to reduce current spending and strengthen tax collection. Building policy buffers and critical infrastructure will help address downside risks stemming from global economic uncertainty, climate change, and volatility of CBI revenue.
Keywords:
CBI revenue; investment goods; CBI program; debt ratio; fuel price policy; Fiscal stance; Credit; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A remote technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Statistics Department of Dominica (SDD) during August 30 to September 10, 2021. The mission was carried out as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) statistics for Dominica are compiled jointly by the SDD and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB).1 In this context, three staff from the ECCB participated in the mission in their capacity of ESS compilers for Dominica. Fadhila Alfaraj of the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) joined the mission.
Keywords:
IMF's Statistics Department; International monetary fund 1Canada; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; balance of payments summary; deficit of EC; External sector statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Imports; Current account deficits; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Dominica
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Dominica has been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, with an estimated decline in GDP of 11 percent in 2020 underpinned by a sharp reduction in tourism receipts that affected connected sectors and by lockdown measures to limit virus contagion. The output decline was contained by health spending, social transfers, and public investment resilient to natural disasters which increased significantly, leading to an increase in public debt to 106 percent of GDP despite record-high Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue. The financial sector remained stable and liquid, but vulnerability continue to be significant in the under-capitalized non-bank sector.
Keywords:
CBI revenue; authorities of Dominica; authorities' effort; pandemic well; response to the pandemic; Natural disasters; Public investment spending; COVID-19; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock
Vivian Parlak
,
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
, and
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries’ tourism dependency.
Keywords:
FDI windfall; passport sale; ECCU economy; shocks lead; tourism shock; Oil prices; Tourism; Foreign direct investment; Current account balance; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2021 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.
Keywords:
ECCU economy; ECCU member states; ECCU country; ECCU price aggregate; headline indicator; COVID-19; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Tourism; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Grenada: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility; Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Grenada’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. IMF financing support provides resources to the countries’ authorities for essential health-related expenditures and income support to ease the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on the population. The countries’ governments have responded to the pandemic by swiftly implementing containment measures, allocating scarce budgetary resources to critical health care spending, and introducing income support to the most affected sectors and households. Protection of the financial system will help cushion the economic impact of the pandemic. Measures have also been taken by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank to facilitate the provision of credit and safeguard financial stability. Going forward, and once the current crisis dissipates, the authorities intend to push ahead with a comprehensive Disaster Resilience Strategy aimed at building resilience to natural disasters. They are also committed to further strengthening financial sector oversight to safeguard macro-financial stability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff appraisal; request proceeds; IMF financing support; transparency obligation; Grenadian authorities; staff's assessment; COVID-19; Balance of payments need; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global